The St. Bonaventure Bonnies and Virginia Cavaliers would both love to be in the NCAA Tournament right now, but neither has given up on their quest for an NIT Championship.
St. Bonaventure will take on Virginia in the Quarterfinals of the NIT after both teams ended up winning close games to advance in their previous outings.
Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for the quarterfinal matchup between St. Bonaventure and Virginia.
St. Bonaventure vs Virginia odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Virginia opened as a -3.5 favorite but can now be found at -3 at some outlets. The total, on the other hand, has increased from 125 at opening to 125.5 across the board.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
St. Bonaventure vs Virginia predictions
- Prediction: St. Bonaventure +3.5 (-110)
- Prediction: Under 125.5 (-110)
- Best bet: St. Bonaventure +3.5 (-110)
Predictions made on 3/22/2022 at 7:55 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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St. Bonaventure vs Virginia game info
• Location: John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, VA
• Date: Tuesday, March 22, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
St. Bonaventure vs Virginia betting preview
Injuries
St. Bonaventure: Linton Brown G (Out), Anouar Mellouk F (Out).
Virginia: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more NCAA betting trends for St. Bonaventure vs. Virginia.
St. Bonaventure vs Virginia picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The St. Bonaventure Bonnies were a balanced team this year with so much potential. Unfortunately for the Bonnies, they couldn’t win the A-10 Tournament and therefore were relegated into the NIT.
Still, the Bonnies have 22 wins and could finish with more.
St. Bonaventure shot just 32.2% from deep but was able to knock down 51.1% from inside the arc this season. From the foul line, the Bonnies hit 74.5% but didn’t get to the charity stripe at a high rate at all.
However, what helped this offense the most was that St. Bonaventure only turned the ball over 15.8% of the time. This allows St. Bonaventure to get many looks while still preventing opponents from leaking out in transition.
Virginia’s defense will rarely foul and teams are shooting 33.9% from deep and 48% from inside against the Cavaliers this season. Virginia hasn’t been all that effective on the defensive end, however, allowing 29% of offensive rebounds. Meanwhile, St. Bonaventure is only earning 27.1% of offensive rebounds, so you can expect about a quarter of potential rebounding opportunities on the offensive end to be won by the Bonnies.
On the other hand, Virginia won’t turn the ball over much, giving the ball away just 16.1% of the time. Virginia isn’t all that great from the field either, hitting just 32.5% from long range and 50.4% from inside the arc. However, the Cavaliers won’t get to the foul line all that often either but, like St. Bonaventure, Virginia is above average from the line, shooting 73%.
This season, the Bonnies are allowing opponents to shoot 34.4% from deep and 49.2% from inside the arc. The 3-point percentage is a bit high, but Virginia will rarely shoot from long distance anyway. Inside the arc, the Bonnies have some long bodies that can block shots or at least change them around the rim.
That’s why I’ll side with St. Bonaventure +3.5, on the road.
Prediction: St. Bonaventure +3.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The total of this game is low, sitting at 125.5. However, it makes sense. Both teams will rarely get to the line and neither team shoots 3-pointers all that consistently either.
Plus, when these two teams do shoot threes, both are below-average. Inside, Virginia and St. Bonaventure block a large number of shots per game and neither team is all that great at getting second-chance opportunities.
These teams would rather shoot, miss, and get back on the defensive end. Give me the Under 125.5 here.
Prediction: Under 125.5 (-110)
Best bet
Both of these teams are well-balanced. St. Bonaventure, analytically, has the better offense, shooting the ball better in comparison to Virginia.
On the other hand, Virginia’s the better defense, holding teams to a 49.1% effective field goal percentage.
While the Bonnies’ defense lacks on the perimeter, that’s not going to matter nearly as much going up against Virginia, a team that shoots threes at one of the lowest rates in college basketball this season.
Despite St. Bonaventure playing on the road, I like the Bonnies to at least cover the two-possession spread.
Pick: St. Bonaventure +3.5 (-110)
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