March Madness Upset Predictions: Tigers Earn Their Stripes

The NCAA Tournament field is set, the March Madness odds are set and we’re ready to start the Madness. And we’re ready to make some money, too.

Personally, as a former Florida Atlantic Owl whose roots in sports media go back to that era, I’ve been waiting for this day for 21 years. 

FAU was unable to get fitted for the Cinderella’s slipper in 2002, buts its squad is one to watch this year. Is it primed for another run of March Madness upsets, like Butler, George Mason, VCU, and, of course, St. Peter’s in recent seasons.

Let’s take a look at this year’s Round 1 upset and Cinderella college basketball picks as we get set for the NCAA Tournament.

And if you want a full roster of our March Madness picks, we've got you covered there, too! 

March Madness 2023 upset predictions

• Round 1 upset: Oral Roberts
• Round 1 upset: NC State
• Round 1 upset: Kent State
• Cinderella: Memphis
• Cinderella: Miami

Click on each team to see full analysis.

March Madness Round 1 upsets

No. 12 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles over No. 5 Duke Blue Devils

The Oral Roberts Golden Eagles are back after, similar to those teams above, making a name for themselves by joining NCAA Tournament lore.

ORU was not just the Tulsa king in 2021, but it was the king of upsets as a 15-seed. The Golden Eagles knocked off 2-seed Ohio State in overtime, but they weren’t done yet. ORU upended 7-seed Florida to make the Sweet Sixteen, before bowing out against Arkansas by two points. 

If you remember back to 2021, Max Abmas and Kevin Obanor were a tremendous one-two punch. Obanor has moved on, but Abmas is ready to run it back and make life miserable for someone. The Duke Blue Devils stand in the way, a team that is making its way into the Big Dance for the first time without Coach Mike Krzyzewski patrolling the sidelines.

Abmas went for 22.3 PPG with 4.4 RPG, 3.7 APG and 1.2 SPG in the regular season, while hitting 44.5% from the field, and 91.4% from the free-throw stripe. He doesn’t do it alone, however, Connor Vanover and Isaac McBride are tremendous complementary options. ORU was third in the nation this season with 84.1 PPG, and Duke is definitely on notice.

No. 11 NC State Wolfpack over No. 5 Creighton Bluejays

There are a lot of questions about how NC State made it, while Clemson was snubbed despite three wins over the Wolfpack this season. NC State is about to show everybody why it’s in the NCAA Tournament, and is about to make some noise.

The Wolfpack are deep, and can hit teams multiple ways. Jarkel Joiner and Terquavion Smith each were tied for the team lead in the regular season with 17.3 PPG. Joiner also went for 4.8 RPG and 3.7 APG in the regular season, while hitting 43.6% from the field. He’s dependable at the charity stripe, hitting 85.2%, which is helpful down the stretch in a close game.

D.J. Burns Jr. is good for 13.1 PPG and 5.1 RPG, while shooting a very accurate 56.8% from the floor. And while Burns is hitting from the inside, it’s all about Casey Morsell from the perimeter. He’s averaging 12.2 PPG, while cashing in on threes at a 41.7% clip. If Morsell is hitting from downtown on a consistent basis, this team is difficult to beat.

Creighton is prime for the plucking, too. The Bluejays have dropped three of the past six games overall, including double-digit losses to Villanova on Feb. 25 in the regular season, while getting drummed by 22 by Xavier in the Big East Tournament. The Wolfpack is about to add to their woes, sending the Bluejays flying back to Omaha.

No. 14 Kent State Golden Flashes over No. 3 Indiana Hoosiers

If you can wait until the very final tip on Friday night, Kent State gets the NCAA Tournament underway against Indiana. And if recent seasons are any indication, it’s going to be a rocky road for the Big Ten in the Big Dance.

Kent State is a dangerous team for Trayce Jackson-Davis and the Indiana Hoosiers, as the Golden Flashes roll in on six straight wins, three consecutive covers, and a MAC Tournament title.

The Golden Flashes have managed a win over tournament team Northern Kentucky, while playing Gonzaga and Houston very tough. In fact, the Golden Flashes lost by single digits against the Bulldogs and Cougars, easily grabbing covers as a double-digit favorite in each matchup.

Kent State is a handful, going for 76.0 PPG, while playing a tremendous brand of lockdown defense. Sincere Carry went for a team-best 17.4 PPG with 4.9 APG and 3.7 RPG, while hitting 80.1% from the free-throw line. He isn’t quite a star like Jackson-Davis, but he can nullify his heroics somewhat.

The defense will do the rest, as Kent State limited the opposition to just 65.4 PPG, while holding teams to a 40.1% field-goal percentage and 31.1% 3-point percentage. That doesn’t bode well for Indiana, as this Kent State team held Houston to just 49 points, and Gonzaga to a reasonable 73 points. The Flashes won’t be fazed by the big lights.

Oddly enough, if you’ll indulge me again for a moment, Kent State was at the Tournament in 2002 in the same pod with FAU. Antonio Gates, the former NFL tight end, helped KSU roll to upsets over Oklahoma State and Alabama in Greenville, while topping Pitt in the Sweet Sixteen before eventually falling to, ironically, Indiana in the Elite Eight. A similar run is certainly possible this year.

March Madness Cinderella picks

No. 8 Memphis Tigers — East Region

I mentioned FAU’s 21-year to get back to the NCAA Tournament. Unfortunately, the Owls match up with the Memphis Tigers, a team playing tremendous basketball at the moment.

Oddly enough, in FAU’s first-ever bowl game in New Orleans, the Owls matched up with the Tigers. I think Memphis gets revenge in the first round, and that isn’t all Memphis is going to do.

Memphis has the tools to beat up a vulnerable 1-seed Purdue team, and I think if Oral Roberts does, in fact, beat Duke, that the Golden Eagles could take down the winner of Louisiana-Tennessee, too. Another Sweet Sixteen trip for ORU would not be surprising in the least. As such, Memphis would sail into the Elite Eight. The East Region is going to be the bracket your co-workers are complaining about busting them out of the pool.

The Tigers rolled to the AAC Tournament title, pounding Tulane by 40 in the semifinals, while topping a Marcus Sasser-less Houston in the final. Still, a win is a win, and the Tigers are playing with tremendous confidence. 

Memphis covered all three games against Houston this season, and it swept fellow AAC NCAA Tournament team Cincinnati, while also scoring wins over Auburn, Texas A&M, and VCU. The Tigers were way underseeded at No. 8, and Memphis definitely will prove the committee wrong in a big way.

Odds to make Elite Eight: +900 at bet365

Round 1 matchup: No. 9 FAU Owls

No. 5 Miami Hurricanes — Midwest Region

It might be a bit of a stretch to call the ACC regular-season champion a Cinderella, per se, but the Hurricanes are seeded No. 5. 

Is the U back? Maybe not on the football field, but definitely on the hardwood. In fact, it made a run to the Elite Eight last season as a 10-seed, and Miami will run it back this season. NCAA Tournament wins are no longer shocking, but they’re expected down south.

The Canes match up with Drake in the first round, and Miami doesn’t have time for that 12-5 upset nonsense people filling out brackets like to flap their gums about. In fact, Drake is going to be in their feelings, falling back, laughing now and crying later after the first round. It’s just God’s plan. OK, I’ll stop now. If you know, you know.

Miami will then meet Indiana or Kent State in the second round, and I am not worried about either of those teams weathering the storm against the Hurricanes.

Houston would be up next in the Sweet Sixteen, most likely, and if Sasser isn’t ready to go, that’s not going to end well for the Cougars. Of course, this potential hinges on if Norchad Omier is healthy enough to go for the Canes, as he is dealing with an ankle injury right now. If he is good, without any setbacks, Miami is going to be dangerous.

The Hurricanes have recorded wins over Duke, NC State, Pitt, and Virginia to strengthen the resume this season, while also topping NCAA Tournament team Providence. The Canes boast ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong, too, and the Hurricanes are primed to make another deep run into March.

Odds to make Elite Eight: +700 at bet365

Round 1 matchup: No. 12 Drake Bulldogs

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