Warriors vs Kings Game 2 Picks and Predictions: Curry Puts Playmaking Hat Back On

After snapping a 17-year NBA playoff drought in style, the Sacramento Kings are back for more postseason glory in Game 2 of their Western Conference quarterfinal set with the Golden State Warriors.

Sacramento won an exciting blow-for-blow battle with the defending NBA champs in Game 1 Saturday, edging Golden State 126-123 as a slim 1-point home favorite, but the betting markets are bracing for a bounce back from the Dubs, who have flipped from underdogs to road favorites for Game 2 tonight.

I look into the action moving that line for Monday’s matchup and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Warriors at Kings on April 17.

Warriors vs Kings Game 2 best odds

Warriors vs Kings Game 2 picks and predictions

The Golden State Warriors could see a return to their preferred starting five for Game 2, inserting Andrew Wiggins at small forward to give the Dubs a better two-way player for defensive purposes – or at least more of that particular lineup vs. the Sacramento Kings Monday night.

That bumps point guard Donte DiVincenzo out and puts Stephen Curry at the No. 1 spot, drawing the primary ball-handling duties. Curry as the dedicated point guard along with a potential uptick in minutes in this pressure-filled road game should help turn around his assist production after only dishing out two dimes in Game 1.

The Warriors need to play controlled basketball and can’t afford to get sucked into a track meet with the Kings in transition. The best way to battle that is to work the ball around for high-percentage looks, forcing Sacramento to start the bulk of its possessions off the inbound.

Curry, who averaged six assists per game after the All-Star break, has an assist total of 5.5 (Over -135) and the vig on the Over is climbing as the point total ticks up for Game 2. Some player projections have Curry dishing out more than seven assists tonight while my number is a bit more conservative at 6.6 – but still well above the 5.5-assist prop.

Before Saturday’s two-assist dud, Curry has dished out at least six dimes in six of his final nine games of the regular season, including six assists in the Warriors 119-97 win over a resting Sacramento roster on April 7. The Kings’ soft defense allows the third-most assists per game on the year (26.7 apg) and was 20th in opponents’ assist to field goal rate (61.1%).

Kings head coach Mike Brown focused his defensive energy on disrupting Curry and preventing him from getting into a rhythm in Game 1, rolling out a mix of straight man and box-and-one against the Warriors’ top gun. The latter strategy disrupts the Dubs’ pick-and-roll pieces but does allow Curry to dribble penetrate the zone and kick to shooters on the wing.

With Curry logging a lot of minutes as a pure point guard and generating good looks for Golden State, I like him to dish out at least six assists for the defending champs tonight.

My best bet: Stephen Curry Over 5.5 assists (-135)

Warriors vs Kings Game 2 spread analysis

The Kings opened as 1-point home favorites after their 3-point win in Game 1 and it took only a few hours for the betting market to buy up the Warriors at +1 and force this spread over the fence to as high as Golden State -1.5. As of Monday afternoon, Sacramento is sitting between +1 and +1.5.

According to BetMGM books, 83% of bet count and 91% of the handle is riding on the Warriors tonight. The moneyline is also seeing similar betting slips in favor of the visiting team.

Conventional handicapping has the Kings on high alert for a letdown spot in Game 2 after such an emotional win in that long-awaited playoff return. And considering you have a veteran Warriors side not rattled by a Game 1 loss, that situational spot holds a lot of weight.

Sacramento has been anything but conventional this season. The Kings continue to defy projections and maintain a high level of play when many were waiting for the other shoe to drop on their season. Well, it’s mid-April and the shoe is still holding high.

That said, Golden State did have some success throwing a wrench in the Kings’ halfcourt offense in Game 1 and checked Sacramento to 45% shooting from the field and just 12 total 3-point makes. The Warriors played dropback defense on Kings point forward Domantas Sabonis and stuck to the hip of Sacramento’s guards, not allowing them space off cuts and screens.

The Dubs spoiled that sound strategy by giving away easy buckets in transition and on the offensive glass, with Sacramento collecting 37 combined points off turnovers and second-chance buckets, which were sparked by 17 offensive rebounds.

The Warriors' home/away splits have been defined by a drop in defensive intensity all season, but with Andrew Wiggins back in the mix after being away from the team for more than two months, he gives Golden State much more depth on both ends of the floor and, as he proved in last year’s postseason, he can be a force on the boards.

The Dubs didn’t play a great game by any means in Game 1 and still only lost by three points against the No. 3 seed inside the loudest venue in the NBA. Head coach Steve Kerr is a master of adjustments and will tighten the bolts on his rotations and transition defense in Game 2.

Going back to the first title run for this current core, Golden State is 26-8 SU and 21-12-1 ATS coming off a loss in the playoffs since 2015.

Sacramento has been a home underdog only 11 times this season, going 4-7 SU and 5-6 ATS in those games.

Warriors vs Kings Game 2 Over/Under analysis

The Game 1 final score of 126-123 rolled over the closing total of 237 points Saturday night, thanks to 133 second-half points. The series opener posted a pace rating of 105.5 – the fastest tempo of every Game 1 this past weekend – and bookies are bracing for more of the same with the Game 2 total.

Monday’s Over/Under opened at 239 points and has since climbed to as high as 240, with some books seeing buyback to 239.5 as of this afternoon. According to BetMGM books, 54% of bet count is on the Over while 62% of the money wagered on the total is also siding with a high-scoring finish in Sacramento tonight.

The firepower is all over the floor for both sides, as the Kings and Warriors ranked out No. 1 and No. 2 in points per game respectively during the regular season. However, Saturday’s result was only the second time these clubs have topped the total in their five head-to-head meetings this season (2-2-1 O/U), with totals ranging from 232.5 to 237.5 points.

In fact, should this Over/Under climb back to 240 before tipoff, it would be just the second playoff total of 240 points or more since 2004. Minnesota and Memphis faced a closing number of 240.5 points in their quarterfinal series last April (played Under). NBA playoff totals of more than 235 points have gone 3-6 Over/Under in that same span.

Warriors vs Kings Game 2 betting trend to know

Golden State is 26-8 SU and 21-12-1 ATS coming off a loss in the playoffs since 2014-2015. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Kings.

Warriors vs Kings Game 2 game info

Warriors vs Kings Game 2 key injuries

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