A Miami big has remained the NBA Rookie of the Year odds favorite, followed by a number of other recurring names in the top rookie conversation.
Here are the latest NBA odds to win Rookie of the Year.
Latest odds to win NBA Rookie of the Year
| Player |  |
|---|---|
 Kel'el Ware |
+145 |
 Stephon Castle |
+325 |
 Jaylen Wells |
+450 |
 Zaccharie Risacher |
+700 |
 Alexandre Sarr |
+1200 |
| Zach Edey |
+1200 |
 Matas Buzelis |
+2500 |
 Dalton Knecht |
+5000 |
 Isaiah Collier |
+5000 |
 Yves Missi |
+7000 |
 Rob Dillingham |
+10000 |
 Tristan da Silva |
+15000 |
| Carlton Carrington |
+15000 |
 Ryan Dunn |
+20000 |
Favorites to win NBA Rookie of the Year
Miami Heat center Kel'el Ware has seen his status as a betting favorite shorten heading into February, as the 15th-overall pick this year was tied for second among rookies in scoring (and fourth in rebounds) in January, including four 20-point games and seven games with 10+ rebounds in his last 11 contests.
Just behind him are some guards in Stephon Castle from the Spurs, who led all rookies in rookie ppg this month, and Memphis' Jaylen Wells, the only other player shorter than 5/1.
The most noticeable drop came from Wizards center Alex Sarr, who had dropped from around 3/1 to as long as 16/1 in the last two weeks.
NBA Rookie of the Year betting splits
BetMGM's latest report is that the most RoY tickets are coming in on the preseason favorite Zach Edey (now as short as 10/1), who leads with 15.7% of the tickets and 24.4% of the total handle bet on the award.
The biggest liability still remains Bronny James, a relic of wild preseason action that isn't a big sweat for sportsbooks — the Lakers' other rookie has long been off the board as he's predominantly a G-League player and is averaging just 1.4 points in 4.2 minutes per game.
NBA Rookie of the Year predictions
Oddsmakers are telling us that if the season ended today, Ware would win a wide-open NBA Rookie of the Year race over Castle and Wells. Ware's +145 odds convert to a 40.8% implied probability, while Castle's odds convert to an implied probability of 23.5% and Wells is at 18.2%.
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NBA ROY betting trends
Here are some trends to keep in mind when betting on NBA Rookie of the Year:
- The No. 1 pick has won Rookie of the Year four times in the past 10 seasons.
- Bigs (PF/C) haven't had much success in ROY recently, with just four wins in the last 20 seasons.
- Only one ROY winner this century (Malcolm Brogdon, 36th, 2016) was drafted outside of the lottery.
- The Rookie of the Year has been drafted in the Top 5 in 16 of the past 20 seasons.
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NBA Rookie of the Year history
| Year | NBA ROY Winner | Opening Odds | Pick No. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Victor Wembanyama | -145 | 1 |
| 2022-23 | Paolo Banchero | +200 | 1 |
| 2021-22 | Scottie Barnes | +1,100 | 4 |
| 2020-21 | LaMelo Ball | +400 | 3 |
| 2019-20 | Ja Morant | +250 | 2 |
| 2018-19 | Luka Doncic | +250 | 3 |
| 2017-18 | Ben Simmons | +225 | 1 |
| 2016-17 | Malcolm Brogdon | N/A | 36 |
| 2015-16 | Karl-Anthony Towns | +450 | 1 |
| 2014-15 | Andrew Wiggins | +400 | 1 |
| 2013-14 | Michael Carter-Williams | +1,200 | 11 |
| 2012-13 | Damian Lillard | +500 | 6 |
| 2011-12 | Kyrie Irving | +500 | 1 |
| 2010-11 | Blake Griffin | +200 | 1 |
| 2009-10 | Tyreke Evans | +700 | 4 |
| 2008-09 | Derrick Rose | +350 | 1 |
| 2007-08 | Kevin Durant | -200 | 2 |
| 2006-07 | Brandon Roy | +300 | 6 |
| 2005-06 | Chris Paul | N/A | 4 |
| 2004-05 | Emeka Okafor | N/A | 2 |
NBA Rookie of the Year odds FAQ
Miami Heat center Kel'el Ware is the current favorite to win NBA Rookie of the Year, followed by Stephon Castle, and Jaylen Wells.
San Antonio's Victor Wembanyama won the 2024 NBA ROY.
The first overall pick has won ROY 22 times since 1953.
Yes, three times in fact. The award was shared by Elton Brand and Steve Francis (2000), Grant Hill and Jason Kidd (1995) and Dave Cowens and Geoff Petrie (1971).
Miami's Kel'el Ware, at his current +150 odds, is predicted to win with a 40% implied probability.
