The Minnesota Timberwolves are out to steal both games in the Bay Area while the Golden State Warriors are trying to stay alive long enough to get injured star Stephen Curry back.
Needless to say, tonight’s Game 4 is a massive matchup for both sides.
I dive into the individual efforts and give my best Timberwolves vs Warriors props and NBA picks on Monday, May 12.
Best Timberwolves vs Warriors props
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Randle u6.5 assists (-125) - Edwards o27.5 points (-115)
- Conley o3.5 assists (-110)
Timberwolves vs Warriors player props for May 12
Julius Randle Under 6.5 assists (-125 at bet365)
Julius Randle has been wheeling and dealing so far in this series, recording assist totals of six, 11, and 12 in the first three games.
That’s a notable jump in playmaking compared to the last series (4.4 assists per game) and his season output of 4.7 dimes per contest. So far, Randle’s advanced metrics show an average of 13.7 potential assists versus the Golden State Warriors, as the Minnesota Timberwolves use him as a release to find players running off screens.
His usual assist total was coming in at 4.5 O/U and jumped to 5.5 O/U after his 11 dimes in Game 2, which he blew away with a dozen dimes in Game 3. That has his assist prop climbing to 6.5 O/U — a bar usually reserved for point guards.
I’m bucking the trend and buying back the Under 6.5 assists. Game projections only go as high as five helpers with my number at 4.6 from Randle tonight. Given that forecast, the Under 6.5 assists should be asking -400 or more and other operators are asking as high as -164.
Before those last two games with the Warriors, Randle dished out seven or more assists only 16 times all season. Golden State’s defense gives up just 25.4 assists per game (eighth-fewest) and boasts an opponent assist-to-FGM rate of 63.3% (12th-lowest) on the year.
Anthony Edwards Over 27.5 points (-115 at bet365)
If the Wolves are going to take both games in the Bay Area, Anthony Edwards has to be at his best. Minnesota’s main attraction led the charge with 36 points in Game 3, including making five 3-pointers.
Twenty-eight of those 36 points came in the second half after Minnesota adjusted its game plan for ANT.
The Wolves didn’t clog things up for Edwards in the second half, shying away from setting on-the-ball screens when Edwards was in possession — cutting down on double teams. He also got to play off the ball and use his speed and quicks on cuts.
"I think just playing off the ball is better for me playing versus this team," Edwards told the media after Game 3’s offensive eruption. "…Finchy put me in great positions, less ball screens because all they going to do is probably trap it."
Edwards took 28 shots in Game 3 — 16 coming in the second half — and also went to the free-throw line eight times (making five). Golden State really doesn’t have anyone who can keep up with ANT when he gets a full head of speed and Game 4 models call for another big night.
Forecasts range from 25.7 to 29.1 points, with the bulk of projections sitting beyond the 27.5-point total. My number comes out to 29 points from Edwards, who always has a higher ceiling.
Mike Conley Over 3.5 Assists (-110 at bet365)
The Wolves’ veteran point guard dished out five assists in both Games 1 and 2 (recording only two in 17 minutes of Game 3’s blowout).
Yet, his assist prop for Game 4 is at 3.5 dimes — a standard bar over his last seven postseason games.
Conley’s advanced stats show an average of 7.3 potential assists for the series, including 10 potential assists in Game 3.
Conley logged 28 minutes on Friday — his second-highest floor time so far in these playoffs — and Game 4 models all sit at four assists or greater, with a high of 5.5 dimes from some projections.
My number comes out to 4.5 assists for tonight, which should have the Conley Over 3.5 dimes juiced to -180 but you can get -110 at bet365.
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