The Mavericks have gotten plenty of criticism for trading away Luka Doncic for an injured Anthony Davis. That said, the departure of the superstar guard has led to some stellar performances from Kyrie Irving, who's now the unquestioned top dog in Dallas.
My NBA picks are betting on Irving to have a big game tonight and I'm also backing Grizzlies center Zach Edey while fading Kings guard DeMar DeRozan. Here are my best NBA player props for Saturday, March 1.
Best NBA player props today
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DeRozan Under 20.5 points (-115 at bet365) -
Edey Over 8.5 rebounds (-120 at bet365) -
Irving Over 28.5 points (-115 at bet365)
NBA player props for March 1
DeMar DeRozan Under 20.5 points (-115 at bet365)
DeMar DeRozan has scored fewer than 20.5 points in nine of his last 14 games and has a tough matchup today. The Sacramento Kings are on the road against the Houston Rockets, who are fourth in the NBA in defensive rating and have been playing at the fifth-slowest pace over the last month.
DeRozan is a dying breed as a mid-range specialist and he also sits in the Top 20th percentile in post-up frequency and off-ball efficiency. The Rockets have the top-rated defense against post-up shots and off-screen plays while ranking second in midrange defense, per ShotQualityBets.
He's also seen his field goal attempts slightly tick down since Sacramento traded De’Aaron Fox for Zach LaVine.
Zach Edey Over 8.5 rebounds (-120 at bet365)
With Victor Wembanyama done for the season and backup center Charles Bassey sidelined for the third-straight game with a knee injury, the San Antonio Spurs have been forced to go small. That's led to them getting killed in the interior and sitting last in the league in rebounding rate (43.8%) since the All-Star break.
That small-ball lineup has led to them playing at the sixth-fastest pace since the break and they also rank just 26th in FG% (42.6%) over that span. That combination of fast tempo, a ton of missed shots, and poor rebounding should result in plenty of available boards for the Memphis Grizzlies tonight.
Expect Memphis big man Zach Edey to take advantage of the Spurs lack of size to dominate the glass. The 7-foot-4, 305-pound rook averaged 9.2 rebounds per game in February and has pulled down 9+ boards in three of his last five games.
Kyrie Irving Over 28.5 points (-115 at bet365)
With Luka Doncic traded away and Anthony Davis still sidelined, the Dallas Mavericks are Kyrie Irving's team. Irving has been carrying the scoring load with the nine-time All-Star clearly the best offensive player on the Mavs. He's dropped 30+ points in four of his last six games and is poised for another big performance tonight against the Milwaukee Bucks.
With their fast tempo and middling defensive play, the Bucks are 17th in the league in points per game allowed (116.1) over the last 15 games. They've been especially bad at defending point guards, ranking 27th in the league in ppg allowed (24.5) and field goal percentage allowed (45.8%) to the position.
It's also worth noting that Dallas is a 3.5-point underdog tonight and Irving's minutes, field goal attempts, and scoring rates have all significantly increased when the Mavs lose.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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