You can't watch the modern NBA without noticing the massive impact of talented players from outside the United States. That will be on full display tonight with my NBA picks backing a trio of European big men on their player props.
See why I'm betting on Jakob Poeltl, Kristaps Porzingis, and Domantas Sabonis with my best NBA player props for Thursday, December 12.
Best NBA player props today
- Poeltl Over 14.5 points (-115 at bet365)
- Porzingis Over 19.5 points (-115 at bet365)
- Sabonis Over 5.5 assists (-115 at bet365)
Picks made on 12-12 at 12:15 p.m. ET.
NBA player props for December 12
Prop bet #1: Jakob Poeltl Over 14.5 points
Just as the Toronto Raptors were starting to play competitive ball, Scottie Barnes suffered an ankle injury on Monday night and will be out for several weeks. While the Raps will certainly be worse without their best player, center Jakob Poeltl should see an uptick in his shot attempts and points.
In 13 games with Barnes in the lineup this season, Poeltl has averaged 13.4 points per game. That number surges to 18.9 ppg in 11 contests with Barnes out.
Despite the presence of Bam Adebayo down low, the Miami Heat have been a middle-of-the-pack team defensively. They are 15th in the NBA at defending the rim per ShotQualityBets and 12th at defending post-up plays while also ranking 15th in points in the paint allowed per game (47.5).
The Raps have faced the Heat twice over the last couple of weeks with Poeltl scoring 17 points against them on December 1 and dropping 24 points in Miami on November 29.
Prop bet #2: Kristaps Porzingis Over 19.5 points
The Boston Celtics and Detroit Pistons face off tonight and both sides will be well rested since they haven't played since last Saturday.
These teams clashed last week with Boston winning 130-120 despite red-hot outside shooting from Detroit. Celtics big man Kristaps Porzingis was a big part of that victory, scoring 26 points with nine boards in 29 minutes.
Porzingis began the season on the IL as he recovered from offseason foot surgery and he didn't make his season debut until November 25. He logged just 23 minutes in his first game back and dropped 16 points.
He has since played four games and has seen his playing time steadily tick up, playing a season-high 33 minutes in his last contest against Memphis on Saturday. He has scored at least 21 points in three of those four contests.
The Celtics have been careful not to overwork Porzingis but since he's enjoyed four days off, he should see plenty of the floor tonight. That should be enough for him to hit the 20-point plateau against a Pistons squad that is below average defensively.
Prop bet #3: Domantas Sabonis Over 5.5 assists
If Nikola Jokic wasn't the greatest passing big man of all time, Domantas Sabonis would probably get even more attention for his elite passing prowess.
The big man racked up 7.3 assists per game in 2023 before averaging a whopping 8.2 apg last season. Sabonis' passing numbers are down a bit this season but he still leads the Sacramento Kings with 6.2 apg and has dropped 6+ dimes in four of his last six contests.
The New Orleans Pelicans have struggled on their own end of the floor, ranking 28th in the league in defensive rating and 27th in assists per game allowed (28.6). They also rank 27th in threes allowed per game (14.3), so expect Sabonis to get the ball in the post and kick the ball out to his teammates on the perimeter.
His ability to throw outlet passes and find cutters will also help him pad his assists total against a Pels side that struggles in transition defense and does a poor job of protecting the rim.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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