Timberwolves vs Lakers Picks and Predictions: Schroder Shines Against Minnesota

The objective for postseason-bound teams is to peak just before the second season starts. And for the Los Angeles Lakers, that’s the case.

Los Angeles underwent a resurrecting overhaul at the trade deadline in mid-February and has battled its way into the No. 7 seed with a home game against the eighth-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves in the NBA Play-In Tournament tonight.

Minnesota enters the play-in on a three-game winning streak but is far from focused ahead of its most important game of the season. The T-Wolves are making headlines for the wrong reasons, with starting center Rudy Gobert suspended for punching a teammate and power forward Jaden McDaniels out for the foreseeable future with a broken hand after punching a wall.

Add in the questionable status of star Karl-Anthony Towns, and the spread and Over/Under total for this Western play-in game has gone on a bit of a ride. I break down the odds and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Timberwolves vs. Lakers on April 11.

Timberwolves vs Lakers best odds

Timberwolves vs Lakers picks and predictions

If you look at the Los Angeles Lakers’ projected output for tonight’s play-in tournament tilt with Minnesota, the trio of LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and D’Angelo Russell bubble up to the top of the board. However, one player who could benefit most from the missing pieces of the Minnesota Timberwolves frontcourt is backup guard Dennis Schroder.

Schroder, who didn’t dress the final two games of the regular season due to neck and Achilles soreness, is cleared for action tonight and will be chomping at the bit to play his frenetic pace and get to the paint for points.

“He’s feeling a lot better,” Lakers head coach Darvin Ham told the Los Angeles Times. “Keeping him out last game was more precautionary than anything. So, he’s had a few days to get some treatment. He’s out here on the court now going through some stuff. But he’s going to be fine. We look forward to having him back in the lineup.”

Schroder’s point total for tonight is a modest 7.5 (Over -120), which reflects his recent absence as well as a downtick in minutes and production in April due to those ailments. However, Schroder is a walking bucket when ready to go and I have him projected for at least 10 points against Minnesota tonight.

He is averaging 13 points per game since the All-Star break and picks up almost five of those tallies from inside the key, which could be open season given the T-Wolves' thin interior.

Minnesota is missing defensive stalwart Rudy Gobert, who changes and blocks plenty of shots. The T-Wolves are also down key defender Jaden McDaniels on the weak-side help, opening a clean path to the basket for a Lakers attack that loves to score inside.

Schroder scored 11 points on 3-for-4 shooting and picked up 5 of 6 free throws in 23 minutes against the Timberwolves back on April 2. Even with Russell and Austin Reaves pushing him out of the starting lineup, Schroder is still averaging 12.4 points over the past 14 contests.

He’s posted eight or more points in nine of his last 11 games and gone past that plateau in 21 of his previous 28 outings going back to February.

With this spread climbing to Lakers -9 and the Timberwolves in complete disarray after Sunday’s drama-fille finale, the possibility of a Los Angeles blowout is real. That means more minutes for the bench, giving Schroder a very high ceiling on Tuesday night.

My best bet: Dennis Schroder Over 7.5 points (-120)

Timberwolves vs Lakers spread analysis

Books opened with the Lakers as short as 5.5-point home favorites once the play-in tournament seeding was set Sunday night. Other shops opened at -6.5, but the entire market jumped to L.A. -7.5 when news broke that Minnesota would not only be without McDaniels due to a broken hand, but that Gobert would sit out Tuesday’s game after taking a swing at teammate Kyle Anderson during Sunday’s win over New Orleans.

That line has since crept to as high as -8.5, with Towns listed as questionable due to a calf injury. However, Karl-Anthony Towns has had that designation for just about every game since returning to action in late March after missing the bulk of the regular season.

Part of that growing spread is also the public passion for the Lakers, who have been a different team since swapping out a good chunk of their roster during the trade deadline.

Los Angeles is 18-8 straight up and 15-11 against the spread in the two months with this current roster, including winning nine of its last 11 games coming into the play-in tournament (6-5 ATS). The Lakers' defense has been the backbone of this turnaround, but the offense has flourished with LeBron, AD, and Russell all returning to health in the past eight outings.

In that stretch, L.A. is averaging 123.5 points per contest (tied for most in the NBA) and owns a net rating of +7.2 in those eight outings. That hasn’t been an automatic windfall for Lakers' bettors, however, with the team going 4-4 ATS and facing some lofty spreads as big favorites in those games.

Minnesota soured bettors by losing outright to Portland as a 19-point home favorite on April 2, which was one of the biggest betting upsets in NBA history. Since then, Minnesota has bounced back with three straight victories and three straight paydays, including holding on for a 113-108 win over New Orleans as 3.5-point chalk in the face of all its recent drama.

These teams clashed back on March 31, with L.A. winning 123-111 as a 2-point road favorite inside the Target Center. Both teams had their oft-injured stars in action, with Gobert and McDaniels combining for 29 points and 16 rebounds.

With those starters out, the T-Wolves will fill those frontcourt gaps with Anderson and Taurean Prince tonight. Backup center Naz Reid is also out of action after undergoing wrist surgery and backup guard Jaylen Nowell is listed as questionable, which leaves Minnesota very thin on the bench.

Timberwolves vs Lakers Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under total for this play-in tournament opener hit the board at 229.5 points and has since climbed to as big as 233 points due to Minnesota missing some key defenders in the frontcourt in Gobert and McDaniels.

The April 2 encounter between these teams opened with the Over/Under at 232.5 and climbed to 233.5 before it and closed at 231.5 points, with the 123-111 final finishing just above that number.

The Lakers shot 50% from the field but weren’t sharp from outside and made good on 24 of their 30 free-throw attempts. The Timberwolves hit at a 42% clip and allowed 69 second-half points after leading by 10 at halftime.

As mentioned, the Lakers’ offense has stepped it up ever since James returned to action on March 26. Los Angeles owns an offensive rating of 120.0 in that span and has topped the total in each of those eight games.

That includes going Over the closing total of 231.5 against Minnesota on April 2, which is just one of two Over results for the T-Wolves in their previous eight games. The Timberwolves are 2-6 O/U in that stretch and have played solid defense (110.4 rating) against some notable scoring attacks, limiting the likes of Golden State, Sacramento, and Phoenix.

How that defense will look without Gobert protecting the key and McDaniels matching up on James is another thing. The Lakers love to push the ball in transition and are among the top teams at attacking the rim for points in the paint. Los Angeles scored 64 points inside in the last meeting with Minnesota and this interior defense is in much worse shape tonight. 

Timberwolves vs Lakers betting trend to know

The Lakers finished the regular season 8-0 to the Over. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Lakers.

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