Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Giannis Doesn't Play Down to Competition

It’s a Halloween edition of our daily NBA player props, and we’ve got an exciting seven-game slate to pick from. 

Our favorite props for Monday, October 31 include Trae Young beating the Raptors' pressure, the Sacramento Kings turning the tap off on Kelly Oubre Jr., and Giannis Antetokounmpo beating up on some tired Pistons.

Let’s dive in with our NBA picks and predictions.

NBA player props for October 31

• Young Over 9.5 asts (+110)
• Oubre Under 2.5 3-pointers (+105)
• Antetokounmpo Over 32.5 pts (-104)

Picks made on 10/31/2022 at 1:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Trae Young at heart

The Toronto Raptors seem like a miserable team to play against. Other than Fred VanVleet, practically every person in the rotation is an above-average-sized wing with a seemingly endless wingspan. They’re physical, and they play an aggressive style that’s meant to wear on opponents and force mistakes so they can get out on the break.

Against most players, even great ones, this tactic has proven quite successful over time.

Trae Young is one of the few exceptions, though. Trae thrives under that same pressure. He’s so small and quick that Toronto has trouble applying the pressure to him in the first place. Because he’s a threat to shoot at literally any point once he reaches halfcourt, he creates such a big functional area to operate in that even Toronto’s length and hard hedges struggle to ensnare him.

Trae from across the street ???? pic.twitter.com/zcT7KidcpP

— Atlanta Hawks (@ATLHawks) October 30, 2022

Since he is also always a threat to drive and an equal parts deadly and flamboyant alley-oop passer, he sucks defenders toward him as soon as he drives. Every Young attack can just as easily turn into an open three for his teammates as it can be an opportunity for Trae himself to score. The Raptors allow more threes than any team save the Philadelphia 76ers, so the rest of the Atlanta Hawks should have good looks off of Trae’s dimes.

The record speaks for itself. In his last eight games against the Raptors, Trae has averaged 12 assists and over that same span, he’s only once totaled fewer than 10. Putting two on the ball, or close to it, simply spells doom against Young. 

Against the Raptors, “Ice Trae” is a scheme buster.

Trae Young Prop: Over 9.5 assists (+110)

Oubre's off night

The Sacramento Kings, who currently own the longest streak of not making the playoffs in North American professional sports (congrats, Mariners) have in that time never once had even an average defensive rating. That should be basically impossible. So, when the Kings hired Mike Brown, there was only one mandate and one hope. Please, please, just improve the defense. 

The Kings have started at a discouraging 1-4 and are currently ranked in the Bottom 10 in terms of defensive rating. Dig a little deeper though and you see a promising sea change taking hold in Sactown.

Yes, the Kings have a poor defensive rating so far. But that’s mostly a matter of unfortunate opponent shooting luck. In terms of scheme, the Kings are forcing opponents into all the right kinds of shots. They are striking a fine balance between limiting opponent threes (fewest in the NBA) and shots at the rim (eighth fewest). By opponent effective field goal percentage, they should be performing at the level of a Top-5 defense.

That their emphasis has been in denying 3-pointers, and that they’ve proven so effective at it, is the basis for this prop. Kelly Oubre Jr. is a mercurial shooter at the best of times and is only shooting 31.6% this season on 6.3 attempts per game. He’s only hit the Over at 2.5 threes in two of his six Hornets games this season. Getting plus money to bet against him doing it against a team devoted above all to denying easy shots from outside is incredible value.

Kelly Oubre Jr. Prop: Under 2.5 threes made (+105)

Giannis posters Pistons

Sometimes, it’s best just not to overthink these things. The line on Giannis’ scoring tonight is set two points below his season’s average of 34.4 and he’s playing a scrappy but well-overmatched Detroit Pistons team. On top of that, the Pistons played in Golden State last night and had to travel to Milwaukee immediately after. Under the best of conditions, the Pistons' collection of promising but wildly inexperienced frontcourt players would have their hands full with the “Freak” and the best of conditions these are not.

Giannis dropped 17 points in the 4th quarter & helped sealed the win.

34 PTS | 17 REB | 4 AST | 1 BLK pic.twitter.com/VEjztKSIJN

— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) October 30, 2022

Plus, there is never the worry about betting on Giannis that he might take the night off. When Giannis is in the game, he is going to try at every moment to destroy you. He is inevitable.

It’s why watching him and his brothers participate in the 2021-22 All-Star Skills Challenge was so compelling. Even given the lowest possible stakes, Giannis played like it was Game 7 of the NBA Finals.

By comparison, he may as well be playing for Greece’s first gold medal in basketball tonight. I expect him to dominate.

Giannis Antetokounmpo Prop: Over 32.5 points (-104)

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