The red-hot Golden State Warriors head to Barclays Center tonight to face the Brooklyn Nets.
Brooklyn has been one of the worst offensive teams in the league and my Warriors vs. Nets predictions are fading that punch-less attack tonight.
Here are my best free NBA picks for this game on March 6.
Warriors vs Nets prediction
My best bet
Nets team total Under 106.5 (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
Since trading for six-time All-Star Jimmy Butler, the Golden State Warriors have gone 9-2 straight up and against the spread. What makes that especially impressive is nine of those contests were on the road, and one of the losses came in a game in which Butler sat out.
The Warriors' biggest improvement has come in their end where Butler gives them another physical and versatile defensive piece. Coach Steve Kerr also inserted Brandin Podziemski and Moses Moody into the starting lineup last month, giving the Dubs additional point-of-attack defenders.
Golden State is second in the league in defensive rating since the All-Star break and has held five of its last eight foes to 102 points or less. The Warriors are coming off a game where they limited the Knicks to 102 points on 24% shooting from deep and now they face a Brooklyn Nets squad that struggles offensively.
Brooklyn is 28th in turnover rate (15.5%) and 2-point percentage (51.4%), while ranking 27th in 3-point percentage (34.3%).
The Nets also sit near the bottom of the league in tempo and rank dead last in offensive rating since the start of January. That has led to them averaging a league-low 101.8 points per game in the new year.
The Nets have scored more than 105 points in just five of their last 27 games. Granted, they were missing leading scorer Cam Thomas for almost all of that stretch but even with Thomas back in the lineup, I don't see them eclipsing their team total tonight.
Warriors vs Nets same-game parlay
Nets team total Under 106.5
Keon Johnson Under 1.5 threes
Draymond Green Over 5.5 assists
Keon Johnson has knocked down fewer than 1.5 threes in eight of his last 10 games. The Nets' guard is shooting 22.2% from deep over that span and will see reduced minutes now that Thomas is back in the rotation.
With Golden State reverting to a small-ball lineup, Draymond Green is back to logging significant minutes at center. He's responded with an uptick in production and has dropped more than 5.5 dimes in seven of his last eight games.
The Nets have been awful on offense and haven't been much better defensively. They rank 23rd in defensive rating and will struggle to contain Green's playmaking.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Warriors vs Nets odds
Warriors vs Nets live odds
Warriors vs Nets opening odds
- Spread: Golden State -10.5 | Brooklyn +10.5
- Moneyline: Golden State -450 | Brooklyn +350
- Over/Under: Over 223.5 | Under 223.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Warriors vs Nets spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Warriors are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games.
- The Nets are fresh off a 127-113 loss to the Spurs and are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five.
- With the Nets' brutal offense and slow tempo, the Under is 16-5 in their previous 21 contests.
- Nets guard Cam Thomas (24.2 ppg) has played just four games since the start of December. He returned to the lineup last week and scored 24 points two days ago.
Warriors vs Nets trend
The Nets have hit the Under on their team total in 19 of their last 21 games at home (+16.65 Units / 69% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Nets.
How to watch Warriors vs Nets
| Location | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York |
| Date | Thursday, 3-6-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSBA, YES |
Warriors vs Nets latest injuries
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