Playoff basketball emphasizes defense and features teams playing significantly slower than they do in the regular season. That's why my NBA picks for today are betting the Under on a pair of player props for Luka Doncic and Kevin Porter Jr.
That said, we saw a fast pace between a pair of up-tempo teams in the Thunder-Grizzlies series, so expect another productive game from Chet Holmgren.
Here are my favorite NBA player props for Tuesday, April 22.
Best NBA player props today
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Porter Jr. Under 4.5 assists (-130 at bet365) -
Holmgren Over 15.5 points (-115 at bet365) -
Doncic Under 9.5 rebounds (-130 at bet365)
NBA player props for April 22
Kevin Porter Jr. Under 4.5 assists (-130 at bet365)
Damian Lillard is questionable for today, and the Milwaukee Bucks desperately need him after getting crushed 117-98 in the series opener. It's tough to bet on Lillard's props since we don't know how much he'll play after missing the last month due to a blood clot.
Even if his minutes are suppressed, he'll cut into the playing time and usage rate of Kevin Porter Jr., who dropped five dimes in 29 minutes in Game 1. Porter has averaged 19.9 minutes per game and 3.7 assists per game since being acquired by the Bucks at the trade deadline.
Howeve, those numbers are inflated since Lillard was sidelined, as he has averaged 25.6 minutes per game and 5.0 assists per game over the last month. In 15 games with Dame in the lineup, Porter averaged a modest 2.9 assists in 15.5 minutes of action.
Chet Holmgren Over 15.5 points (-115 at bet365)
The Memphis Grizzlies and Oklahoma City Thunder were two of the fastest teams in the NBA during the regular season. That up-tempo style continued in Game 1, with their pace of 108.5 being significantly higher than every other series.
Chet Holmgren dominated in Game 1, scoring 19 points and shooting 3-for-4 from beyond the arc. What was especially impressive about that performance was he did it in just 21 minutes since the Thunder blew out the Grizzlies by 51 points.
Expect a more competitive performance from Memphis in Game 2, which should lead to more minutes for Holmgren.
The 7-foot-1 unicorn dropped 20+ points in three of his final five regular-season games and is a matchup nightmare. The Grizzlies allowed the sixth-most points per game (23.2) and the most threes per game (3.0) to opposing power forwards during the regular season.
Luka Doncic Under 9.5 rebounds (-130 at bet365)
Luka Doncic averaged 8.1 rebounds per game in 28 contests with the Los Angeles Lakers, and it's surprising to see the O/U on his boards this high for Game 2.
Doncic grabbed eight rebounds in the series opener, and he's finished with fewer than 9.5 boards in 14 of his last 15 games. He won't find it easy to battle on the glass against a massive Minnesota Timberwolves frontcourt that always has at least two true bigs on the floor.
Playoff basketball is always far slower than the regular season, and Game 1 had a pace of just 88.0. For context, the Magic were the slowest team in the NBA during the regular season, with a pace almost 10% slower at 96.51. A slow-as-molasses tempo will lead to fewer possessions and lower numbers across the board for all players.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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