Timberwolves vs Clippers Picks and Predictions: Minnesota Spreads Itself Thin

Two teams that had sights set near the top of the Western Conference standings and still have work to do to get there collide when the Los Angeles Clippers host the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday, December 14. 

Minny, loser of two straight to Portland, continues to try and find its way with Karl-Anthony Towns injured, while L.A. is fresh off an ass-whipping of the NBA's best team.

See who holds the best value for tonight's matchup as our NBA picks and predictions break down Timberwolves vs. Clippers.

Timberwolves vs Clippers best odds

Timberwolves vs Clippers picks and predictions

The last time we saw the Clippers take the court, they ransacked what rates close to the best offense in NBA history, holding the Celtics to just 93 points. While Boston was road-weary near the end of a long road trip, the Wolves are in a similar schedule spot — this will be their fourth game in a row on the road, and the matchup certainly doesn't favor them. 

With Towns already down, starting point guard D'Angelo Russell is also questionable for tonight, possibly stretching Minnesota's already-below-average offense even thinner, with more onus on Jaylen Nowell. The Clippers can also take their pick of which apex defender to stick on Anthony Edwards, who will find himself heavily game-planned for.

See, the Clippers aren't phased by whatever gravity Rudy Gobert creates as a lob threat in the pick-and-roll. They literally wrote the book on the switch-heavy small-ball sets that played Gobert off the court in Utah's postseasons, and are equipped to either run the same sets or continue to give Ivica Zubac more minutes. 

If the Clippers succeed in neutering Gobert (something he's been just as apt to do himself certain nights lately), they'll have a huge edge in this game, with a legion of plus perimeter defenders to check Edwards and Nowell, regardless of the lineup dynamics. Even if Russell plays, he's arguably one of the NBA's more overrated players and has been a less efficient playmaker this season, even alongside an elite p-n-r threat. 

Kawhi Leonard is starting to do Kawhi things again (season-high 25 points on 10-12 shooting Monday night), and that drastically raises L.A.'s ceiling. Remember, its absolute floor is as a fringe playoff team, and even that type of roster could beat a dysfunctional, banged-up, travel-tired T-Wolves team by a few possessions. If the Clips are anywhere near the form that suffocated Boston's attack and flustered it into a 20-point loss, this is going to be a rough night for the underdogs.

We can find the Clips spread at even money as of Wednesday morning, so shop around and fire away. 

My best bet: Clippers -6.5 (+100 at Betway)

Timberwolves vs Clippers spread analysis

Minnesota's naturally been one of the league's worst bets against the spread this season, sitting 28th at 10-17 after roundly insulting preseason expectations. Towns' injury certainly hasn't helped, but even at full strength, this team was rife with spacing issues and nowhere near the juggernaut on defense that Gobert's addition was supposed to unleash.

Instead, the Wolves have been below-average on both sides of the ball, and even worse against top competition, sitting just 2-7 ATS as an underdog (dead last in the NBA). 

While the Clippers profile as an average ATS squad, they inspire way more confidence than the Wolves, especially when we consider Kawhi's improving form, and the possibility that the market hasn't adjusted yet. 

Last we saw Leonard healthy, he was one of the NBA's five or so best players, full-stop. While it's not certain that's back in that shape, he showed the strongest glimpses we've seen in a while two nights ago against a team that's far more capable of resistance than anything Minnesota's going to throw at him.

That's why this is gambling: it's an undetermined outcome. But my view is that this Clippers team is about to announce itself, if a drubbing of the NBA's best team didn't accomplish that already. 

Timberwolves vs Clippers Over/Under analysis

This total's priced competitively at 224-ish, tucked right in between the 223.1 ppg these teams combine to average and the 224.8 they allow. And the snug total has factors on either side tugging at my attention. 

Chief among them is Minnesota's attack, and just how much Edwards can do by himself if Russell is out and Gobert succumbs to the matchup. The Clippers are an elite defensive team that matches up pretty damn perfectly without Towns to bully their swing forwards, and could severely hamper Minny's ability to push the Over.

Likewise, the Clippers just kind of suck on offense (rated 28th), and are more likely to control tempo, meaning their Bottom-10 pace is a more realistic projection than Minnesota's second-ranked sprint. Count on the Wolves working deeper into the clock than they're comfortable with.

But, conversely, Leonard's continued reemergence would mean added scoring punch for the Clippers and less ability for defenses to key in on Paul George. If the Clippers are scoring with more ease, it could open up this game's pace, and while it's not a favorable matchup for Edwards or Gobert, they're capable of keeping a team afloat.

And for what trends are worth, since the Clippers acquired Kawhi and PG, this matchup is 9-1 O/U against this total with an average of 229.3 points.

I have a slight lean to the Under, given the above, but this certainly isn't a bet I'm rushing out to make. 

Timberwolves vs Clippers betting trend to know

Minnesota is an NBA-worst 2-7 ATS as an underdog this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Clippers.

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