Timberwolves vs Nuggets Game 2 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Murray Dimes Denver to Victory

The Denver Nuggets completely outclassed the Minnesota Timberwolves in the opener of their Western Conference quarterfinals matchup, taking Game 1 in a dominating 109-80 victory.

The Timberwolves just had no answer for the Nuggets in Game 1. Denver employed a balanced attack on offense and a suffocating defense, which has been an underrated part of the team’s success this season.

Minnesota’s only hope could be that a wrist injury could hamper the effectiveness of two-time reigning MVP Nikola Jokic. Is that wonky wrist enough to keep this game competitive and the Timberwolves within the 8-point spread?

I break down the NBA odds and bring you the best bet in my NBA picks and predictions for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets below.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Game 2 best odds

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Game 2 picks and predictions

It was an all-around ugly performance from the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 1 and while it was their pitiful offense that grabbed most of the headlines (more on that later), the defense wasn’t much better.

The Denver Nuggets only scored 109 points in the win, but they were very efficient, shooting 46% from the floor and 41% from 3-point range. The Nuggets moved the ball pretty well like they've done all season.

Denver ranked second in the NBA in assist rate this season and assisted on 24 of its 41 buckets in Game 1. Nuggets point guard Jamal Murray handed out eight of those assists and I think he can have a similar performance in Game 2.

Murray averaged 6.2 assists per game this season but he did an even better job of getting his teammates involved down the stretch this season. Over Murray's last full regular season games (he played just nine minutes in an April 4 meeting against the Rockets), he averaged 7.7 assists per game and clearly carried that over into the playoffs.

Generally, the Timberwolves have done a good job at limiting opponent assists but the Nuggets have always given them a problem. Not counting a Feb. 5 meeting where the Nuggets rested half their team, Denver has averaged 30.5 assists per game in four meetings against the T-Wolves. 

Murray’s assist total for this matchup is set at 6.5. He’s gone Over that number in nine of his last 11 full games and did so in Game 1. At even money, he’s worth backing to do so once again.

My best bet: Jamal Murray Over 6.5 assists (+100)

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Game 2 spread analysis

The Nuggets closed Game 1 as 8-point home chalk and that’s exactly where they opened for Game 2. After the performance in Game 1, they've seen the early action and have moved to -8.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.

As noted, Game 1 was about as bad as it could get for the Timberwolves. The 80-point performance was the worst of the season for the Timberwolves. They shot just 37% from the floor, including 31% from beyond the arc, and it was the Minnesota bigs who really struggled.

Karl-Anthony Towns put up just 11 points on 5-for-15 shooting, while Rudy Gobert put up just eight points and was a staggering -28. What may be even more shocking is that even with the combination of Towns and Gobert, the Timberwolves were easily outworked on the boards, losing the rebounding battle 54-38.

Now, it seems that the only thing that can hold Denver back is a potential wrist injury for two-time MVP Nikola Jokic. While he's designated as questionable to play, he did practice on Tuesday and told reporters he isn’t worried about it.

The Nuggets will slow this game down and their offense is better built to work in the halfcourt while their underrated defense will continue to smother a Timberwolves team that is a very streaky shooting team. I would lean toward laying the points with the home team tonight.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Game 2 Over/Under analysis

The total for Game 1 closed at 225, but thanks to Minnesota’s poor shooting performance the game landed Under by a whopping 36 points and there has been a bit of an adjustment as a result. This time around, the total is on the board at 223.5, but even that may not be low enough.

Even on an efficient night shooting the ball, the Nuggets still put up just 109 points. That’s partly because they play at one of the slowest tempos in the league. Denver ranked 26th in the NBA in pace of play and as a result, they ranked eighth in scoring defense, allowing just 112.5 points per game in the regular season.

Even though Minnesota has some solid offensive numbers this season, its flaws started to show down the stretch. In the T-Wolves' last six games as an underdog, they're averaging just 101.2 points per game and scored 100 points or fewer in four of those games.

The Nuggets know their best shot of going up 2-0 in this series is by slowing the game down and forcing Minnesota to beat them in the halfcourt. I’d lean Under once again.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets betting trend to know

The Under is 5-0 in the Timberwolves' last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 6-0 in the Nuggets' last six home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Game 2 game info

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Game 2 key injuries

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