Best NBA Player Props Today: AD Comes Out Strong in Home Opener

Prop bet #1: On a mission

Giannis made his feelings clear heading into this season, and the Milwaukee Bucks wasted no time in swinging a deal to boost their title chances. There’s going to be a buzz at Fiserv Forum for Damian Lillard’s Milwaukee debut, but I see the Greek Freak grabbing the headlines.

Fueled by last season’s shock first-round playoff exit and the frustration of being an afterthought for some voters in the MVP race, this is set up to be a monster year for Antetokounmpo. I see him laying down a marker here with one of his trademark stat lines.

I like the Over on Giannis’ points and rebounds tonight, and I’m combining them for a line that feels well within reach. He averaged 31 points and almost 12 rebounds a game last season — and, if anything, Lillard’s arrival should open up more scoring opportunities for the 2021 Finals MVP with better spacing and fewer double teams.

Going up against the Philadelphia 76ers tends to bring out the best in Antetokounmpo. He had 33 points and 14 boards in a late-season matchup and posted a 34-13-4 line in a meeting back in March. The Bucks are catching the 76ers at the perfect time here, with Philadelphia establishing a new identity under Nick Nurse and looking less menacing without Harden’s playmaking. 

Unless this turns into a blowout — which feels unlikely — I expect new Milwaukee head coach Adrian Griffin to unleash Giannis for big minutes. That feels like a recipe for eye-popping numbers on both ends of the floor.

Giannis Antetokounmpo prop: Over 38.5 points + rebounds

Prop bet #2: To the Max

Harden was a big factor for the 76ers last season, averaging 21 points and 10.7 assists, but his heavy usage often left Tyrese Maxey as a bystander. The 22-year-old still scored 20 points a night last year, but he was barely scratching the surface of what he could bring to the table.

That won’t be an issue in this season opener with The Beard sitting out and Maxey holding the keys to run the offense. Whether Harden ultimately gets traded or stays in Philadelphia, the door is wide open for Maxey, a strong Most Improved Player candidate, to dominate in the short term.

With the Bucks set to reach new heights offensively this year, the 76ers are going to need Maxey’s speed and shot making to keep the score close tonight. I love the Over on his points prop, with a line that’s barely above his 2022/23 scoring average.

Those odds look even better when you consider Philadelphia's guards won’t have to deal with Jrue Holiday’s relentless defense. This is the type of matchup that Milwaukee is going to need to find answers for without a true perimeter stopper. Lillard is not that guy.

Maxey hasn’t shied away against this long-armed Milwaukee defense in the past, and he averaged 23 points over the teams’ four meetings last season, including a 29-point outburst.

Philadelphia needs Maxey to be in attack mode, and I’m picking the 76ers' guard to get off to a flier in this season opener.

Tyrese Maxey prop: Over 21.5 points

Prop bet #3: AD Answers

Not for the first time, LeBron James was adamant in the preseason that Anthony Davis has a clear runway to take over the Los Angeles Lakers offense, allowing The King to play second fiddle in a year where his minutes are seemingly going to be managed more cautiously.

But AD has to prove he can deliver consistently in that role. He gave the doubters plenty of material on Tuesday night, coming up short again in his battle with Nikola Jokic.

Davis scored 17 points in the first half against the Denver Nuggets but was anonymous the rest of the way, failing to register a single point in the second half. He was a -17 in 34 minutes — and unsurprisingly, the criticism was stinging.

But I’m not dwelling on those way-too-early overreactions. While 6-for-17 shooting in the season opener was a huge disappointment, I see Davis, who shot 56% from the field last season, having a more efficient night here.

He’s got an athleticism edge against Jusuf Nurkic and his size will present a different challenge for a Phoenix Suns' defense that held the guard-heavy Golden State Warriors to 36% shooting on Tuesday night.

The Lakers started 0-5 last season and they can’t afford to dig themselves an early hole again. I’m counting on Davis to lead the way with big offensive numbers tonight.

Anthony Davis prop: Over 22.5 points