Spurs vs Kings Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Sacramento Vulnerable Against Wemby-Less Spurs

Few teams are harder to get a feel for than the Sacramento Kings. They don’t just play down to the competition (though they do that plenty), they also play well above it.

They got blown out by the Detroit Pistons last month but routed the Lakers 130-120 just last night. De’Aaron Fox rebounded from a poor clutch performance the previous game to turn in a career-high tying 44 points and utterly crush the Lakers in the second half.

The 13-49 San Antonio Spurs make for an entirely different kind of test, even more so considering they'll be without Victor Wembanyama.

Can Sacramento get serious and take care of business against an outmatched and outgunned opponent? Or will the Spurs demonstrate yet again why it’s been so hard to trust the Kings this season even when strong NBA odds favorites?

My NBA picks and predictions for Spurs vs. Kings take a hard look at what San Antonio looks like with Victor out of the lineup.

Spurs vs Kings odds

Spurs vs Kings predictions

The unfortunate news for today's San Antonio Spurs-Sacramento Kings matchup is that Victor Wembanyama is out. Wemby suffered an ankle sprain on Wednesday and will miss an unspecified amount of time, which completely shifts the tenor of this game.

The Kings have played the Spurs twice already this season, with Sacramento taking both contests. Neither was a blowout, with the final result in doubt entering the fourth quarter of both contests, the Kings won the first game by nine and the second on February 22 by just five.

However. they were close contests largely because of Wembanyama’s brilliance. He came just one assist shy of a 5x5 during the most recent game and is the focal point of everything San Antonio does on both sides of the ball,

What is this team’s identity without Victor?

Unsurprisingly to anyone who has been following San Antonio, the Spurs' best three lineups in terms of point differential all feature Victor playing center, which make up about 1,000 combined possessions. With him off the court entirely, the Spurs have yet to find a single high-volume lineup that plays well consistently.

In 2,660 non-Wemby possessions, the Spurs are a staggering -11.3, and no single lineup group has played more than 140 possessions. Popovich is searching with these groups, panning the stream for anything halfway playable, with little to show for it so far.

Their defensive rating is 127 in those minutes, while their offensive rating is 115.7. That is rough stuff.

But although we're treated to Wemby highlight dunks and step-back threes on a nightly basis, the Spurs won’t miss him nearly as much on offense. Wemby is already one of the best defenders in the NBA, capable of turning the tire fire that is San Antonio’s defense into a respectable outfit by himself.

He doesn’t make that kind of imprint on offense (at least not yet). The Spurs' offensive rating with Victor on the court is 110.3, significantly below the 115.7 off-court mark. That’s not good, but it does suggest that due to a combination of factors (more opportunity, more focus on guard play, better shot quality), the Spurs consistently score better without Victor.

Naturally, some of that is because Victor plays heavy minutes against starters as well, but because he was on a minutes restriction much of the year, those lineups have been stress-tested a lot against starting units as well. In the six games they’ve played without Victor, they’re averaging 118 points.

The Kings' defense has fallen into the Bottom-10 range after treading water earlier in the season, they’re on a back-to-back, and they frequently lack defensive focus when playing sub-.500 teams.

While I don’t feel confident in either the Spurs' defense or Sacramento’s consistency, the Spurs' non-Wemby offense has proven better than this line suggests.

My best bet: Spurs team total Over 111.5 (-120 at DraftKings)

Spurs vs Kings same-game parlay

Spurs team total Over 111.5

Domantas Sabonis Over 14.5 rebounds

Damantas Sabonis Over 20.5 points

+266 at DraftKings

If there’s one player who stands to benefit most from Wemby’s absence, it’s Domantas Sabonis. Sabonis is the NBA’s leading rebounder and an incredibly physical player, but even he struggled with Victor’s length and size at times when they played on February 22.

Wemby is by far the best defensive rebounder on the Spurs, not only in terms of his gaudy numbers but also in the impact stats. Per Cleaning the Glass, opponents grab 3.1% fewer of their own misses when he’s on the court, an elite mark. 

Sabonis tears through all but a select few opposing centers inside the arc and he outmuscled Anthony Davis again just last night. None of the Spurs' backup options at big including the likes of Zach Collins or Dominick Barlow should provide much resistance. The Spurs are also one of the least efficient offenses in the Association and they’re on the road, so there should be plenty of missed shots for Domas to corral.

Sabonis is also nothing if not consistent. He’s in the middle of a 44-game-long double-double streak and is averaging 19.7 points and 14.8 rebounds over his last 10 games.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Spurs vs Kings spread and Over/Under analysis

This is a game that Sacramento should absolutely handle. Bettors seem to agree, as the spread opened at -8.5 and has grown to -11 despite the Kings being on the wrong side of a back-to-back.

But should isn’t in the Kings' vocabulary this season. They are just 11-16 against the spread at home this year, which is the third-worst mark among teams with a winning record this season.

They all too often begin games unfocused and undisciplined, relying on offensive bursts to get them ahead in games they should never have trailed. Sacramento is also just 7-10 ATS with a rest disadvantage this year.

The Spurs are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 despite going 3-7 straight up. It’s difficult to put any faith in those trends with Wemby out, however, as their defensive ecosystem entirely relies on him.

Thursday’s total has seen some interesting movement. It came in at 236.5, rose as high as 238.5, and has since been bet down as low as 235.5 at some sportsbooks.

Fatigue will be a major factor for the Kings in this one. They played last night, and while they ended up dominating the Lakers, it was a physical game all the way through. 

The Over is 18-8-1 in Kings home games, for a rate of 69.2%. That’s the highest rate of Overs for any home team in the NBA. They shoot better at home, but the same boost doesn’t apply to their defense.

The Under is 19-13-2 when the Spurs are the road team this season, but that screams of Wemby’s influence on both ends. I would lean slightly Over now that this total has come back down to earth.

Spurs vs Kings betting trend to know

The Over is 18-8-1 in Kings home games this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Kings.

Spurs vs Kings game info

Spurs vs Kings latest injuries

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