Public pounding favorites for Sunday's NBA playoff matchups

Patrick Everson • SPORTS BETTING INDUSTRY INSIDER
May 6, 2018 • 04:16 ET

The NBA playoffs trot out a pair of Game 4s on this spring Sunday, with both road teams solid favorites. Covers checks in on the action and line movement, with insights from Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US in Las Vegas. **video

No. 2 Golden State Warriors at No. 6 New Orleans Pelicans – Open: +4.5; Move: +5; Move: +5.5; Move: +6

Golden State, aiming for a fourth straight NBA Finals appearance, hit a little speed bump in Game 3 of the Western Conference semifinals. The Warriors (64-26 SU, 38-51-1 ATS) trailed almost the entire way Friday, including by 26 points in the fourth quarter, in a 119-100 loss as a 4.5-point road favorite.

New Orleans thereby climbed back into this series, after losing Games 1 and 2 on the road. The Pelicans (53-36 SU, 51-37-1 ATS) took the lead for good late in the first quarter, and after holding a 62-56 halftime edge blew the game open in the third quarter, outscoring the Warriors 30-19.

“We’re up to Warriors -6, but pretty good two-way action,” Bogdanovich said of wagering on this 3:30 p.m. ET clash. “I guess New Orleans’ Game 3 showing slowed the public down on the Warriors. But there’s a bunch of moneyline parlays on the favorite. We’ll need New Orleans, but not as big as we did in Game 3.”

No. 1 Houston Rockets at No. 5 Utah Jazz – Open: +5; Move: +5.5

Houston was dealt an unexpected home loss in Game 2 of this West semifinal, but bounced back with authority in Game 3 Friday. The Rockets (71-19 SU, 46-43-1 ATS) piled up 70 first-half points to take a massive 30-point lead, then coasted to a 113-92 victory as a 4.5-point road chalk.

That puts Utah in a must-win position for this 8 p.m. ET tipoff, in order to avoid going back to Houston in a 3-1 hole. The Jazz (53-38 SU, 47-44 ATS) opened Game 3 with a 3-pointer for the home crowd, but it quickly went downhill as they gave up the next eight points and found themselves down 37-15 late in the first quarter.

“We’ll definitely need Utah,” Bogdanovich said. “All the money is on Houston. It’s all public money on the Rockets.”

Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning – Open: -175; Move: -170; Move: -165

Tampa Bay is on the brink of the conference finals after stealing Games 3 and 4 on the road to take a 3-1 series lead. After rolling to a 4-1 Game 3 victory, the Lightning (61-25-5) posted a 4-3 overtime in Game 4 Friday as a +137 road underdog.

Boston started this series off well with a road win in Game 1, but now finds itself on the road in an elimination game. The Bruins (55-26-12) rallied from an early 2-0 deficit in Game 4, even taking a 3-2 lead in the third period. But they gave up the equalizer with seven minutes left in regulation and lost when Tampa’s Dan Girardi found the net barely three minutes into overtime.

“It’s light, nothing much to this first hockey game,” Bogdanovich said of limited action on a 3 p.m. ET puck drop. “But that’ll change closer to game time.”

Vegas Golden Knights at San Jose Sharks – Open: -140; Move: -135

Vegas can send its Cinderella inaugural season into the Western Conference finals with a win tonight in Game 6 of the conference semis. The Golden Knights (58-26-7) piled up a 4-0 lead in Game 5 Friday, then weathered three straight late goals from San Jose and hung on for a 5-3 victory laying -152 at home.

San Jose now needs a win in this 7:30 p.m. ET faceoff to extend the series to seven games. But the Sharks (51-30-10) at least have something to build on, thanks to that big Game 5 rally. San Jose trailed 4-0 after a Vegas goal 8:36 into the third period, then scored three times in a six-minute stretch to pull within 4-3 before the Knights got an empty-net goal to end the comeback.

“We opened San Jose -140 and we’re down to -135,” Bogdanovich said. “All the money so far has been on Vegas.”

Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.

 

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