Raptors vs Nuggets Picks and Predictions: Jokic Dominates — But Is It Enough?

The Toronto Raptors knocked off the Phoenix Suns as underdogs last night and will try to repeat the feat this evening as they visit one of the NBA's hottest teams — the Denver Nuggets.

Denver took a deflating L to the Golden State Warriors last time out, getting outscored 62-42 in the second half. Prior to that, the Nugs were 9-1 in their last 10 games, refusing to fade from the chase for homecourt in the West. 

Find out which side has the betting edge for tonight's matchup with our free NBA picks and predictions for Raptors vs. Nuggets on Saturday, March 12. 

Raptors vs Nuggets odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Denver opened as a 5.5-point favorite at most outlets, seeing that number quickly bet up to 6, and even 6.5 in some spots. The total has been bet down from 225 opening to 223.5 as of late Saturday morning.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Raptors vs Nuggets predictions

• Prediction: Raptors +6.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 223.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Jokic Over 48.5 pts+rebs+asts (-110)

Predictions made on 3/12/2022 at 11:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Raptors vs Nuggets game info

• Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
• Date: Saturday, March 12, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Altitude Sports, TSN

Raptors vs Nuggets betting preview

Key injuries

Raptors: OG Anunoby SF (Out), Malachi Flynn PG (Out). 
Nuggets: Jamal Murray PG (Out), Michael Porter Jr. SF (Out), Will Barton SF (Out), Aaron Gordon PF (Questionable), Bones Hyland PG (Probable), Zeke Nnaji PF (Questionable). 
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Raptors are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Nuggets.

Raptors vs Nuggets picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

The Raptors escaped Phoenix with a win last night, but were lucky to do so after only scoring 21 points in the fourth and giving the Suns multiple chances to capitalize. The Raptors also needed 42 points from Gary Trent Jr., which, while not much of an anomaly, is well over twice his season average. 

After hopping on an overnight flight, they now must do it all again in what should be another close game — this time against the reigning MVP. 

Nikola Jokic has been on an utter rampage of late, dropping a comical 32.2/14.6/8.8 on 61.4% from the field so far in March. Whether he wants to admit it or not, Joker certainly seems to be putting on a strong MVP defense, and has dragged Denver's injury-riddled roster to within spitting distance of a Top-4 seed. 

Those injuries are going to be the main focus tonight, as joining long-termers Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray in suits will be Will Barton and possibly Aaron Gordon, who are both Denver's second and third-leading scorers, and key defensive cogs against the Raptors attack. 

Gordon is a tailor-made cover for Pascal Siakam, while Barton's the kind of disciplined, rangy defender that can hold Toronto's wings at bay. It's the kind of two-way loss that can sink a team that's already as shallow as the Nuggets. 

But Jokic will keep Denver afloat in any matchup, particularly against the Raptors, who have no real centers to give him any trouble in the paint. Last time they met, Joker mauled the Raptors down low in the first half — a 110-109 Nuggets win — before rope-a-doping them from the perimeter in the second. With Barton and possibly Gordon both out, we may see more of a focus on the pivot, and Denver flexing an edge Toronto's ill-equipped to contain. 

With that said though, it's just tough not to take the points here when we can get Toronto just north of three possessions. Even if the Raptors are on the tail-end of a back-to-back, they'll be coming out with a sense of urgency after almost letting last night's game slip. And yes, they'll be playing in mile-high Ball Arena, but that hasn't exactly been an advantage for Denver this season, at just 13-19 ATS at home. 

The Raptors likely won't get a repeat of last night's performance from Trent, but they can't possibly get a worse game from Fred VanVleet (3-for-11 shooting, 4 assists, 5 turnovers) and should be able to outgun Jokic in a game where Denver will be stretched just a bit too thin. 

Prediction: Raptors +6.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

This game has Under written all over it. 

For starters, both teams play at a below-average pace, with Denver ranking 19th and Toronto all the way down in 26th. Matchups like this tend to naturally enable each other, with neither team willing to push the tempo past its normal comfort zone. 

Those tendencies will only be exacerbated tonight, with the Raptors tired from last night's close call and playing their fourth road game in the past week. Denver, likewise, will have to be more methodical in its attack without Gordon's slashing and Barton's spacing, while being incentivized not to promote a firefight in which the Raptors have more guns. 

If the Raptors weren't coming off such a tiring victory, we could see them looking to push the pace more and make Denver's thin roster keep up with their scoring. But it's tough to see them having the legs for it on such a short turnaround. Even if Denver's fourth in the NBA in scoring over the past 15 games, this is a spot to buck the inclination that the high-scoring version of the Nuggets shows up tonight.

Prediction: Under 223.5 (-110)

Best bet

Jokic is one of our favorite targets in the points + rebounds + assists market, and especially with the tear he's been on the past month or so, this feels like a spot where he'll need to assert himself, with so little scoring support around him. 

The offense will have to go through Jokic even more than his normal absurd usage rate, and even in a game that figures to favor a slow pace, he has too much opportunity to do everything with how short-handed Denver could be. 

Joker's averaging a combined 55.6 in this market in five March games, and seems genuinely motivated to put the team on his back like few players in the NBA. Jokic is a genius and knows the Raptors have no answer for him in the post, so look for him to run a clinic out of the pivot, and pile up the numbers. Because if he doesn't, there aren't many other Nuggets who will. 

Pick: Nikola Jokic Over 48.5 points + rebounds + assists (-110)

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