The second game of Thursday night’s doubleheader features a matchup of two of the best players in the NBA as Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors are set to take on Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets.
The Warriors have hit a rough patch but used some strategic rest to bounce back in their last game. Can they carry that momentum over and cover the spread against a Nuggets team that is playing its best basketball of the season?
Find out in our free NBA betting picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Nuggets on March 10.
Warriors vs Nuggets odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Warriors opened this Western Conference showdown as 2.5-point road chalk and were quickly bet down to -1.5. But Golden State has seen some more money this afternoon as the line has returned to the opening number. Meanwhile, the total hit the board at 224 and for the most part, the Over has been hammered, moving the number up to 228.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Warriors vs Nuggets predictions
Predictions made on 3/10/2022 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Warriors vs Nuggets game info
• Location: Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado
• Date: Thursday, March 10, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Warriors vs Nuggets betting preview
Key injuries
Warriors: Draymond Green PF (Out), James Wiseman C (Out), Otto Porter Jr. SF (Out), Andre Iguodala SG (Out), Gary Payton II PG (Out).
Nuggets: Aaron Gordon PF (Questionable), Will Barton SG (Questionable), Jeff Green F (Questionable), Jamal Murray PG (Out), MIchael Porter Jr. SF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Warriors are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite and the Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last four as an underdog. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Nuggets.
Warriors vs Nuggets picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Warriors enter this matchup still trying to pull themselves out of a nosedive. Golden State is coming off a win over the Clippers on Tuesday but prior to that, they had lost eight of 10 straight up were just 2-9-1 against the spread in their previous 12 games.
It was going so poorly at one point that the Warriors gave basically all their starters the day off in last week’s meeting matchup with the Nuggets in Denver. The Nuggets won that game 131-124 but things are obviously different with Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Andrew Wiggins out of the lineup.
That said, the Warriors have not been the same since Draymond Green got injured back at the beginning of January and their defense has steadily declined ever since. In fact, over the last 10 games, the Warriors rank 22nd in defensive rating. Playing poor defense is not a good thing when going up against the caliber of player like Nikola Jokic.
Jokic is making one hell of a push to repeat as NBA MVP. The Joker is putting up 27.8 points with 14.8 rebounds and 8.7 assists over his last 10 games and has put up 46, 32, and 38 points in each of his last three games.
So, with the way Jokic is playing, it's no surprise the Nuggets have won 10 of their last 11 games. The Nuggets have also picked up their play on defense, ranking fifth in defensive rating over that stretch.
That stretch includes a 117-116 win over the Warriors in San Francisco as 5-point underdogs in a game the Warriors were just unable to contain Jokic.
This number feels a bit like a trap, but with still no Green or James Wiseman, the Warriors just don’t have enough big-man depth to limit Jokic. We’re taking the home dog.
Prediction: Nuggets +2.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
When it comes to the total the Over has been hammered to this point and it’s not hard to see why. The Nuggets' offense is humming, going against a struggling Warriors defense and the Warriors offense that you know can get hot at any time.
As noted, led by Jokic, the Nuggets rank ninth in offensive rating over this 11-game stretch and rank third in scoring putting up 119.4 points per contest. Now, they face a struggling Warriors defense that is giving up 115.6 points per game over that same stretch.
And even though the Nuggets have picked up their play at the defensive end of the floor lately, they are still allowing 111.1 points per game while the Warriors are capable of putting up a big number at any time. And despite their recent struggles have still put up 114.9 points per game over their last 10 games.
It doesn't hurt that both of the previous meetings between these teams would have also gone Over this number.
Prediction: Over 228.5 (+100)
Best bet
As stated before, this game feels a little bit like a trap. But the Warriors have been incredibly inconsistent lately and I’m not entirely convinced they’ve figured anything out with a home win over the Clippers.
On top of that, they just can’t match up well with Jokic at the moment with no Green or Wiseman. Not only is Jokic on a tear right now, in that Feb. 26 meeting the Joker went for 35 points, 17 boards, and eight assists. Bet on Jokic to have another big game and lead the Nuggets to another victory. Meaning the value is on the Nuggets’ moneyline.
Pick: Nuggets moneyline (+118)
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