In Game 5, the Phoenix Suns finally showed up and looked like the team that won 64 games during the regular season, earning a 15-point win to take a 3-2 lead over the New Orleans Pelicans in this first-round series. Now, the Suns will look to close things out with a road win in Game 6, but the Pelicans aren’t going to make it easy.
Will Phoenix find a way to avoid a Game 7 against a feisty New Orleans squad? Check out our Suns vs. Pelicans NBA picks and predictions for Thursday, April 28 to find out.
Suns vs Pelicans odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Suns opened as 2-point favorites in this game, and there are some sites at 2.5 now. However, you can still find it at -2 for -108 odds. The total, which opened at 214.5, is now all the way down to 213.5 on two of the bigger sportsbooks. The highest you’ll find it now is at 214.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Suns vs Pelicans predictions
Predictions made on 4/28/2022 at 11:10 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Suns vs Pelicans game info
• Location: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA
• Date: Thursday, April 28, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Suns vs Pelicans series odds
Suns: -800
Pelicans: +550
Suns vs Pelicans betting preview
Key injuries
Suns: Devin Booker G (Doubtful), Dario Saric F (Out).
Pelicans: Kira Lewis G (Out), Zion Williamson F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Suns are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 road games against teams with losing home records. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Pelicans.
Suns vs Pelicans picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Suns marked Booker as “out” on yesterday’s injury report, but there is a lot of noise about the superstar returning and playing some minutes off the bench in this Game 6 meeting with the Pelicans — and he was seen yelling “I’m back” at the bench after Game 5.
With that said, there’s a little extra value in taking Phoenix in this one, as this is a winnable game for the top seed even without him, and it’s possible you’ll be getting a great price. If Booker plays, even if it’s just for 15 to 20 minutes, it’d be hard to envision a scenario in which the Suns don’t end the series tonight,.
With or without Booker, Phoenix seemingly found itself in Game 5, as the Suns finally knocked down some big shots. After going 11-for-53 from three in Games 3 and 4, the Suns were 10 for 27 from deep in Game 5. There’s still room for improvement there, but it was big that Phoenix was able to get in a bit of a rhythm.
The Suns are still getting great looks whenever they want in this series, and you have to think that they’ll continue to make more and more as the law of averages plays out. Cam Johnson and Jae Crowder were a combined 2-for-10 from three last game — that won’t continue forever.
Phoenix also threw Mikal Bridges on Brandon Ingram a little more than in previous games, and that matchup was working for the Suns. Bridges had already proven that he is capable of slowing down CJ McCollum, but it’s Ingram that has been the driving force behind the Pelicans’ strong play in this series.
With Bridges — who finished second in the league in Defensive Player of the Year voting — guarding Ingram, the lanky New Orleans forward will be forced into tougher shots. That was a big difference maker in Game 5, and the Suns will be counting on their defensive-minded wing to come through with another big performance here.
As for McCollum, Phoenix was able to get away with Landry Shamet and Chris Paul handling that assignment last game. Shamet was really competing hard on that end of the floor last game, and it could earn him some more minutes tonight if Booker can’t play. And if the former Wichita State guard can finally start making some threes, that would be a huge bonus for the Suns. Shamet has gotten some of the cleanest looks in this series, but he hasn’t been able to bury them.
Offensively, Paul is going to continue to do his thing in this series. He has tortured rookie Herb Jones in their head-to-head matchup, and he could be even better if Cam Payne stays on the court. Payne fouled out in only 12 minutes of action last game, but he had 12 points in that time. Phoenix needs the backup point guard to bring it in Game 6, as it takes pressure off of Paul, who has been gassed at times throughout this series.
Prediction: Suns -2 (-108 at WynnBet)
Over/Under analysis
The Suns and Pels finally went Under the total when they combined to score only 209 points in Game 5, and it isn’t hard to see them playing another somewhat low-scoring game here. These teams have a better understanding of how to slow one another down, with this being their sixth game against each other in two weeks. This series’ 94.90 pace of play would have been the slowest number in the regular season for any team, by far.
The Under is also 10-4-1 in Phoenix’s last 15 games in the first round of the playoffs, so this is just how the Suns play in the postseason. They’ll once again be looking to slow things down and rely on their defense, and the Pelicans aren’t exactly going to try to speed them up here. With Willie Green having worked for the Suns last year, these teams play very similar, and thus know how to stop one another in many spots.
Prediction: Under 214 (-105 at TwinSpires)
Best bet
The Suns just proved that they can easily beat this Pelicans team even if they play at 75% of their capability, and that’s without Booker on the floor. Phoenix was outworked in a Game 4 loss in New Orleans, but came out and matched the energy of its opponent last game. Now, the Suns should show that same level of energy to close out the Pelicans and put this tough series behind them.
When you throw in the fact that Booker might try to play in this one, it’s just hard to lay off of Phoenix with such a small spread in this game. This group gained some serious experience in last year’s postseason, so these players know what it takes to end a series — and the Suns actually closed out all three of their series victories on the road in that run. Look for Phoenix to set the tone early here, and don’t be surprised if this is the team’s best shooting performance yet.
Pick: Suns -2 (-108 at WynnBet)
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