The Army Black Knights will try to keep their undefeated season — and their College Football Playoff hopes — alive on Saturday as they visit the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Saturday night.
Both teams will play to their strengths on offense, and that shows in my Army vs Notre Dame prop picks below.
Army vs Notre Dame props for Week 13
Bryson Daily Over 88.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Riley Leonard Over 199.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)- Beaux Collins anytime TD (+250 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 11-23.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Army vs Notre Dame college football player props
Prop bet #1: Bryson Daily Over 88.5 rushing yards
As I said in my preview of the early lines for this game, I don’t expect Army to be able to hang with Notre Dame for 60 minutes... but it shouldn’t get blown out. If the Black Knights have any chance to pull off an upset, it'll be thanks to the play of quarterback Bryson Daily.
Daily won’t be winning the game with his arm. While the Black Knights have been extremely efficient in the passing game, that’s only due to the surprise factor when they actually take to the air, as they average only 7.7 passing attempts per game.
Instead, Daily is absolutely deadly in the trenches. He's run for 21 touchdowns and 1,062 yards on the year, leading Army in both categories. More generally, the Black Knights are a force to be reckoned with in the ground game, averaging 6.2 yards per attempt.
Notre Dame’s defense has been elite against the pass but merely very good against the ground game, further incentivizing the Army to focus on its most reliable ball carriers.
Daily has run for 110+ yards in each of his last seven games and will almost certainly be asked to carry the offense again vs. Notre Dame. While the Irish are better than the average defense Army has faced this year, Daily will still get his fair share of yards on the ground.
Prop bet #2: Riley Leonard Over 199.5 passing yards
Army is all about the ground game, and that carries over to the defensive side of the ball. The Black Knights have held opponents to just 3.2 yards per carry this season, with most opponents not even trying to run the ball much against them.
And while Notre Dame has been extremely efficient in its rushing attack — averaging six yards per carry — there doesn’t seem to be any reason to run itself into a brick wall on Saturday.
Instead, the Fighting Irish should look to quarterback Riley Leonard to put the ball in the air and take advantage of the superior talent and athleticism Notre Dame enjoys in the passing game compared to the Army secondary.
The Black Knights allow opponents to complete 63.6% of their passes, and while those have been mostly short completions this year, that’s a dangerous game to play against a Notre Dame team that can win one-on-one matchups against Army.
Leonard has thrown for over 200 yards in four of his last five games. Notre Dame isn’t primarily a passing offense by any means, but it has become clear that they trust Leonard to air the ball out a bit and that they want some level of balance in their attack.
Since this will certainly be the best way to beat Army for big plays, I expect Leonard to go Over his 199.5-yard passing prop in this matchup.
Prop bet #3: Beaux Collins anytime touchdown
Notre Dame’s obvious touchdown targets are Leonard and running back Jeremiyah Love, who have combined to score 26 touchdowns so far.
But with the Fighting Irish doing a bit more in the passing game as of late and the Army generally shutting down the running game, I think we’re better off looking for a receiver to score on Saturday rather than taking the paltry payouts available on Notre Dame’s main runners.
That has me looking at Beaux Collins, who leads the Irish both in receptions (30) and yardage (390). Collins also shares the lead for the most receiving touchdowns on the team, though that merely means he’s one of four players with two touchdown receptions in 2024.
But Collins may be the best deep threat on the Irish, having three catches of 37+ yards already on the season. He’ll be one of the biggest challenges for Army’s secondary, which will be hard pressed to contain the multitude of reasonable options Leonard has in the passing game — any one of which is more talented than almost anyone else the Black Knights have tried to defend this year.
This pick comes down to the payout on offer. Collins is Leonard’s favorite target and will be able to get open against an Army team that simply isn’t accustomed to covering good receivers on legitimately talented FBS rosters. There’s no guarantee Collins finds the endzone, but at +250, this is a bet I can’t pass up.
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