Trail Blazers vs Bucks Picks and Predictions: Nurkic Gets Exposed by Giannis & Co.

The Portland Trail Blazers can’t catch a break. They managed to tread water when Damian Lillard missed time early in the season due to a calf injury, but now he’s set to miss another two or so weeks with a new, separate injury in the same calf.

Their quest to stay afloat this time starts with a stiff challenge, as the Milwaukee Bucks — who are 8-1 at home — play host to the Trail Blazers Monday night. 

Our NBA picks and predictions for Trail Blazers vs. Bucks are shorting the performance of Portland big man Jusuf Nurkic, who has his work cut out for him against the best frontcourt defense in the NBA.

Trail Blazers vs Bucks best odds

Trail Blazers vs Bucks picks and predictions

Jusuf Nurkic is a quality NBA center — certainly starting caliber — but not better than that. He’s solid on offense but following his leg injury, he’s not exceptional at any aspect on that side of the ball... and it would take an exceptional center to bet against this Milwaukee Bucks defense at the moment.

This is the best defense in the NBA — with a 105.8 defensive rating — largely on the backs of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez. Giannis and Brook would both individually be the best defensive players on probably 25 of the league’s 30 teams, and their complimentary offensive skills allow them to share the Milwaukee frontcourt simultaneously.

Their intimidation is why the Bucks allow the fifth-fewest shots at the rim of any NBA team, and why they have the best opponent shot profile in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glass.

Nurkic is averaging 13.4 points on the season, a lower 11.2 over his last five games, and this line supposes that he should have an easier time on Monday against the Bucks than he does on an average outing. That’s just not sound reasoning.

Yes, Nurkic scored 17 and 18 points in his last two outings, but those were against the paper-thin interior defenses of the Utah Jazz and Brooklyn Nets, neither of whom play a traditional 7-foot center.

The Bucks, meanwhile, play two of them together at the same time, and they’re both Defensive Play of the Year caliber to boot. Nurkic can punish mismatches and is a good standstill passer, but he’s not so good that he can go to work on Lopez — and certainly not Giannis.

Nurkic also missed three games recently due to a left quad injury, and his backup Drew Eubanks showed enough in his absence that Chauncey Billups has opted to keep Nurkic below 30 minutes per game ever since. With Eubanks a solid option at the backup five, I’d expect Nurkic’s minutes to remain in check particularly if this one becomes a blowout early like the NBA odds are projecting.

The Bucks are the best interior defense in basketball. The Bosnian Beast is going to have his work cut out for him Monday night.

My best bet: Jusuf Nurkic Under 15.5 points (-113)

Trail Blazers vs Bucks spread analysis

Portland has been one of the league’s early Cinderella stories, but they’ve hit another unfortunate snag with Damian Lillard sidelined for the next couple of weeks with a new calf injury. They have room to fall at 10-6, but that record perhaps overstates how good they’ve really been through 16 games.

The Blazers' record is buoyed substantially due to their strong clutch play. Their point differential is just + 0.7, which is below a number of teams considered to be having disappointing seasons including the Minnesota Timberwolves, Philadelphia 76ers, and Golden State Warriors.

So, while the Bucks are just one win ahead in the win column, they’re in an entirely different tier when it comes to quality even with Lillard in the lineup.

Now without Dame, the gap becomes even greater. An 8.5-point spread line might seem healthy, but if there’s value to be had here, it’s on the Milwaukee side of the ledger because the Bucks have been dominant at home, having gone 7-2 ATS at home this year.

Trail Blazers vs Bucks Over/Under analysis

The Milwaukee Bucks are a pretty well-known quantity. They’re a lockdown team inside and are experimenting with ways to deny more 3-point attempts this season. They should be better on both ends with the forecasted returns of Jrue Holiday and Pat Connaughton, but this 216-point total is more about what you think of the Blazers.

After so many years of watching Damian Lillard's teams, it’s a jarring experience to watch this squad flip the script in so many ways. The Dame and CJ era under former Portland head coach Terry Stotts was defined by otherworldly offensive play that mitigated a typically borderline unwatchable defense.

This new look Trail Blazers team is one of much greater balance. On the season, they’re 15th on offense and 12th on defense and over the last two weeks, are climbing closer to the coveted position of ranking in the Top 10 on both sides of the ball.

They’re yet to hit the highest highs of those Stotts-era offenses, but they’ve shown a real resilience on the other side of the ball that should serve them well when the games really begin to count in the spring.

Of course, their offense is going to take a significant hit with Lillard out again, and without him, they’re going to struggle to beat the Bucks' base drop defense. Pull-up 3-point shooting is the best way to force a paint-bound team like Milwaukee to give up some easier shots inside, and without Dame, it falls to Anfernee Simons to force the issue.

While Ant is a supreme talent, I’m less sanguine of his chances to force Bud's hand than I would be with Dame. Without knowing how much guys like Holiday or Connaughton are going to be able to give during their first game back, I’m staying away from this one.

Trail Blazers vs Bucks betting trend to know

The Bucks are 7-2 ATS at home this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Trail Blazers vs. Bucks.

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