Following a strong surge in January — which has carried into February — a Miami big has remained the NBA Rookie of the Year odds favorite, followed by a number of other recurring names in the top rookie conversation.
Here are the latest NBA odds to win Rookie of the Year — pre-trade deadline edition.
Latest odds to win NBA Rookie of the Year
| Player |  |
|---|---|
 Kel'el Ware |
+145 |
 Stephon Castle |
+325 |
 Jaylen Wells |
+450 |
 Zaccharie Risacher |
+700 |
 Alexandre Sarr |
+1200 |
| Zach Edey |
+1200 |
 Matas Buzelis |
+2500 |
 Dalton Knecht |
+5000 |
 Isaiah Collier |
+5000 |
 Yves Missi |
+7000 |
 Rob Dillingham |
+10000 |
 Tristan da Silva |
+15000 |
| Carlton Carrington |
+15000 |
 Ryan Dunn |
+20000 |
Favorites to win NBA Rookie of the Year
Miami Heat center Kel'el Ware has seen his status as a betting favorite shorten heading into February, as the 15th-overall pick this year was tied for second among rookies in scoring (and fourth in rebounds) in January, including four 20-point games and seven games with 10+ rebounds in his last 11 contests.
Just behind him are some guards in Stephon Castle from the Spurs, who led all rookies in rookie ppg this month, and Memphis' Jaylen Wells, the only other player shorter than 5/1.
The most noticeable drop came from Wizards center Alex Sarr, who had dropped from around 3/1 to as long as 16/1 in the last two weeks.
NBA Rookie of the Year betting splits
BetMGM's latest report is that the most RoY tickets are coming in on the preseason favorite Zach Edey (now as short as 10/1), who leads with 15.7% of the tickets and 24.4% of the total handle bet on the award.
The biggest liability still remains Bronny James, a relic of wild preseason action that isn't a big sweat for sportsbooks — the Lakers' other rookie has long been off the board as he's predominantly a G-League player.
NBA Rookie of the Year predictions
Oddsmakers are telling us that if the season ended today, Ware would win a wide-open NBA Rookie of the Year race over Castle and Wells. Ware's +130 odds convert to a 43.48% implied probability, while Castle's shortest odds convert to an implied probability of 23.81% and Wells is at 18.18%.
Jon Metler's NBA Rookie of the Year prediction: Dalton Knecht
There are several rookies making noise in this market, but I think Dalton Knecht ultimately wins the Rookie of the Year award. Knecht is putting up impressive numbers alongside LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Austin Reaves, whereas his main competitor, Jared McCain, is producing his stats in the absence of several key starters for the Philadelphia 76ers. Similarly, Stephon Castle is putting up numbers without Devin Vassell in the lineup.
I also firmly believe the Lakers will eventually alter their roster with a trade, and Knecht will be the beneficiary of that move, gaining more minutes and higher usage.
Pick made on 11-13
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Understanding NBA Rookie of the Year odds
Most sportsbooks will display odds in the American format as listed above. As the 2023-24 season progressed, with Victor Wembanyama having been a huge favorite, his odds had a minus (-) sign ahead of the number, meaning he's "odds-on", or a favorite against the field:
- Victor Wembanyama -500
This means that a bettor needs to wager $500 to win $100. Other candidates with worse odds would have a plus (+) sign ahead of the number. Early in the season, before any clear favorite is established, betting options will be listed as such:
- Chet Holmgren +650
Here, a bettor stands to profit $650 for every $100 wagered.
If American odds aren't your thing, simply use our odds converter to switch the odds to decimal or fractional format. Most online sportsbooks also give you the option to change the odds format that you see.
NBA ROY betting trends
Here are some trends to keep in mind when betting on NBA Rookie of the Year:
- The No. 1 pick has won Rookie of the Year four times in the past 10 seasons.
- Bigs (PF/C) haven't had much success in ROY recently, with just four wins in the last 20 seasons.
- Only one ROY winner this century (Malcolm Brogdon, 36th, 2016) was drafted outside of the lottery.
- The Rookie of the Year has been drafted in the Top 5 in 16 of the past 20 seasons.
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How is NBA Rookie of the Year decided?
The NBA Rookie of the Year award is bestowed upon the most outstanding first-year player in the league. The selection process is determined by a panel of sportswriters and broadcasters who cover the NBA. These experts evaluate rookies based on their individual performance during the regular season.
Key criteria considered for the award include:
- Performance: The foremost consideration is a player's on-court performance. This encompasses statistics such as points scored, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, and shooting percentages. The impact a rookie has on their team's overall performance can also be a factor.
- Consistency: The ability to maintain a high level of play over the entire season is valued. A rookie who consistently contributes positively is likely to receive strong consideration.
- Role and Minutes Played: The role a rookie plays within their team and the amount of playing time they receive are significant factors. A player with a substantial role and meaningful minutes is more likely to be considered.
- Leadership and Maturity: While not strictly based on age, maturity and leadership qualities are considered. A rookie who displays a level of composure and leadership beyond their years may garner additional attention.
- Adaptability and Improvement: The ability to adapt to the demands of the NBA and show improvement over the course of the season is highly regarded, rather than hitting the dreaded “Rookie Wall”.
It's worth noting that while statistics play a substantial role, intangible qualities like basketball IQ, work ethic, and contributions beyond the box score can also influence the voting process.
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NBA Rookie of the Year history
| Year | NBA ROY Winner | Opening Odds | Pick No. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Victor Wembanyama | -145 | 1 |
| 2022-23 | Paolo Banchero | +200 | 1 |
| 2021-22 | Scottie Barnes | +1,100 | 4 |
| 2020-21 | LaMelo Ball | +400 | 3 |
| 2019-20 | Ja Morant | +250 | 2 |
| 2018-19 | Luka Doncic | +250 | 3 |
| 2017-18 | Ben Simmons | +225 | 1 |
| 2016-17 | Malcolm Brogdon | N/A | 36 |
| 2015-16 | Karl-Anthony Towns | +450 | 1 |
| 2014-15 | Andrew Wiggins | +400 | 1 |
| 2013-14 | Michael Carter-Williams | +1,200 | 11 |
| 2012-13 | Damian Lillard | +500 | 6 |
| 2011-12 | Kyrie Irving | +500 | 1 |
| 2010-11 | Blake Griffin | +200 | 1 |
| 2009-10 | Tyreke Evans | +700 | 4 |
| 2008-09 | Derrick Rose | +350 | 1 |
| 2007-08 | Kevin Durant | -200 | 2 |
| 2006-07 | Brandon Roy | +300 | 6 |
| 2005-06 | Chris Paul | N/A | 4 |
| 2004-05 | Emeka Okafor | N/A | 2 |
NBA Rookie of the Year odds FAQ
Miami Heat center Kel'el Ware is the current favorite to win NBA Rookie of the Year, followed by Alex Sarr, Stephon Castle, and Jaylen Wells.
San Antonio's Victor Wembanyama won the 2024 NBA ROY.
The first overall pick has won ROY 22 times since 1953.
Yes, three times in fact. The award was shared by Elton Brand and Steve Francis (2000), Grant Hill and Jason Kidd (1995) and Dave Cowens and Geoff Petrie (1971).
Miami's Kel'el Ware, at his current +150 odds, is predicted to win with a 40% implied probability.
