The Kansas Jayhawks continue to build their case for a No. 1 seed come March and have a Big 12 showdown with the West Virginia Mountaineers on Saturday night.
Although West Virginia may seem weak by just glancing at its record, its net rating is respectable and a victory for Kansas would qualify as a Quadrant 1 win and provide a huge boost to its resume. Can Bill Self and the Jayhawks continue to build on their national championship aspirations or will Bob Huggins and the Mountaineers player spoiler?
Continue reading for more free college basketball picks and predictions for Kansas vs. West Virginia on February 19th.
Kansas vs West Virginia odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Kansas opened as 5.5-point favorites and has moved slightly down to -5. The total opened at 146 and has bounced around a bit, but currently sits back at 146.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Kansas vs West Virginia predictions
Predictions made on 2/19/2022 at 12:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Kansas vs West Virginia game info
• Location: WVU Coliseum, Morgantown, WV
• Date: Saturday, February 19, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Kansas at West Virginia betting preview
Injuries
Kansas: Jalen Coleman-Lands G (Probable), Remy Martin G (Out).
West Virginia: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
West Virginia has played 12-2 to the Over in its last 14 games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Kansas vs. West Virginia.
Kansas vs West Virginia picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
After starting 13-2, West Virginia has lost nine of its last ten and sits at 14-11. Four of those nine losses were by double digits (and two by 20+), with another two losses narrowly missing that mark as nine-point losses. The most apparent problem has been the Mountaineers’ defense, allowing an average of 76.6 points per game. Those deficiencies are a bit staggering considering they had given up 60+ points in just four of their first 15 games. Within context, however, it may be explainable.
After several years of usage, Bob Huggins' patented 1-3-1 trap defense may be a bit more effective against non-conference opponents than Big 12 opponents they play twice every year. In conference play alone, the Mountaineers rank Bottom 3 in field goal attempts allowed, three-point percentage, free throw attempts, and total rebounding. That either screams a lack of discipline to execute the scheme or just an outdated and solved philosophy. It's certainly not a lack of experience: of the nine players that have played 250+ minutes, seven are seniors.
Defensive struggles aren't the type of adversity a team wants to be facing when the Jayhawks are coming to town. Kansas' offense has always been great, but it has hit another gear in the last month. Since the last time these two teams faced off on January 15th, Kansas has averaged 75.9 points per game and has turned in a sub-70 point performance just once in conference games. Star guards Ochai Agbaji (19.9 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Christian Braun (15.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG) lead a Kansas offense that ranks third in KenPom offense, contributing heavily to the team's Big 12-topping marks in field goal percentage and rebounding.
The college basketball betting market is largely a conglomeration of various efficiency metric sources whether it's KenPom, Torvik, EvanMiya, or the like. In that respect, West Virginia's defense ranks 37th, 33rd, and 49th respectively by those three. It's hard to look at West Virginia's body of work and suggest its defense is anywhere near as good as those rankings suggest. And if their defense is much poorer than those market-driving metrics suggest, then the value can only lie on one side.
Prediction: Kansas -5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
That same principle can be applied to West Virginia's totals. Again, if the metrics that shape the market are vastly overrating the Mountaineers' defense, then their performance in respect to totals should reflect that — and it does. After playing 11-3 to the Under to start the season, West Virginia has now played 12-2 to the Over since.
What's likely going on here is that West Virginia's stellar defensive performances against opposing non-conference offenses (again, offenses that have never seen the 1-3-1 trap defense) are heavily anchoring their defensive standing in advanced metrics. So even with poor performance after poor performance in conference play against coaches and offenses that have seen the defense for years now, West Virginia as a whole can only be dropped in those metrics so much.
Today's total of 146 is admittedly high compared to the totals West Virginia has seen this year. It’s seen just one total higher (150 vs Eastern Kentucky) and the next-highest total is a whole three points below tonight's mark. Kansas is a bit more familiar with higher totals, having totals of 145+ six times this season, playing to the Over four times.
Prediction: Over 146 (-110)
Best bet
Tonight's Big 12 matchup between the Jayhawks and Mountaineers is simply a mismatch by multiple magnitudes, and is arguably a perfect storm for bettors. Kansas is a Top-3 offense playing a defense that is overrated by advanced metrics. Bill Self has taken it to Bob Huggins as of late as well. Since the 2017-2018 season the Jayhawks are 9-2 and have won by an average of 12.3 points. Their lowest margin of victory was by five during that time.
Advanced metrics and data-driven processes are great and advance our understanding of sports, but they are not without flaws. West Virginia profiles as a potential blind spot for that approach given how their defense has massively diminishing margins against opponents in the back half of their schedule, as opposed to the unsuspecting non-conference opponents they start the season against.
There of course is always the possibility that we are late to the party and we're trying to catch the market at the time it has caught on, but the opportunity, as it has been laid out, is too good to pass on.
Pick: Kansas -5 (-110)
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