Trail Blazers vs Pelicans Picks and Predictions: Tired Legs in the Big Easy

It’s a showdown between two of the NBA’s Western Conference playoff hopefuls and the first game between longtime backcourt partners Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum as opponents. Both the Portland Trail Blazers and the New Orleans Pelicans are coming off road wins last night and had to travel to the Big Easy for tonight’s game, so heavy legs might be a factor.

Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans is a game that could have major seeding implications down the line. Our NBA picks and predictions like the Blazers to keep it close against a talented Pels team that is still finding its footing.

Trail Blazers vs Pelicans best odds

Trail Blazers vs Pelicans picks and predictions

The New Orleans Pelicans had certain expectations entering this season. That can be a burden. Expectations can pull a team apart (see: Timberwolves, Minnesota) or they can build you up, and make you stronger as a collective. At 6-5, it’s far too soon to say which way the Pels are going to go, but after a Cinderella run to the playoffs last season without Zion Williamson, expectations are now a fact of life for this Pelicans squad.

The Portland Trail Blazers have no such burden. Few expected much of these Blazers, nor made much of their retooling around Damian Lillard this offseason. But Portland has been one of the best stories of the NBA season so far, and a roster that appeared to be on life support last year now seems to have legs. Much like the plucky Utah Jazz, the Blazers are playing with house money, and are a threat to win each and every night.

The Blazers have been getting contributions from pretty much all over the roster. Jerami Grant has been the athletic small forward Lillard has never had. Anfernee Simons has been a solid scoring replacement for CJ McCollum. Josh Hart is tough, smart, and plays within himself. Even their rookies Shaedon Sharpe and Jabari Walker have stepped up in big moments. 

The Blazers are proving that the books have underestimated them. There’s a certain alchemy to Portland’s makeup, where they’re a team better than the sum of their parts. Their 9-2 record against the spread this season is remarkable, all the more so when you remember that Lillard missed five of those games. That’s why I’m not put off by the potential absences of Jusuf Nurkic and Grant. The Blazers, for the first time in who knows how long, have functional depth on the wing and options at the five.

In addition to Hart and Nassir Little, Justise Winslow has been Chauncey Billups’ utility knife. He played point guard during Dame’s absence and has also comfortably filled in as a small-ball five in spots, including as part of the late rally against the Miami Heat on Monday leading to Hart’s game-winning shot.

The Pelicans are just 6-5 and have stumbled a bit of late (losing three out of five to the Indiana Pacers, Atlanta Hawks, and Los Angeles Lakers). They picked up a big win against the Chicago Bulls last night as Brandon Ingram dragged them to victory in the fading minutes, but this team is far from a finished product. 

All of Zion, CJ, Ingram, and Jonas Valanciunas are scoring less efficiently than their career averages, a sign that the fit remains a work in progress. That’s good enough to beat a lot of teams, but not enough to do it in a convincing fashion. 

NBA odds seem to have anchored this line to preseason expectations, making the difference in quality between these teams to be much larger than it currently is. I like Portland to cover.

My best bet: Blazers +6.5 (-110 bet365)

Trail Blazers vs Pelicans spread analysis

One of the ways you know the Pels are still finding themselves is that they struggle once they experience a little prosperity. They typically follow up a win with a letdown and are 0-4 against the spread in their last four games following a straight-up win, which has contributed to their uninspiring 5-6 ATS record this season.

The Blazers, meanwhile, are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. They’ve shown the quality of a truly good team by taking care of business against inferior opponents and yet continue to get favorable lines even against comparable competition. In terms of point differential, admittedly the Pels have been the better team overall. Much of the Blazers' stellar record has come from (arguably unsustainable) clutch play, including two separate buzzer-beating game-winners. 

But while clutch play is typically non-predictive, it is notable that the Blazers have a clear organizational hierarchy when they step on the floor. It’s not always as obvious who is going to get the ball and when with the Pels. While riding the hot hand on any given night is theoretically a good thing, it also contributes to disorganization against proven competition. 

The Blazers know who they are and the Pels are still figuring it out. That’s a big part of why I like Portland with the points.

Trail Blazers vs Pelicans Over/Under analysis

By reputation alone, one would peg this as a high-scoring game. Until last year’s tankapolooza, Lillard has assured that the Blazers play at the level of a Top-5 offense since 2018, per Cleaning the Glass. Lillard is healthy and playing like an All-NBA 1st team guard again this season, posting an average of 29 points on 66.2% true shooting.

But the Blazers offense has been relatively middling at just 17th overall. Their defense — ranked 9th so far — has largely carried them to their eight wins.

The Pelicans have built an offense-first lineup featuring some of the best isolation scorers at their positions like Zion, Ingram, and McCollum. At 7th, they’re banging on the door of being a Top-5 offense, but they’ve also beaten expectations on the defensive end. The Pels have scrounged together the 11th-best defense, just fractions of a point behind Portland’s.

When you look at the marquee names, a 224.5 Total seems a bit low, but the supporting pieces paint a clearer picture. The Blazers and Pels both sport a variety of multi-positional defensive role players who can slot in seamlessly alongside their scoring stars. While I’m expecting Dame to shake loose, I’d generally expect both teams coming off a road back-to-back will lean on their defenses on Thursday.

Trail Blazers vs Pelicans betting trend to know

The Trail Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans.

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