TCU vs Texas Odds, Picks and Predictions: Points at a Premium in Big 12 Rivalry

Two of the top teams in the Big 12 will face off on Wednesday night when the No. 17 TCU Horned Frogs visit the No. 10 Texas Longhorns in Austin.

Both teams are coming into this game with 13-2 records and 2-1 marks in conference play. While they’re both known for their high-scoring offenses, TCU and Texas have also shown off their ability to shut down opponents in recent games as well. 

Many fans are expecting a shootout in Texas, but this could be a hard-nosed conference showdown between these in-state rivals. We’ll break it all down in our free college basketball picks and predictions for TCU vs. Texas on January 11.

TCU vs Texas best odds

TCU vs Texas picks and predictions

The Longhorns have one of the most efficient offenses in all of college basketball, while the Horned Frogs lead the nation in transition scoring. Both teams are riding trends that have seen them hit the Over in nearly all of their recent games.

But with sportsbooks posting an Over/Under as high as 143.5 at the time of this writing, I’m bucking those trends and picking the Under tonight.

That might seem like a wild pick, considering Texas puts up 82.3 points per game, while TCU scored 78 points a night. However, while these schools have impressed pundits with their offensive prowess, both teams have proven that they can play defense as well. We could actually be in for a gritty slugfest on Wednesday night.

Kansas State embarrassed Texas last week, putting up 116 points to beat the Longhorns. That led to some soul-searching in Austin, and the response to an all-defense practice on Thursday was a smothering shutdown of Oklahoma State in a 56-46 win on Saturday. 

While we’re definitely not going to see that low of a score on Wednesday, Texas has played below tonight’s total against several of its toughest opponents this year. It beat the Oklahoma Sooners 70-69 on New Year’s Eve and scored a 72-62 home win against the Stanford Cardinal earlier in December.

TCU has also shown a penchant for playing in tough, lower-scoring games when it needs to. The Horned Frogs are coming off a 69-67 loss to Iowa State and have played under tonight’s total in wins over Texas Tech, Providence, and Cal. 

Yes, both of these teams have also played plenty of games where they’ve run up and down the court and blown through the total, but that’s unlikely to happen in a conference matchup between two teams that boast Top-100 defenses.

There’s a reason that bettors have already taken the total down a couple of points as of noon on Wednesday. I expect tonight’s game to be a showcase of how Texas and TCU can play defense in an important matchup and not one where the two programs pad their offensive stats.

I’m betting the Under and would continue to do so unless the total dropped to 140. 

My best bet: Under 143.5 (-109 at BetRivers)

TCU vs Texas spread analysis

The Longhorns opened as a 6.5-point home favorite over the Horned Frogs. As of noon on Wednesday, that line is holding steady, and Texas -6.5 is still the consensus spread. 

TCU has been the better team against the spread this year, putting up an 8-6-1 ATS record on the season, while Texas is 6-9 ATS.

The Longhorns have been tough at home this year, going 9-1 in Austin. The one loss was the aforementioned embarrassment against Kansas State last week when the Wildcats beat Texas 116-103. Outside of that, Texas has some impressive home wins, including an earlier 93-74 win over Gonzaga. 

TCU has struggled a bit in Big 12 play, despite jumping out to a 2-1 record in the conference. While a two-point loss at home to Iowa State isn’t a problem in what was a tossup game, the fact that the Horned Frogs only beat Texas Tech by six at home and defeated Baylor by just one point on the road makes me question how they'll perform in upcoming conference tests.

I expect Texas to come away with a home win tonight, but the question is whether the Longhorns can cover the spread. I think the number is about right, which has me laying off the spread tonight.

TCU vs Texas Over/Under analysis

The total on tonight’s game opened at 145.5, and bettors have taken the O/U down to 143.5 at most books.

I’ve already broken down why I’m on the Under, but I’d like to take a closer look at these two defenses. Texas is allowing just 65.1 points per game, a number that has been inflated slightly because of that dreadful performance against Kansas State. Meanwhile, TCU is giving up just 63.5 points per game. In a conference rivalry matchup, I expect both teams to focus on holding their opponents to similar numbers tonight. 

With a total of 143.5, these teams would probably need to find some success from behind the arc to hit the Over. However, TCU is one of the worst teams in the country from 3-point range, hitting just 29.7% of its shots from deep. Texas isn’t that much better at 34%, and the Horned Frogs play excellent perimeter defense, holding opponents to 29.9% on three-point tries. 

All of these factors point to a lower-scoring game than most pundits seem to expect tonight. I’m confident in betting the Under, especially at the current total of 143.5. 

TCU vs Texas betting trend to know

The Under is 12-5 in the Longhorns' last 17 games against teams with winning records. Find more College basketball betting trends for TCU vs. TCU State.

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