Raptors vs Pacers Picks and Predictions: Siakam Keeps It Spicy in Indy

Try and predict what the Toronto Raptors will do next. I dare you. Honestly, it feels like an exercise in futility at this point in the NBA season.

In one game the Raps look like a team that can compete with any contender in the East. The next, a decision about joining the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes doesn’t look far off. Tonight, they’re slight underdogs as they visit the upstart Indiana Pacers.

So, with a team so difficult to handicap you must look at its most reliable piece... and that is All-NBA forward Pascal Siakam. I’ll do just that when I bring you my best NBA picks and predictions for Raptors vs. Pacers below.

Raptors vs Pacers best odds

Raptors vs Pacers picks and predictions

As I said at the top, the only thing reliable about betting on the Toronto Raptors at this point in the season is the play of Pascal Siakam. The All-NBA forward is doing his best to keep the Raptors afloat. 

Siakam is averaging 26.5 points on 48.4% shooting while adding 8.3 rebounds and 6.7 assists per game. It seems he’s tried to shoulder even more of the scoring load while seemingly the entirety of the rest of his team has struggled.

Spicy P is putting up 28.6 points per game over his last 14 contests and has scored 25 or more in seven consecutive games. He’ll have a great chance to keep that streak alive against the Pacers. 

While the Indiana Pacers have certainly been an upstart team in the Eastern Conference at 20-16 this season, that has been built mostly on offense and Siakam could pose a bit of a matchup problem for them. The Pacers rank 21st in defensive rating and 24th when it comes to points allowed to opposing forwards per game.

Basically, the Pacers run a lot of small-ball lineups to facilitate their offense and outside of Myles Turner, they don’t have much when it comes to defending a player like Siakam. Recently, they’ve seen rangy forwards like Paul George and John Collins have big nights against them. 

Mix in the fact Raptors’ point guard Fred VanVleet is still questionable with a back injury and Pascal could be expected to do even more for the Raptors. Siakam goes for 25+ points for the eighth straight game and cashes the Over on his points total.

My best bet: Pascal Siakam Over 26.5 points (-115 at PointsBet)

Raptors vs Pacers spread analysis

Despite coming into this Eastern Conference matchup losers of eight of their last 11 games, the Raptors opened this game as just a slight 1.5-point road underdog and have actually seen the early money, moving the line to Toronto +1.

I know I sound like a broken record here, but as someone who watches every Raps game... I don’t get it.

Let’s start with the Raptors. Yes, they are coming off a win against the Suns (without Devin Booker), and they are 3-8 in their last 11 games. The offense that can run cold at the best of times has been bad. And the defense that the team has relied on has lacked the effort and performance we're used to.

In fact, the Raptors rank a stunning 27th in defensive rating and next-to-last in opponent field goal percentage over this 11-game stretch. On top of that, they rank 30th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage in those games. Which of course means they're a bad matchup for the sharpshooting Pacers, who have won five of their last six games straight up and against the spread.

With the likes of Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield, and Andrew Nembhard, the Pacers attempt the fifth-most 3-balls per game and rank ninth in 3-point shooting percentage.

As I said, this is a bad matchup for the Raptors. The Pacers shoot the ball well and are a well-coached team. Until the Raptors’ defense starts performing like it did earlier in the season and the team shows any kind of consistency, I would be afraid to back them. I’d lean toward the Pacers here.

Raptors vs Pacers Over/Under analysis

NBA odds set this total at around 229 and early bettors were quick to pounce on the Over, driving the number all the way up to 232.5. And while I don’t love the play as much at the current number, I would still lean toward the Over.

Generally, I tend to think of the Raptors as an Under team. They usually play an aggressive and smart defense and the offense can go cold at the best of times. However, the effort on defense has really lacked lately and now they're going against a good shooting team that's in rhythm. In fact, the Pacers have averaged 119.3 points over the last five games. 

Meanwhile, with Siakam leading the way, the Raptors have seen an uptick in scoring recently, averaging 112.6 over their last five. 

Raptors vs Pacers betting trend to know

The Pacers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing straight-up record. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Pacers.

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