Suns vs Mavericks Game 6 Picks and Predictions: Suns Set on Dallas

After two underwhelming performances in Texas, the Phoenix Suns beat up on the Dallas Mavericks in Game 5 with the series back in the desert. The Suns came away with a 110-80 win and can now close the series out to advance to the Western Conference Finals tonight. 

Will Phoenix put this series in the past and earn some extra rest before facing the winner of the Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors? Continue reading our Suns vs. Mavericks Game 6 NBA picks and predictions for May 12 to find out.  

Suns vs Mavericks odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Suns opened as 2-point road favorites in this massive Game 6, and they’re still mostly favored by 2. However, you can find Phoenix as a favorite of either 1.5 or 2.5, so make sure you’re looking everywhere. 

The total, meanwhile, is way down since opening up at 214 in this game. There is one book offering it for as low as 211, while most others have it as 212 or 212.5. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Suns vs Mavericks predictions

• Prediction: Suns -1.5 (-115)
• Prediction: Under 212.5 (-108)
• Best bet: Suns -1.5 (-115)

Predictions made on 5/12/2022 at 1:05 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Suns vs Mavericks game info

• Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
• Date: Thursday, May 12, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Suns vs Mavericks series odds

Suns: -800
Mavericks: +550

Suns vs Mavericks betting preview

Key injuries

Suns: Dario Saric F (Out).
Mavericks: Tim Hardaway Jr. (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Suns are 20-8 against the spread in their last 28 postseason games as favorites. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Mavericks.

Suns vs Mavericks picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

The Suns went into Game 5 with a lot of question marks after having failed to play competitive basketball in Dallas. Monty Williams’ team responded by playing one of its most complete games of the entire year, and the group’s focus on the defensive end played a huge part in that.

Mikal Bridges, who has had some trouble checking Luka Doncic in this series, did a much better job of sticking with him on screens, and that’s something he’ll look to replicate in Game 6. The Suns were also a lot better about staying glued to some of the Mavericks’ better shooters, which was something that haunted them in the two games in Dallas. 

The Mavs will undoubtedly shoot better than 8-for-32 from the outside in Game 6, as the team’s role players have been lighting it up from behind the 3-point line in front of their own fans. However, considering how dominant Phoenix looked in Game 5, a few extra triples isn’t going to be the difference in this one. 

The Suns went back to playing a little bully ball with Deandre Ayton in the paint last game — something the Mavericks just aren’t equipped to handle. Chris Paul also only had seven points on eight shots last game, and we know he’s capable of lighting it up if called upon. If this game is close in the fourth quarter, the Point God will be aggressive In hunting his own shot. He has been absurd in close-out games since being traded to Phoenix. 

It’s also worth noting that the Suns have closed out all of their series on the road since the start of the last postseason, so they are no strangers to going out and ending their opponents’ seasons in their own buildings.

In fact, this uber-competitive Phoenix group likes to silence opposing crowds, and it’s hard to see the Suns not winning a single game in Dallas. They are 34-12 straight-up and 27-18-1 against the spread in road games this year. 

Prediction: Suns -1.5 (-115 at BetMGM) 

Over/Under analysis

The Under is 8-3 in Phoenix’s last 11 games against teams with winning records, and it’s also 16-5-2 in its last 23 road games against opponents with home winning percentages of 60% or greater. On top of that, the Under is 25-5-1 in Dallas’ last 31 home games against teams with winning road records, and is 21-5 in the team’s last 26 games as a home underdog. With that in mind, both teams have an overwhelming amount of history of playing low-scoring games in these situations. 

The Under also happens to have hit in each of the last three games in this series, and it’s only turning into more of a defensive battle as these teams start to learn each other’s tendencies. They’re are also starting to really dislike one another at this point, so the games are getting more physical. 

Prediction: Under 212.5 (-108 at WynnBET) 

Best bet

As previously mentioned, the Suns are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 as favorites in the postseason, and they’re 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 Conference Semifinals games. Phoenix is also 16-6 ATS in games with lines between +3 and -3 this season. This Suns team knows how to win games that are expected to be close, and it helps having one of the best backcourts in basketball late in games. Phoenix knows that if this thing is close, Paul and Devin Booker can be counted on to make big plays. 

The Suns were also able to get Bridges and Cam Johnson going at the same time last game, and this team is at its best when the two wings are making plays all over the floor. Not many teams in the league have players that good as their fourth and fifth options. 

Overall, it looks like the Suns have finally figured out how to get the job done against this Mavericks team, and they’ll show up and find a way to match Dallas’ energy here. 

Pick: Suns -1.5 (-115 at BetMGM) 

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