Depending on your fandom, the Minnesota Timberwolves’ series-opening victory over the Los Angeles Lakers was either a “statement win” or a “feeling-out game”.
Regardless of allegiance, tonight’s Game 2 is unquestionably a “must-win” for both sides.
I go beyond the spread and total and play the game within the game with my best NBA picks for Timberwolves vs. Lakers on April 22.
Best Timberwolves vs Lakers props
Reaves o4.5 assists (+115 at bet365)
Reid 10+ points/5+ rebounds (+110 at bet365)- Doncic o3.5 threes (-110 at bet365)
Timberwolves vs Lakers player props for April 22
Austin Reaves Over 4.5 assists (+115 at bet365)
Give credit to the Minnesota Timberwolves' defense in Game 1, because the Los Angeles Lakers’ offense was out of sorts. Los Angeles shot below 40% from the field and recorded only 15 assists on 33 made field goal attempts.
That panned out to a 45% assist rate, which is a steep decline from Los Angeles’ 62% assist-to-FGM ratio since Luka Doncic arrived in February. Since then, the Purple and Gold averaged 25 assists in the final 32 games of the schedule.
Guard Austin Reaves didn’t hold back on his review of L.A.’s Game 1 efforts, stating that the Timberwolves’ physicality threw the Lakers for a loop and the offense “couldn't find a way to get a bucket.” Reaves pointed the finger at himself and vowed to grab control of the L.A. attack in Game 2. "I have to be better. I have to help us control the game better,” he told reporters.
Reaves recorded just three assists in Game 1, playing Under his closing prop total of 4.5 dimes. However, he did lead Los Angeles with eight potential assists, and player projections for Game 2 are calling for at least five helpers from Reaves tonight.
His playmaking duties have taken a back seat since the arrival of Doncic, who handles the ball more. But before the playoffs, Reaves did record five or more assists in 10 of his final 16 games.
My forecast calls for 5.4 assists from the Reaves, and with him taking “control”, I expect him to generate offense and feed Doncic and Lebron James. Given that projection, the Over 4.5 Assists should be priced around -150, but you can find great value at +115.
Naz Reid 10+ points/5+ rebounds SGP (+110 at bet365)
It was a big weekend for T-Wolves’ super sub Naz Reid.
Not only did he spark Minnesota’s Game 1 victory with 23 points and five rebounds off the bench (played 31 minutes), but the 6-foot-9 forward got a shoutout during WrestleMania, with one fan’s Naz Reid towel prominently featured in the crowd in Las Vegas.
Reid even took a WWE-like elbow to the dome during the fourth quarter of the series opener but returned to play and made a back-breaking 3-pointer to secure the win for the Timberwolves.
After his Game 1 performance, Reid’s points prop is padded heavily toward the Over (-130) while his Over 5.5 Rebounds market is listed at +105. Player projections all sit at 12 points or higher, with a ceiling of 14 points. His rebounding forecast ranges from 5.1 to 7.3 boards.
Reid’s combo prop of points + rebounds has a total of 17.5 O/U, with the Over priced at -115. My projections come out to 18.98 combined stats, which should have the points + rebounds Over listed at -124. But on the low end of those models, we’re looking at 12 points and five rebounds — just shy of the combo total.
I’m going to take a different approach to a similar outcome with a little more risk involved, making a same-game parlay with Reid’s milestone markets. Let's tie 10+ points and 5+ rebounds together for a +110 return.
Luka Doncic Over 3.5 threes (-110 at bet365)
Luka Doncic was the Lakers’ lone bright spot in Game 1, scoring 37 points in his playoff debut for the Purple and Gold.
Fifteen of those tallies came from beyond the arc, where Doncic was 5-for-10 from distance. That marked the 16th time Luka has made four or more triples in his last 22 games.
He’s attempting an average of 10 shots from long range in that span, hitting at a 42% clip. Doncic has eclipsed his 3-pointer prop total in five of his last six outings, including the 3.5 O/U on the weekend.
After playing the Timberwolves in last year’s Western Conference finals, Doncic knows where to pick his spots versus this Minnesota defense. He hit four or more 3-pointers in four of those five playoff games.
Player projections all sit either on or north of this current total, with my projection at 3.7 makes from downtown for Doncic.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
