Timberwolves vs Grizzlies Game 5 Picks and Predictions: Who Has Edge in Crucial Swing Game?

This opening round NBA Playoffs set between the Memphis Grizzlies and Minnesota Timberwolves is laying the foundation for what could be the next great rivalry in the West. 

Two young rosters stocked with promise and potential superstars for two franchises that have lived in the basement of the conference for the past half-decade. And after four postseason games, Memphis and Minnesota are knotted at 2-2 heading into Game 5, where books are pegging the home team as 6-point chalk.  

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for Timberwolves at Grizzlies on April 26.

Timberwolves vs Grizzlies odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Memphis opened as big as -7.5 coming back home after a Game 4 loss at Minnesota. Early action has since slimmed that spread to as low as -5.5. The total for Game 5 opened at 232.5 points and has seen some movement around that number, climbing to 233 and sliding as low as 232 points.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Timberwolves vs Grizzlies predictions

• Prediction: Timberwolves +6.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 232.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Timberwolves 1Q TT Under 29.5 (-130)

Predictions made on 4/26/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Timberwolves vs Grizzlies game info

• Location: FedExForum, Memphis, TN
• Date: Tuesday, April 26, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT

Timberwolves vs Grizzlies series odds

Timberwolves: +230
Grizzlies: -300

Timberwolves vs Grizzlies betting preview

Key injuries

Timberwolves: No injuries to report.
Grizzlies: Ziaire Williams F (Questionable), Santi Aldama C (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 5-2 in the Grizzlies’ last seven games as favorites. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies.

Timberwolves vs Grizzlies picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

One-sided wins were the tale of this series through the first three games, with those contests decided by an average margin of almost 17 points. Game 4, however, saw both teams tighten their belts for an exciting 119-118 win for Minnesota, avenging their gruesome 26-point collapse in Game 3.

Outside of a 28-point blasting of the Wolves in Game 2, the Grizzlies haven’t looked overly dominant – or at least like a No. 2 seed playing a No. 7 club that had to run an extra play-in contest to qualify. A listless Game 1 loss, a 26-point hole, and now a 1-point defeat (after trailing by as many as 15 points) has bettors falling out of love with Memphis, taking as much as a 2-point chunk out of this opening spread.

Game 5 is historically the most important outing in a best-of-seven series, a fact that’s not lost on either team. It’s something that the Grizzlies need to remind themselves about right from the opening tip, as slow starts have plagued them in this series so far. 

Memphis has been outscored by an average of 7.5 points in the opening 12 minutes of the first four games and those sluggish starts have acted as an anchor for one of the fastest offenses in the NBA. The Grizzlies ran the highest rate of transition sets in the league during the regular season for 1.11 points per play and a scoring frequency of 50.8%. 

In the postseason, Memphis is having a tougher time finding that high gear and posting just 1.02 ppp in transition – panning out to almost four points less per game. The Grizz are being forced to run more halfcourt sets and look lost at times, leaning on spot-up shooting much more than they would like, especially for a team that’s not great from mid-range or beyond the arc. 

A big reason for those issues is that Ja Morant can’t find his flow – shooting less than 40% for the series – and has been delegated playmaking duties (35 assists in the last three games) which is not what you want from your star scorer and guy who injects this offense with nitro when he gets going. He needs to be taking and making more shots after watching his field goal attempts plummet from 22.5 post-break to just 16 per contest in the playoffs, including a mere 13 shots in Game 4.

The home crowd could kick start this young Grizzlies team and lift it to the win, but I think we’ve seen the last of the blowouts between these budding rivals and it’s a dog (vs. Bear) fight from here on out.

Prediction: Timberwolves +6.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Over/Under analysis

Minnesota scored 31 points from the foul line in Game 4, which not only cost Memphis the win but took a sizable wad out of head coach Taylor Jenkins' wallet after he blasted the officials.

The Grizzlies committed 33 personal fouls and sent the Wolves to the stripe for 40 free throws. That’s a lot of scoring with the clock stopped and one of the main reasons why the Game 4 total topped the number of 232.5.

The crew for tonight’s Game 5 won’t be as liberal with the whistles, headed by notorious “no caller” Marc Davis along with Gediminas Petraitis, both of which sit near the bottom in average fouls per game among NBA referees.

Books went high with the opening totals for this series, and rightfully so with two of the most exciting offenses in the NBA. But after Game 2 pumped out just 220 points and Game 3 produced 199, oddsmakers trimmed the total to 234 for Game 4, which action ran down to a closing number of 232.5.

The Grizzlies can’t afford to dig themselves out of a hole again, most importantly early into the game. So, while their offense may not be ready to keep pace, the defense can push back and slow down the Timberwolves out of the blocks which will set the tone for the rest of the game. 

Expect a call-back to the classic “grit and grind” defense of past Grizzlies teams, not allowing Wolves standouts Karl Anthony-Towns and Anthony Edwards to get comfortable.

Prediction: Under 232.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Best bet

First quarters in this series have been played at a feverish pace (for the postseason) of 105.5 and have produced an average of more than 65 total points, with the Wolves doing the lion’s share of the work at 36.3 1Q points per game and shooting an effective field goal rate of 60.6% in those frames.

Those hot starts have allowed Minnesota’s stars to get in rhythm and go on extended runs, which have put the Grizzlies behind the eight ball early on. That was amplified by first-quarter foul trouble in Game 4, in which Jenkins had to go 12-men deep in the opening frame just to save bodies for the rest of the contest.

The referee crew for Game 5 is already prone to swallowing their whistles but after such one-side foul counts in Game 4, the officials may be apprehensive to make any soft calls – especially in front of what will be a crazy crowd in the FedExForum. 

Memphis desperately needs to put the breaks on the Wolves early on so it doesn't have to scratch and claw for the remaining 36 minutes, and we expect the game pace and output from the Wolves to drop in the first 12 minutes of action tonight.

Pick: Minnesota 1Q Team Total Under 29.5 (-130 at bet365)

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