The Minnesota Timberwolves welcome a weary Golden State Warriors squad to the Target Center for Game 1 just days after the Dubs beat Houston in 7.
I inquire about the individual efforts for this matchup, giving my best Warriors vs. Timberwolves props and NBA picks for this May 6 tilt. For more analysis, look at our full Warriors vs. Timberwolves predictions!
Best Warriors vs Timberwolves props
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Green 02.5 blocks+steals (-105) -
Randle o4.5 FT attempts (-120) - Conley o3.5 assists (+120)
Warriors vs Timberwolves player props for May 6
Draymond Green Over 2.5 blocks+steals (-105 at bet365)
If you’re a fan of trash talk, this series will give you an earful. A good chunk of that smack is coming from Warriors’ canker sore Draymond Green.
He has a long history of being a pest in the playoffs — and a long history with Minnesota center Rudy Gobert — but there’s no denying Draymond’s effectiveness, especially on defense.
Green slowed down the Houston Rockets in Round 1, averaging 1.4 blocks and 1.6 steals for the series. He amassed three or more of those stats in five of the seven games and comes into tonight’s opener pegged for a similar stat line on defense.
Player projections range as high as 1.7 steals and 1.5 blocks from Green. Minnesota did a great job limiting miscues against Los Angeles (only 11.2 turnovers per game), but has been stagnant since sending LeBron & Co. home on April 30.
We’ve already seen teams come out flat after extended layoffs in these playoffs, and the Warriors will still be buzzing with the intensity of a recently won Game 7. Green will lead that charge, getting Over this combo prop.
Julius Randle Over 4.5 free throw attempts (-120 at bet365)
I don’t often wager on weirdo markets like “free throw attempts”, but I see value here with Julius Randle in an intense Game 1.
There’s no love lost between these teams, and both head coaches have been barking at officials about the overtly physical defense in the postseason — most recently Minnesota coach Chris Finch saying it feels like refs are losing control of games.
The referee crew needs to grab this series by the horns early on and nip any greasy play in the bud, which means plenty of whistles and foul shots.
Zach Zarba is the crew chief tonight, and in 80 career games with Minnesota involved, he’s sent the Timberwolves to the stripe an average of 25 times per 48 minutes, second most among all NBA teams.
When it comes to drawing fouls, Randle is among the best on the Wolves’ roster. He went to the line more than six times per game in the regular season, and in the opening round series with the Lakers, he visited the charity stripe seven or more times in three of those five games.
Randle is an X-factor in this series as a 6-foot-9 forward who can play inside and out. He’ll get some advantageous size matchups against a smaller Warriors rotation, and I expect him to attack the interior when the Dubs get a bad switch. That increases the number of opportunities to draw contact and go to the line.
Mike Conley Over 3.5 assists (+120 at bet365)
Mike Conley knows this Warriors team all too well, but should welcome the matchup with a smaller opponent after being undersized against the Lakers’ beefy backcourt.
Minnesota’s veteran point guard logged 22 minutes or less in the first three games of that Round 1 series before playing 25 and 31 minutes in Games 4 and 5.
His assist output was way down against L.A., averaging only 2.6 dimes in 4.0 potential assists per contest. Conley went Under his assist total in four of those games, and his assist prop for tonight’s Game 1 is at 3.5 with the Over playing plus money after an early adjustment toward the Under.
On the year, Conley dished out 4.5 assists on 6.7 potential assists per outing. In his four meetings with Golden State — all of which came before the Jimmy Butler trade — Conley recorded assist totals of three (19 minutes), five (25 minutes), three (25 minutes), and four (27 minutes).
Game 1 models all call for more than four set-ups, with my number coming out to 4.3 dimes tonight. Given that forecast and the swinging in Conley’s assist props, we’re getting good value with Over 3.5 at +120, considering it should carry a price tag around -155.
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