Kevin Durant and the Phoenix Suns will be traveling to Houston on Friday to take on Alperen Sengun and the Houston Rockets on the tail end of a back-to-back, and we have searched through the NBA odds to find you the best bet for this matchup.
Durant vs. Sengun doesn't really bring the same excitement as Luka Doncic vs. Devin Booker did last night, but the money won in a Suns-Mavericks game is worth just as much as the money won in a Suns-Rockets game.
While Doncic vs. Booker was highly entertaining on Thursday, I did notice something with the Suns from their game against the Mavericks that I think we can use on Friday against the Rockets.
Find out what it is in my free NBA picks for Suns vs. Rockets on Friday, February 23.
Suns vs Rockets odds
Suns vs Rockets predictions
Both the Houston Rockets and the Phoenix Suns are coming off losses on Thursday and are on the second half of a back-to-back. This usually means we can get some complicated injury reports, but the Rockets look good to go.
The Suns, on the other hand, have listed Bradley Beal as doubtful. While Kevin Durant isn't listed on the injury report, he did get rolled up on near the end of the Mavericks game. For what it's worth, he was able to continue playing after the incident last night.
I'm approaching this game as if Beal isn't playing and his minutes are up for grabs. To me, it just makes sense to sit him out on Friday and give him an extended break if he wasn't ready to play on Thursday against the Mavericks, which was a much more pivotal game for playoff seeding.
At the NBA trade deadline, the Suns acquired Royce O'Neale, which was an awesome move as he brings a defensive presence. The one thing I noticed against the Mavericks, though, is that O'Neale was the one taking a lot of the open 3-pointers off of passes from Devin Booker and Durant. O'Neale can shoot it, but you don't want O'Neale taking eight 3-pointers and Grayson Allen only taking two when Allen leads the NBA in 3-point FG%.
If I'm the Suns coaching staff, I'm making a concerted effort to get Allen more shots from beyond the arc on Friday. Allen doesn't only lead the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage, but he is 3.1% higher than second place. Allen has to be the one taking the majority of your catch and shoot 3-pointers in the flow of your offense.
When the Suns played the Rockets on December 27, Allen was also able to penetrate the lane, finish at the rim, and get to the free-throw line on his way to a very efficient 16 points. As someone who is more of a 3-point shooter, it's a big boost to his points prop when you have a matchup where you think he will also be able to score in ways other than from beyond the arc.
If you placed an Over bet on Allen's points prop on Thursday against the Mavericks, I believe you made a nice wager that you weren't rewarded for as Allen barely went Under the total. The issues that plagued Allen on Thursday against the Mavericks, I think, will be corrected by Frank Vogel and his coaching staff on Friday.
Allen is projected to score 12.8 points on Friday against the Rockets, which means we can price the Over 12.5 points at +104, but it is available at Pinnacle for +123. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 9%.
My best bet: Grayson Allen Over 12.5 points (+123 at Pinnacle)
Suns vs Rockets same-game parlay
Grayson Allen Over 12.5 points
Grayson Allen 3+ made 3s
Amen Thompson Over 9.5 points
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We can't make our SGP for Allen's points prop at Pinnacle, so we are going to take our action to bet365.
I'm going to pair Allen to make 3+ threes with the Over on his points prop because I think the Suns coaching staff will make a concerted effort to get Allen more looks from beyond the arc tonight. Pairing Allen's points prop with his 3s made won't multiply the odds all that much, but that is expected as these two bets are very correlated, specifically for a player like Allen.
I'm adding Amen Thompson to go Over his points prop for the third leg of the SGP. This bet doesn't relate to the Over we are playing on Allen, but I just think as the season progresses we will see the Rockets give Thompson more run as they fall further out of playoff contention.
Thompson is coming off a 22-point performance on Thursday against the Pelicans, and with Jusuf Nurkic doubtful for the Suns, the athletic Thompson should be able to finish around the rim.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Suns vs Rockets spread and Over/Under analysis
The Suns opened as a 3.5-point favorite at FanDuel and are now trading as a 4-point favorite. While the line has moved half a point in the Suns' favor, we did initially see this line move towards the Rockets to trade the Suns at -2. That number didn't last long as the Suns were almost immediately bet back up to -3.5.
If you're looking to bet on a side in this game, make sure to shop around because we are seeing several Suns -3.5 and Suns -4 in the market with varying juice.
The total opened at DraftKings at 228.5, and we have seen the line soar towards the Over as it is now trading at 233.5.
Not only has the total moved five points towards the Over, but we haven't really seen any resistance at DraftKings to this move. The total keeps climbing with no momentum back towards the Under, so I wouldn't be shocked if we see this total close at a number higher than 233.5.
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Suns vs Rockets betting trend to know
The Suns have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 58 of their last 85 games (+28.60 Units / 30% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Rockets.
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Suns vs Rockets game info
| Location: | Toyota Center, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Friday, February 23, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Space City Home Network, Arizona's Family Sports |
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