Thunder vs Pelicans Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: New Orleans Offense Comes Up Short vs OKC

The Oklahoma City Thunder head to the Big Easy to take on the New Orleans Pelicans this Friday night in an intriguing matchup between two of the top teams in the Western Conference. 

The Thunder are winners of four in a row, coming off a blowout victory over the San Antonio Spurs in the much-anticipated matchup between rookie phenoms Chet Holmgren and Victor Wembanyama. They’ll be NBA odds underdogs against the Pelicans tonight, however, and will have to play a complete game to keep their streak alive.

New Orleans is fresh off a dominant win against the Utah Jazz, riding the newly reemphasized playmaking of Zion Williamson. They’re one of the few teams in the West with as deep a roster as the Thunder, which should make for an interesting chess match.

My NBA picks and predictions for Thunder vs. Pelicans believe that when you dig into the numbers, it’s actually Oklahoma City that should be favored in this Friday, January 26 showdown.

Thunder vs Pelicans odds

Thunder vs Pelicans predictions

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is an All-Star starter, Chet Holmgren is the leader in the NBA Rookie of the Year odds, Jalen Williams is a legit two-way star wing, and the Oklahoma City Thunder are second in the West with a real shot of claiming the best record by season’s end. For a team that had some big expectations coming into the season, you couldn’t have scripted it much better.

And the more the Thunder win, the higher the expectations should be rising. Coming into the season, making the playoffs would have been a nice accomplishment. But at this point, anything less than a trip to the Western Conference Finals might seem like a disappointment. 

The New Orleans Pelicans are a much harder team to get a handle on. They’ve clearly turned a corner on offense recently, empowering their star tandem of Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram to work as playmakers rather than pure scorers, but their defense has fallen off a cliff.

The Pelicans have a scorching 125.3 offensive rating over their last six games, but those defensive lapses have them at a modest +2.2 point differential per Cleaning the Glass. That offensive rating also becomes quite a bit less impressive when you examine the schedule in detail.

That six-game stretch featured games against the 22nd,15th, 28th, 20th, and 12th-ranked defenses. There was only a single game against an above average defense in that stretch, against the Denver Nuggets, and they scored an underwhelming 113 points in a double-digit loss.

The Thunder have a +5.5 point differential in that same span, with wins over defensive powerhouses including the Minnesota Timberwolves (first overall) and the Orlando Magic (fifth). Their offense is battle-tested recently in a way the Pels’ just isn’t.

Then there’s the other side of the ball, where it’s just not comparable. The Thunder defense is stifling, with Holmgren covering spacing and swatting shots, SGA creating fast breaks out of steals every game, and Jalen and Lu Dort making life hell on the opponent's primary offensive creators. 

OKC is the fourth-best defense in the NBA, and while the Pels are a respectable ninth, their ranking depends a lot on opponents shooting luck. Their slippage of late to a Bottom-10 ranking is perhaps the bill coming due on an unsustainable defensive strategy.

The Pelicans could absolutely win this game, but the statistical resume that the Thunder have put together plus their ability to play so many different styles should make them the road favorite. That they’re available to win at plus money value makes this my best bet on Friday’s board.

My best bet: Thunder moneyline (+122 at FanDuel)

Thunder vs Pelicans same-game parlay

Thunder moneyline

Zion Williamson 5+ assists

Jonas Valanciunas 8+ rebounds

50% boost available

+390 +585 at DraftKings

The Pels season began to turn a corner when they moved CJ McCollum more off the ball and had Zion and Ingram work more as playmakers rather than strictly play finishers. It’s led to better balance in the Pels offense and has also allowed CJ to focus on what he does best, leading to one of the most efficient seasons of his career. 

It’s also seen Zion’s passing productivity take a noticeable leap. Zion is at career highs in assist percentage, assist to usage rate, as well as raw assists per game at 4.8. He’s averaging 5.4 assists over his last 10 and has had five or more seven times in that span.

Because I’m already getting plus money value on the Thunder moneyline, I’m taking the more conservative alt total on Jonas Valanciunas’ rebounds here to add value on the final leg of my same-game parlay. The Thunder are a brutal rebounding team and Jonas is one of the true dominating forces on the glass, it’s just that he just doesn’t top 30 minutes a game too often anymore. 

He’s still averaging 9.3 boards over his last 10 games, and I expect the Pels to go Jonas against Chet a fair amount to try and wear him out. When is on the court, he’ll be at a massive size advantage. Jonas has 50-60 pounds on Holmgren and he’s a master of boxing out and positioning on the glass.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Thunder vs Pelicans spread and Over/Under analysis

New Orleans opened as high as 3.5-point favorites for Friday against the Thunder, but that’s since fallen to -1.5 to -2 at most sportsbooks.

The Thunder have been the best team against the spread this season, and that’s only improved over the past two weeks. Per Cleaning the Glass, they’re outperforming the spread by an average of 6.2 points per game in that span.

The Thunder have options at both ends, superstar scoring, big wing defenders, elite rim protection, and top-notch coaching. They’re treating every game against other West contenders as a measuring stick of their progress, which is why I have zero concern that they’ll turn up for this one against the Pels. 

They’re the second-youngest team in the association, but you’d never know it by the way they play. They consistently play clutch basketball and don’t get rattled in road environments. They’re 7-3-1 ATS as road dogs this season.

Friday’s total opened at 239.5 and has risen slightly as public money has come in on the Over. At time of writing most books are offering it between 240.5 and 241.5.

New Orleans’ defense has fallen off in this recent stretch, and they’ve been getting through games on the backs of their offense. A more balanced approach might be needed to hang with the Thunder, and they have the size on the perimeter to at least make SGA and Jalen Williams work for their buckets.

The Thunder’s defense continues to be impressive, particularly given their pronounced weakness on the boards. They make up for the loss of extra possessions by never turning it over and shooting an absurdly high percentage in their first shot half-court offense. 

The Over has cashed in a ton of both these team’s games recently, but without being able to see the Pels go against a great defense in a few weeks I’m not sure how good they really are. The last time they played against a Top-10 defense was way back on January 5 against the Los Angeles Clippers, and they failed to score 100 points. 

I’d slightly lean toward the Under at this number.

Thunder vs Pelicans betting trend to know

The Thunder are 7-3-1 ATS as road underdogs this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Pelicans.

Thunder vs Pelicans game info

Thunder vs Pelicans latest injuries

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