Best NBA Player Props Today: Anthony Davis Goes Down Swinging

Anthony Davis has been carrying a heavy offensive load for the Lakers, and with the Nuggets on the verge of a sweep, our NBA prop picks don't see that changing tonight.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Apr 27, 2024 • 11:19 ET • 4 min read
Anthony Davis NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

We've got a jam-packed Saturday of playoff basketball with four NBA games staggered throughout the day.

I dig into the NBA odds for the three later games and bring you my favorite player props, including Anthony Davis with the Lakers facing elimination at home. Here are my best free NBA picks and player props for April 27.

Best NBA player props today

Picks made on 4-27 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

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NBA player props for April 27

Prop bet #1: CJ McCollum Over 2.5 turnovers

The Pelicans are down 2-0 in their series against the Thunder and desperately need a win at home this afternoon. That desperation could result in guard CJ McCollum trying to do too much and getting sloppy with the ball.

The Thunder love to pressure ball-handlers and lead the NBA in opponent turnover rate. McCollum had four turnovers in Game 2 after turning the ball over three times in the series opener. He has now posted 3+ turnovers in nine of 12 total games this month. Expect him to try and force things in this contest, which should lead to him going Over his turnovers prop.

CJ McCollum prop: Over 2.5 turnovers (-130 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Bam Adebayo under 3.5 assists

Bam Adebayo has solid passing ability for a big man, but his assists numbers have ticked down over the last month. 

By the end of March, the Heat center was averaging 4.0 assists and 6.5 potential assists per game, but in April, those regular season numbers dropped to 3.1 apg and 5.6 potential apg across eight contests. Those numbers have dipped even more in the postseason, with Adebayo averaging just 2.5 assists and 5.0 potential apg through four playoff and play-in games. 

Adebayo had just a pair of assists in Game 2, despite his teammates knocking down outside shots at an absurd rate. With Adebayo going below this number in nine of his last 12 games, play the Under 3.5 tonight.

Bam Adebayo prop: Under 3.5 assists (+100 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Anthony Davis Over 26.5 points

The Lakers are on the verge of getting swept, but Anthony Davis keeps producing at an elite level. Davis scored 33 points on 14-23 shooting in Game 3, and he has now dropped 32+ points in every game this series.

The nine-time All-Star averaged 24.7 ppg during the regular season, but that was in 35.5 mpg, and he typically sees an uptick in playing time during the playoffs. He averaged 26.8 ppg in 41.2 mpg when the Lakers were swept by the Nuggets in the Western Conference Finals last year, and he's logging 42.3 mpg this series.

If the Nuggets were losing games, then coach Michael Malone might gameplan to slow down AD. However, with Denver's success, he seems just fine with letting AD get his points and slowing down L.A.'s supporting cast. With the Lakers on the brink of elimination, expect them to get the ball into the hands of Davis and LeBron James as much as possible.

Anthony Davis prop: Over 26.5 points (-108 at DraftKings)

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Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports.

Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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