The future of the NBA is on exhibition in the opening round of the Western Conference playoffs, when the Memphis Grizzlies and Minnesota Timberwolves tip off their postseason series on Saturday.
Memphis and Minnesota are among the youngest rosters in the league and clash in this Round 1 contest thanks to the Timberwolves edging the L.A. Clippers for the No. 7 seed in the play-in tournament on Tuesday.
The second-seeded Grizzlies have been resting for almost a week and are 7-point home favorites for Game 1, with the home team winning all four meetings between these clubs this season.
Check out our free NBA picks and predictions for Timberwolves at Grizzlies on April 16.
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Timberwolves vs Grizzlies odds
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Following Minnesota’s victory over L.A. on Tuesday, bookies open the Grizzlies as 7-point home chalk and that has since slimmed to -6.5 at some shops. The total for this game opened at 235 points and has bounced between that opener and 234.5 points as of Wednesday afternoon.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Timberwolves vs Grizzlies predictions
- Prediction: Timberwolves +7 (-115)
- Prediction: Over 234.5 (-110)
- Best bet: Timberwolves 1H +4 (-110)
Predictions made on 4/13/2022 at 1:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Timberwolves vs Grizzlies game info
• Location: FedExForum, Memphis, TN
• Date: Saturday, April 16, 2022
• Tip-off: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Timberwolves vs Grizzlies series odds
Timberwolves: +260
Grizzlies: -320
Timberwolves vs Grizzlies betting preview
Key injuries
Timberwolves: Taurean Prince G (Questionable).
Grizzlies: Tyrell Terry G (Questionable), Killian Tillie F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 36-16 in Timberwolves’ last 52 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies.
Timberwolves vs Grizzlies picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The situational handicapper in me has an itch after watching Minnesota celebrate like it won the West and Patrick Beverley tear up from beating his former team in the play-in game on Tuesday. Call me a soulless ghost, but it stinks of letdown.
The situational capper in me also looks at the Grizzlies, who have been parked since last Sunday — and even longer if you consider that Memphis sat its starters for that blowout loss to Boston in the regular-season finale.
This postseason opener is a massive step for the Grizzlies, who stunned their way to the No. 2 seed and hit their projected win total of 41 victories at the All-Star break, closing the campaign with a 56-26 SU mark and an NBA-best 52-29-1 record against the spread.
Memphis does everything you want a playoff contender to do. It plays some of the best two-way basketball in the land (ranked Top 6 in offensive/defensive rating), protects home court (73% winning percentage inside the FedExForum), and has a deep roster of contributors (No. 1 in bench minutes).
Those aspects all fold into the series price for this Round 1 run-in, with bookies working out the Grizz as -295 favorites to advance (74.68% implied probability). The Game 1 moneyline is sitting in the same range, with Memphis opening at -310 (75.61%) and sliding down to -280 (73.68%) for Saturday.
That drop in moneyline odds, as well as the spread, shows early sharp opinions on the Timberwolves, who will have the edge in intensity over a stagnant Grizzlies team having just come from a postseason-like frying pan and now jumping into the playoff fires. Minnesota will put Memphis on its heels in the first half of this game, which means pushing the pace and making plenty of shots.
The Timberwolves are the highest-scoring team in the NBA and have high-energy players in Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell, who showed they could lift this team against a very good Clippers defense — combining for 59 points.
Memphis has had trouble slowing down the Timberwolves in their four meetings this season, lugging a defensive rating of 119.0 and allowing Minnesota to post almost 121 points per game. The Wolves knocked down an average of 17 3-pointers in those matchups, with Russell and Edwards combining for more than eight of those triples and big man Karl-Anthony Towns stretching the floor with his perimeter touch.
The Grizzlies will likely grind out this series and have a good shot at winning Game 1 as well. But this spread seems a little lofty considering the mismatch in activity between these two teams.
Prediction: Timberwolves +7 (-115 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
The last time these teams met, bookmakers pegged their game with an opening total of 239 points, which ran as high as 241 at closing. It was one of just 20 games this season with an Over/Under of 241 or higher. The Wolves and Grizzlies produced “just” 233 combined points and played Under in that February 24 tilt but it was also the first game back for both teams off the All-Star break.
The opening number for Game 1 is at 234.5 and while Minnesota made it out of a grinder of a play-in game with Los Angeles — a collective 213 points scored — expecting the Timberwolves to suddenly show up on defense isn’t realistic, no matter how hard Beverley cries.
Memphis has a motor, ranked fourth in pace rating and utilizing that youthful speed to attack in transition. The Grizzlies hang nearly 25 points per game and own a scoring frequency of 50.8% in those up-tempo sets, while Minnesota gives up 21.5 points per game to transition attacks, which celebrate a 50% scoring clip versus the Wolves.
You have two offenses squaring off that love to fire it up early into the shot clock. Memphis attempts 35% of its shots in what is ranked as “early to very early” (18 to 24 seconds) according to the NBA. Minnesota is even more trigger-happy, putting up 37% of its total field goal attempts in that same window fresh into the shot clock.
That pace produces a ton of possessions — warranting a total of 241 points in their last meeting — and should easily breeze Over this Game 1 number Saturday, especially if the stagnant Grizzlies are caught flat-footed on defense in the early workings of the opener.
Prediction: Over 234.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
Best bet
As mentioned, the letdown looms for Minnesota but I’m weighing the fact that the Wolves come into this game with sweat on their brows compared to the Grizzlies, who have been inactive and watching from home for nearly a week. Or at least I am for the first 24 minutes.
Rarely do opponents match or overwhelm Memphis with intensity and energy, but Minnesota has those batteries in Edwards and Russell right out of the gate. Those two averaged 21.3 and 31 points in the four games versus Memphis this season, posting a collective average of 27 points in the opening half while shooting 57% and 50%, respectively, from the floor.
Defensively, the Timberwolves are dangerous. Minnesota tops the NBA in forced turnovers and leaned on that disruptive style to edge the Clippers in the fourth quarter of Tuesday’s play-in game, finishing that win with 17 forced turnovers.
Memphis’ chemistry will be stale in these opening frames after sitting for so long, as well as playing without standout guard Ja Morant for all but one of the past 11 games. In that lone outing from Morant last Saturday, the Griz squashed New Orleans but finished with 19 turnovers — four from Morant — which handed the Pelicans 21 points off those mistakes.
We like Minnesota to keep it close in the first two quarters, especially with this first-half spread front-loaded at Timberwolves +4.
Pick: Timberwolves first half +4 (-110 at DraftKings)
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