Warriors vs Grizzlies Game 1 Picks and Predictions: Golden State Plays Spoiler at FedExForum

Memphis Grizzlies bettors either have to be very worried or quite optimistic about the team’s Round 2 matchup with the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Playoffs.

Second-seeded Memphis did not play its best basketball in the opening round series with Minnesota, which means the ceiling is high for the conference quarterfinals… or the Grizzlies are in trouble against a playoff-savvy Golden State side loaded with talent. Books are giving the Warriors credit, installing the Dubs as short road favorites for Game 1 on Sunday.

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for Warriors at Grizzlies on May 1.

Warriors vs Grizzlies odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Memphis opened as a 2.5-point home underdog and that spread slimmed as low as +1 before coming back up. As of Sunday morning, you can find Golden State between -1.5 and -2.5 across mainstream sportsbooks. The total for Game 1 opened at 217.5 points and climbed to as high as 220.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Warriors vs Grizzlies predictions

• Prediction: Warriors -1.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 220.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Warriors ML (-120)

Predictions made on 5/1/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Warriors vs Grizzlies game info

• Location: FedExForum, Memphis, TN
• Date: Sun-day, May 1, 2022
• Tip-off: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC

Warriors vs Grizzlies series odds

Warriors: -265
Grizzlies: +215

Warriors vs Grizzlies betting preview

Key injuries

Warriors: Andre Iguodala F (Out), James Wiseman C (Out).
Grizzlies: Steven Adams C (Out), Santi Aldama C (Out), Ziaire Williams F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Home teams are 18-25 ATS so far in the NBA Playoffs while road favorites own a 12-6 ATS mark (67%) heading into Round 2. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Grizzlies.

Warriors vs Grizzlies picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Memphis hasn’t been allotted much time to dissect its up-and-down six-game series win over Minnesota before tipping off the conference quarterfinals Sunday. 

The Grizzlies edged the Timberwolves in that opening-round set Friday but considering the number of big holes Memphis found itself in, that Round 1 result could have easily gone the other way. The Warriors won’t show them the same courtesy if they get up large on the scoreboard. Golden State neatly packed up its first-round series with Denver in five games, having last played Wednesday.

Memphis star guard Ja Morant is hoping for a much better performance in Round 2 than his hot-and-cold efforts versus Minnesota. The NBA’s Most Improved Player averaged just over 21 points on 38% shooting for the series – against one of the NBA’s worst defenses – and defaulted to a pass-first option when the Grizzlies really needed him to be aggressive.

The Memphis offense feeds off Morant’s motor, especially his aggressiveness to attack the paint. Once inside, Morant is a ferocious finisher at the rim or can kick out to shooters on the wing who need him to collapse the defense in order to get that extra space for 3-point attempts. When Morant plays passive or is locked out of the inside, the Grizzlies struggle to post potent possessions.

That’s the opposite case with Golden State. While the Warriors boast big-time stars like Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, the fate of the team isn’t tethered to those individual performances. Those veterans have plenty of support in Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins, who can shoulder the scoring load and allow Steve Kerr to find different ways to win.

The early matchups in this series could be distinctly different than the rest of the games due to Memphis center Steven Adams’ absence due to COVID. Adams was out of his depth against Karl-Anthony Towns and Minnesota, but his physical presence is welcome in this series, either battling on the boards against a smaller Dubs frontcourt or setting a physical tone with screens on offense. Adams could miss the first two games, which means Warriors forward Draymond Green can play bully against a Memphis frontcourt that runs a little “light” without Adams as the anchor.

The quick turnaround and potential letdown for the Grizz off their first series win in a long, long time is doubly dooming when facing a well-prepared and rested Warriors team. 

Prediction: Warriors -1.5 (-110 at PointsBet)

Over/Under analysis

Morant’s struggles on offense could carry over to Round 2 considering the defensive options Golden State can throw at him. 

Andrew Wiggins is a tough check for Morant, given his length and quickness can force the smaller guard to shoot over top. And behind Wiggins, Gary Payton Jr. is making poppa proud with his defensive prowess, using his speed and tenacity to get inside opponents’ shorts. That combo had success against Morant in the regular season.

Golden State finished the year ranked No. 5 in points in the paint allowed (43.9) and checked Memphis to an average of 50.5 PITP during their four regular-season run-ins – more than seven points below the Grizzlies’ average. Keeping Memphis away from the hoop is vital to the Warriors' defense in this series. The Grizzlies aren’t a dangerous 3-point shooting team, earning just under 30% of their total points from beyond the arc (fifth lowest). 

Perhaps the Warriors’ best defensive strategy is on offense. The Dubs were extremely efficient versus Denver in Round 1, posting an effective field goal rate of 60.8% (tops in the opening round). The Warriors hit triples at a 42.2% clip (another playoff best) but when the Nuggets sold out on stopping the 3-pointer, Golden State gladly took those easy 2-point buckets.

The Warriors have to be careful not to get into a track meet with Memphis, which means extending possessions to slow the tempo and scoring at an efficient rate, which forces the get-up-and-go Grizzlies to inbound the ball on the bulk of possessions instead of flying out in transition. This is easier to do with Adams out and not patrolling the paint for at least Game 1.

Turnovers are also something Golden State must protect against. It coughed the ball up just 13 times per game in the opening round - a stark improvement on its regular-season rate of 14.9. Those careless errors quickly get exchanged for buckets from a high-octane team like Memphis, which averaged 21.5 points off turnovers versus the Wolves. Expect a cautious and calculated pace when the Warriors have possession.

Prediction: Under 220.5 (-110 at PointsBet)

Best bet

The Grizzlies owned the season series with the Warriors, boasting a 3-1 record SU and ATS. Those matchups don’t mean spit in Game 1. 

Golden State didn’t have its full assortment of superstars for those previous encounters and the playoffs might as well have a permanent 415 area code while the young Grizzlies are in uncharted waters. Memphis may be the higher seed and the home side in Game 1, but as we’ve seen in the postseason – home-court advantage doesn’t pack the punch you think it does (home teams 24-19 SU/18-25 ATS).

Beating the Grizzlies is an easier gameplan to execute for the Warriors than Memphis picking its poison against the Dubs’ multiple ways of winning – especially with Kerr getting extra time to formulate a strategy to lock up Morant.

But just in case the Grizz carry over that energy from Friday’s win over Minnesota, we’ll shop for the lowest outright price on Golden State and keep it simple for Game 1.

Pick: Warriors moneyline (-120 at PointsBet)

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