Saturday afternoon brings a rematch of last season’s Sweet 16 matchup when the No. 1 Iowa Hawkeyes meet the No. 5 seed Colorado Buffaloes. The Lady Hawkeyes won last season’s meeting by 10 points and are heavy favorites to advance to the Elite 8 in Women’s March Madness odds.
The Lady Buffaloes are coming off a nice upset victory over Kansas State and will be hungry to avenge last season's heartbreaking loss.
Join me as I break this one down with some free Women’s March Madness picks for Colorado vs. Iowa on Saturday, March 30.
Colorado vs Iowa best odds
 Colorado |
 Iowa |
|
|---|---|---|
| +260 | Moneyline | -325 |
| +7 (-110) | Spread | -7 (-110) |
| Over 157 (-110) | Total | Under 157 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings on March 29, 2024.
Colorado vs Iowa picks and predictions
Saturday’s meeting between the Iowa Hawkeyes and Colorado Buffaloes features two programs with many returnees from last season's Sweet 16 clash, and this one should be a great battle.
The Lady Buffaloes opened their 2023-2024 campaign with an upset victory over then-No. 1 LSU and have strong victories this season over Pac-12 Conference rivals Stanford and USC to their credit.
The Buffaloes' defense and rebounding have fueled their 24 victories this season; they defend the 3-point line and snare defensive rebounds better than most. Colorado turned 22 forced turnovers into 19 points in the Round of 32 victory over the Kansas State Wildcats and held an elite offense to just 50 points in their own building.
Colorado’s defense will be problematic for Caitlin Clark and the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Iowa commits 13.5 turnovers per tilt this season and is coming off giving away the ball 15 times to West Virginia. Clark may have scored 32 points during that win, but she had to work for them. The Mountaineers hounded her into six miscues that kept the game close, but Iowa also shot horribly from downtown. Clark connected on all five of Iowa’s 22 attempts from downtown, and many were wide-open looks.
The much-maligned Hawkeyes' defense will catch a break as the Lady Buffaloes are a scrappy team without an explosive type of player like Clark and instead ride the hot hand. Iowa is also the better rebounding team, boasting the size and experience to prevent the Buffaloes from dominating the glass as they typically do.
Saturday’s rematch of last year's Sweet 16 matchup has all the makings for a tight, low-scoring affair. Expect Colorado to focus its defensive attention on Clark, as the Buffs' above-average defenders will hound, pester, and get physical with the all-time leading scorer. They must keep Iowa in the 70’s for a chance at winning this game, and they likely will.
Iowa isn’t the greatest defensive team, but they have capable perimeter defenders facing a Colorado squad with a few good but inconsistent shooters. I expect a low-scoring war on Saturday and for this game to end Under 157.5 points.
My best bet: Under 157 (-110 at Caesars)
Caitlin Clark Colorado vs Iowa prop pick
Clark is the straw that stirs the drink for Iowa and, as a result, sees double and triple teams regularly. She is the NCAA all-time leading scorer and will get her buckets, but the only way Iowa wins this ballgame is for Clark to drop more than 8.5 dimes. West Virginia found some success defending Clark the old-fashioned way; they got physical with her and if not for her game-high 32 points, Iowa may have lost to the Mountaineers instead of winning by 10 points.
The superstar point guard was setting up her teammates against West Virginia, but the Iowa ladies went a collective 0-8 from downtown on mostly wide-open looks and 9-22 from inside the arc, which were both aberrations for a team that hit at a 38% from beyond the arc during the regular season.
FHawkeyes’ sharpshooters Gabbie Marshall and Kate Martin will bounce back after going a combined 0-5 from downtown and 2-11 from the field. They’ll be the primary recipients of Ponytail Pete’s generosity, which will result in Clark cashing this prop for us.
Caitlin Clark prop pick: Over 8.5 assists (-115 at Caesars)
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Colorado vs Iowa spread and Over/Under analysis
Money came in on Colorado when it opened at +8.5, and after some back and forth, Colorado is available anywhere from +6.5 to +7. Iowa struggling at home in the second round is likely the cause of the movement.
Meanwhile, the total opened at 162.5 before dipping as low as 157 at most online shops. That’s still as many as 26 points more than the lowest Sweet 16 total on the board, so the O/U should descend even further as this number remains too inflated.
Colorado vs Iowa betting trend to know
Clark has exceeded 8.5 assists in 12 of her previous 14 contests. Find more college basketball betting trends for Colorado vs. Iowa.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Colorado vs Iowa game info
| Location: | MVP Arena, Albany, NY |
| Date: | Saturday, March 30, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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