Sometimes we all need a getaway, and the Portland Trail Blazers are getting the hell out of the Moda Center after dropping four straight home games by a combined total of 10 points. They make their way East to visit the Indiana Pacers on Tuesday.
The Blazers have lost five in a row and have just one win in their previous eight games overall, going just 3-5 against the NBA betting spreads. The Pacers are on the opposite end of the thermometer, riding a three-game hot streak (2-1 ATS) into this non-conference clash.
Here are our NBA free picks and predictions for Trail Blazers vs. Pacers on April 27.
Trail Blazers vs Pacers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonAs of 4:45 p.m. ET, the Trail Blazers are out to 5.5-point favorites at PointsBet USA, after opening -4.5 overnight. However, the shorthanded Pacers are taking 53 percent of bets and 70 percent of money on the spread. The total is the bigger story, soaring from 233.5 to 242. "That's partially just an adjustment with the global market, but also a factor in the total jumping was Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner and Goga Bitadze all being out, so there's little interior presence for Indiana," PointsBet's Wyatt Yearout said, noting oddsmakers expect more scoring opportunities for Portland. Interestingly, the Under is nabbing 74 percent of tickets/62 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameTrail Blazers at Pacers betting preview
Injuries
Trail Blazers: Zach Collins C (Out).
Pacers: Goga Bitadze C (Questionable), Jeremy Lamb G (Out), Domantas Sabonis C (Out), Myles Turner C (Out), T.J. Warren F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Pacers are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Trail Blazers vs. Pacers.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Blazers’ current slump isn’t completely telling of their efforts in recent games. Five of those past seven losses have been by two points or less and the team received a bit of a breather after Sunday’s 120-113 defeat to Memphis before hitting the highway tonight.
A change of pace and a change of scenery can sometimes be all a team needs to snap out of it. Portland doesn’t mind playing on the road, owning a 16-12 SU and ATS mark as a visitor, and gets a foreign foe in way of the Pacers, who have puffed up their record with three recent wins over three of the worst teams in the NBA (Orlando, Detroit and Oklahoma City).
Indiana limps into this matchup with injuries to key contributors like centers Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner, who are ruled out for Tuesday, as well as guard Jeremy Lamb and backup center Goga Bitadze, who are questionable. Those ailments leave the Pacers extremely undersized in the frontcourt, left to start 6-foot-7 JaKarr Sampson at center.
Indiana wasn’t the best rebounding team to begin with — in fact, it was the worst in terms of rebound rate — but has watched that metric sink to 43.9 percent over the past three games. That’s led to a boatload of extra-chance points for opponents, with the Pacers giving up 72 of those bonus points during that trio of wins.
The Trail Blazers usually don’t need help on the offensive end but when you’re desperate, you’ll take any buckets you can get. Portland actually ranks second in points off extra scoring chances in the NBA (15.0) and is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the Association, hauling down almost 13 offensive boards per outing over its last three games.
PREDICTION: Portland -4.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Neither side is known for its defense, which is why this Blazers-Pacers total sits as the highest on Tuesday’s NBA betting board.
Portland was shooting the ball at a 43.7 percent clip during those four home losses, including its 3-point success dipping to 35.3 percent. Lugging those rates down are the struggles of star guard Damian Lillard, who’s shooting 34.7 percent from the field and only 29 percent from distance during this slump.
Lillard’s been working his way back into shape after dealing with a hamstring injury and loves to show out in rival arenas. On the year, he’s averaging 28.9 points per road game and making better than 44 percent of his looks as a visitor.
Indiana is missing some big bodies in the middle and running a smaller lineup also means picking up the tempo. The Pacers already rank among the quickest offensive attacks in the league (pace rating of 101.46) and have turned that up to 105.0 over the past three contests—going Over in two of those games.
PREDICTION: Over 234.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
Portland 7-footer Jusuf Nurkic will stand out like a sore thumb versus the Pacers’ petite frontcourt and that opens up some serious value in the rebounding prop markets.
Nurkic has been a window washer for the Blazers in the past two games, wrangling rebound totals of 19 and 17 in two losses to Memphis, and now faces the worst rebounding team in the league. On the season, he averages just 8.3 rebounds but has upped that to nearly 10 per game in April.
As mentioned, Indiana is dead last in rebound rate and allows opposing centers to grab an average of 12.4 boards per game—third-most in the NBA. Portland is extremely active on the offensive glass, owning a league-best offensive boxout percentage of 31.6, and with Dame shooting his way back into form, Nurkic will have a busy night under the boards.
PREDICTION: Jusuf Nurkic Over 11.5 rebounds (-107)
Trail Blazers vs Pacers betting card
- Portland -4.5 (-110)
- Over 234.5 (-110)
- Jusuf Nurkic Over 11.5 rebounds (-107)
Picks made on 4/27/2021 at 8:40 a.m. ET
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