Kansas vs TCU Odds, Picks and Predictions: Miles' Return Gives Edge to Horned Frogs

The TCU Horned Frogs will try to bounce back from their recent struggles when they host the surging Kansas Jayhawks in a Big 12 showdown on Monday night.

The No. 5 Jayhawks (22-5) have won four straight and are now tied for first place in the Big 12. No. 22 TCU (18-9) had lost four straight before getting junior guard Mike Miles Jr. back in the lineup for a 100-75 win over Oklahoma State on Saturday.

Miles and the Horned Frogs will face a tougher test against the Jayhawks. We’ll break down what to expect in our free college basketball picks and predictions for Kansas vs. TCU on February 20. 

Kansas vs TCU best odds

Kansas vs TCU picks and predictions

This has been a tale of two seasons for the TCU Horned Frogs. When Miles has been in the lineup, the Horned Frogs have gone 16-4, with wins over the Baylor Bears, Iowa Hawkeyes, and Kansas. Without him, TCU is just 2-5 and struggled to find its footing in the difficult Big 12 schedule.

TCU coach Jamie Dixon wanted to take his time bringing Miles back after his knee injury. The Horned Frogs were in an excellent position to make the NCAA tournament even if they struggled down the stretch and it wasn’t worth potentially reaggravating the injury. However, with just four games left in the regular season, it’s time for TCU to make a postseason push with Miles leading the charge.

The Kansas Jayhawks are familiar with just how different TCU can be with Miles in the lineup. In the first meeting between these teams last month, the Horned Frogs blew out the Jayhawks 83-60 in Kansas. It was Kansas’ worst home loss in two years, and Miles played a key part. The junior scored 15 points, pulled down four rebounds, and dished out four assists in perhaps TCU’s best win of the season.

Advanced metrics don’t generally separate out games lost to injury, so it isn’t easy to quantify exactly how much better TCU is with Miles in the lineup. However, we know it’s not easy for the Horned Frogs to replace his 17.9 points per game or his solid perimeter presence on the defensive end. 

Even just looking at averages of the whole season, however, TCU rates out as a similar team to Kansas. The Jayhawks score a half-point more per game (77 vs. 76.5 ppg), while the Horned Frogs give up just 67.3 points a night, one less than Kansas (68.3 ppg). Both teams play at a similar tempo, moving fast but not at the pace of Alabama or other run-and-gun squads.

If you consider some of the popular rating systems out there, Kansas looks like the superior squad. KenPom has the Jayhawks as approximately five points better than TCU, for instance. 

But again, those numbers factor in the games in which TCU played without Miles when it looked lost and mediocre. This is not the same team that lost by double digits to Iowa State, Baylor, and Kansas State while also dropping a game at Oklahoma State. This is the team that beat Kansas by 23 on the road, and tonight, it gets to play that same team at home.

With a full squad and home-court advantage, TCU should reassert itself as an elite team tonight. I’m taking the Horned Frogs and laying the 1.5-point spread. 

My best bet: TCU -1.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Kansas vs TCU spread analysis

Tonight’s spread opened at TCU -1.5. There’s been some movement back and forth throughout the day, but as of noon on Monday, we’re back at Kansas +1.5 as the consensus spread.

Both teams have played around .500 vs. the spread this year. The Jayhawks are 13-14 ATS on the season, while the Horned Frogs are 14-12-1 ATS. 

Most of my analysis on the spread market can be found above. I do think it’s worth noting that without Miles on the court — including the game against Mississippi State in which he played just four minutes before his injury — the Horned Frogs went just 1-5 ATS as sportsbooks struggled to price in the loss of the TCU star.

They might also be slow to rebound now that he’s back, as TCU covered by 19 points against Oklahoma State on Saturday.

We shouldn’t underestimate Kansas, and there’s no reason to expect that the Horned Frogs will score another blowout win at home, but given how easily they handled the Jayhawks on the road and the fact that the spread is negligible, I can’t see a reason to pick against them at home. The smart play here is TCU minus the points.

Kansas vs TCU Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under for tonight’s game opened at 150.5. There’s been a slight push upwards since then, and the consensus total now sits at 151.5 points.

Both teams have played to the Over this year. The Over is 16-11 in Jayhawks games this season, and 15-12 with TCU on the court. 

However, it’s worth noting that these two teams hit the Under at a lower number when they first met up a month ago. The two teams combined for just 143 points, going below the 146.5 total on that night.

That said, both teams have some trends that make the Over look good tonight. the Jayhawks have hit the Over in five of their last seven, with four of those games going over 155 points.

TCU had hit the Under three straight times without Miles in the lineup but went way above the total in its 100-75 win over Oklahoma State on Saturday in Miles’ return.

The more you look at how these teams have been playing in recent weeks, the only thing that points to the Under is the first game between them. I don’t want to put too much stock into one game that wasn’t that far off of tonight’s total, so I’m taking the Over.

Kansas vs TCU betting trend to know

TCU is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 home games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Kansas vs. TCU.

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