The Portland Trail Blazers have had the Phoenix Suns’ number on two occasions this season, but with Phoenix returning to full health the NBA odds are pegging it a heavy favorite.
The Suns blew out the Trail Blazers earlier in the month by 31 points, and they’ll be hunting another commanding win over a depleted Portland team that has struggled this season even with its full squad. Will the Blazers have anything to say here, or can we expect more of the same from Phoenix?
Let's get right into it with my free NBA picks for the Suns vs. Blazers on January 14.
Suns vs Trail Blazers odds
Suns vs Trail Blazers predictions
Generally speaking, the Portland Trail Blazers have been hard to trust this season as a bettor. They’re just 16-22 against the spread, and as home underdogs, they’re an even worse 5-7 ATS.
Portland is already overmatched against a Phoenix Suns team that is finally healthy, and now it has to face the reality it may be down two crucial bigs here considering Robert Williams has already been lost to a knee injury, and Deandre Ayton is now questionable for this one with knee pain.
The Trail Blazers are ranked just 25th in rebounding this season, and Phoenix finds itself inside the league’s Top 5 with former Portland center Jusuf Nurkic stepping in and doing an excellent job after the departure of the aforementioned Ayton.
This was already a tough matchup for Portland as a team that loves to shoot outside — given the Suns’ excellence in defending the perimeter — and it has also been poor against the mid-range jumper which is what Phoenix will rely on for points here.
This is a massive mismatch any way you slice it, and if Ayton does wind up missing this one, it’ll tip the scales even further towards Phoneix given it has not needed an edge down low to pick up some quality wins over the last couple of weeks.
My best bet: Suns -10.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
Suns vs Trail Blazers same-game parlay
As you might have guessed, I’m all over the Suns in this same-game parlay. I like them to run it up against a weak Western Conference opponent, and I think two of their top players will show out.
I’ll start with Kevin Durant, who has a dream matchup against a Trail Blazers team that has been one of the worst in the league at defending the mid-range jumper. This is Durant’s specialty, so it’s no surprise he’s managed to score 30 or more both times he’s faced Portland — totaling 71 points in all. This is an alt line, but one that should still be attainable for a guy who’s posted 30 points in two of his last four games.
Then, I’ll back Nurkic to have another solid game against his former team. Sure, he did manage just seven boards last time out against Portland, but in his previous two meetings, he went for a combined 25 boards — hitting this over on both occasions.
There’s a large rebounding discrepancy between these two, and Portland’s offense should sputter against a solid perimeter defense, so I suspect there will be plenty of rebounding opportunities. On top of that, you have the bonus Ayton may miss this game.
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Suns vs Trail Blazers spread and Over/Under analysis
The Suns opened up as 11-point favorites for this Western Conference tilt and the line has since dropped half a point to 10.5. As for the total, it opened at 231.5 and has since been bet up to as high as 234 depending on your book.
The Trail Blazers have ranked just 19th in pace this year, which is a deadly combination for Over bettors in chorus with their atrocious 106.8 offensive rating.
On top of that, Portland has been at its best when it’s been able to find open looks from outside, and this Suns' defense has allowed very few this season. When you then factor in that Phoenix ranks 27th in pace, I think the picture becomes even clearer.
I like the Under here if you’re to take a side on the total, and it seems that the public does too given 49% of the tickets here at DraftKings are headed that way. With that said, a whopping 83% of the cash wagered has come in on the Over, so this could be a spot where it’s best to stay away.
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Suns vs Trail Blazers betting trend to know
The Trail Blazers have hit the first quarter game total Under in 21 of their last 28 games (+13.40 Units / 43% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Trail Blazers.
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Suns vs Trail Blazers game info
Location: | Moda Center, Portland, OR |
Date: | Sunday, January 14, 2024 |
Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
TV: | AZ Family, Root Sports |
Suns vs Trail Blazers latest injuries
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