Thursday’s NBA betting board features only five games, but there are endless ways to wager on tonight’s action, including NBA player props.
I dig into the lineups, matchups, and projections with my best NBA picks for February 27.
Best NBA player props today
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Jamal Murray Over 3.5 rebounds (-105 at bet365) -
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 assists (+130 at bet365) -
Naz Reid Under 21.5 points (-120 at bet365)
NBA player props for February 27
Jamal Murray Over 3.5 rebounds (-105 at bet365)
Denver Nuggets’ point guard Jamal Murray leads his team into an interesting non-conference clash with the Milwaukee Bucks. Murray’s scoring and playmaking remain a staple of the Nuggets’ success, but his rebounding chops have taken a dip in recent games.
After pulling down about four rebounds an outing all season, Murray has snatched an average of only 2.4 boards in nine games this month. Murray would routinely have rebounding totals of 3.5 with the Over juiced or have the bar at 4.5 boards O/U this season.
But with his efforts on the glass going quiet and Murray staying Under his total in seven of the last nine games, the market has swung and Over 3.5 rebounds is discounted heading into this matchup in Milwaukee.
Overall, the Bucks aren’t a great rebounding team. Milwaukee sits 20th in rebound rate and watches foes snatch 53.5 boards per game — 23rd in the league. The Bucks are down top rebounder Bobby Portis (suspension) while superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo is playing through a calf injury.
Player forecasts for Murray range from 3.6 rebounds to 4.3, which gives punch to the Over. My projections comes out to 4.2 boards from the 6-foot-4 Canadian product tonight. Murray has been more active on the glass in road games, pulling down 4.0 boards as a visitor compared to just 3.5 rebounds per homestand.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 assists (+130 at bet365)
February in Florida is still pretty warm, but it hasn’t stopped Kentavious Caldwell-Pope from going ice cold from the floor.
The Orlando Magic veteran guard is shooting just 40% from the field this month and hasn’t cracked double-digits in points since January 21. It’s costing him floor time as well, with his minutes dipping in recent outings.
However, while his shot isn’t dropping, KCP can impact the offense in other ways. He’s dished out six assists over the past three games, and his assist prop for tonight is presenting a healthy payout should Caldwell-Pope put two dimes in his box score.
On the season, the 6-foot-5 guard is generating 3.4 potential assists a contest. Player projections for tonight are all leaning toward at least two helpers, with some forecasts surpassing two assists.
Those models range from 1.7 to 2.2, with my assist number conjuring 1.9 dimes from KCP. Based on that projection, the Over 1.5 assists should be priced as high as -120 but we’re getting +130 on this option, with the expectations tempered due to playing time and his overall passing prowess.
Naz Reid Under 21.5 points (-120 at bet365)
Naz Reid has been a steady force for the Minnesota Timberwolves this month. The versatile 6-foot-8 forward is averaging more than 20 points per game in February and has scored 22 points or more in eight of his last 10 games — going Over his scoring total in each outing.
That output has the market pulling a severe course correction when Minnesota meets the Lakers tonight. After drawing point totals between 16.5 and 18.5 O/U for most of the month, books have pumped up Reid’s bar to 21.5 points tonight.
Injuries to the T-Wolves’ starting lineup have led to this surge in scoring from Reid, with his touches and field goal attempts soaring in that 10-game frame. But despite that boost in offensive involvement, Reid’s scoring projections are tempered against Los Angeles.
All models come in shorter than the 21.5-point total, ranging from 13.9 to 19.4 points. My number comes out just north of 17 points from Reid, presenting an opportunity to buy back the adjustment on this bigger prop total. Given that forecast, the Under 21.5 should be asking -300.
Minnesota could get back starting guard Donte DiVincenzo, which would take some touches away, and Reid sees a notable blip in scoring away from home. He averages just 13.6 points on 45.9% shooting as a visitor, compared to 16.1 ppg on 49.3% success at home.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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