Week 12 of the college football season has arrived, and it’s time to hit the player prop market to find the best plays on the board.
Which quarterbacks stand to benefit from soft matchups against Wake Forest and West Virginia? How about New Mexico and its inability to stop the rush?
Best college football player for Week 12
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Criswell 233+ passing yards (-115 at DraftKings) 
Parker 55+ rushing yards (-120 at DraftKings)-
Robertson Over 229.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made on 11-15 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
College football player props for Week 12
Prop bet #1: Jacolby Criswell 233+ passing yards
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have been so bad in the secondary and are a must-fade team weekly with opposing quarterback props.
Dave Clawson’s team is allowing a whopping 298.6 passing yards per game, and the advanced metrics are even worse. The Deacons are 123rd in EPA per pass and 133rd in passing success rate.
Wake has been without two starting cornerbacks — Capone Blue and Jamare Glasker — for three weeks. Blue won’t be back anytime soon as he’s been forced to medically return, while Glasker is questionable with an ankle injury.
Jacolby Criswell of the North Carolina Tar Heels is next up on the fade trade of this Wake secondary. His passing yardage prop has risen from 226 to 233, and for good reason — all eight FBS teams to play this defense have thrown for at least 238 yards.
Criswell is averaging 282.8 passing yards in his six games as the full-time starter, so I’m jumping at this line.
Prop bet #2: Wayshawn Parker 55+ rushing yards
Speaking of defenses that are ripe to fade, the New Mexico Lobos are allowing 38.3 ppg and rank 125th in EPA per play and 127th in success rate. They’re a perfect team to target player props against as they operate at a fast pace offensively (23rd in plays per minute) — meaning both efficiency and opportunity will be there.
The No. 19 Washington State Cougars are averaging 39.3 ppg on offense, so naturally, there are expected to be fireworks in this matchup. The books have set the total at 72.
Cougars freshman running back Wayshawn Parker is coming off a successful game in which he took 11 carries for 149 yards and two scores against a bad Utah State defense. He stands a good chance of having another successful day against an overmatched stop unit.
Parker has been a revelation, earning an 80.7 PFF rush grade while averaging 3.54 yards after contact per attempt. He’s been equally adept at running through defenders (31 missed tackles forced on just 102 attempts) or running around them to earn chunk plays (54.3% breakaway percentage), making him a threat any time he touches the ball.
New Mexico has given up a whopping 2,281 rushing yards and 26 rushing touchdowns this season. There’s bad, and then there’s the Lobos, who rank 111th in EPA per rush, 126th in rushing success rate, and 126th in PFF’s rush defense grade.
Prop bet #3: Sawyer Robertson Over 229.5 passing yards
The Baylor Bears are experiencing some much-needed positives this season under Dave Aranda, already earning two more wins (5) than a season ago and needing just one more victory to earn bowl eligibility.
A big part of the turnaround is due to first-year offensive coordinator Jake Spavital, who installed an uptempo scheme that has the Bears ranking ninth in plays per minute (2.54). It’s led to 33.6 ppg and 419.3 total yards of offense per game on a healthy 6.3 yards per play.
Another big factor in the turnaround has been the play of quarterback Sawyer Robertson, who was inserted into the starting lineup after the first few weeks of the season and has been tremendous. The 6-foot-4 dual-threat is averaging 7.9 yards per attempt and has earned a 77.0 passing grade per PFF, which ranks fifth among Big 12 signal callers.
The Lubbock native’s passing yardage prop currently sits at 229.5 yards — a number he’s gone Over in five of his last six games. With a soft matchup against the West Virginia Mountaineers, I’m playing the Over.
West Virginia has a pass funnel defense, routinely getting torched through the air (132nd in EPA per pass, 122nd in passing success rate, 132nd in passing explosiveness). The Mountaineers are a quality unit against the run (17th in both EPA per rush and rushing success rate) thanks to a tough defensive front (22nd in line yards, 12th in power success rate).
The easiest path down the field has been through the air, and opponents recognize that. Seven of their nine opponents have thrown for 235+ yards. It’s clear to see why teams have taken that approach, as West Virginia is the second-worst graded coverage team (46.0) per PFF.
NCAAF odds Week 12
Here are the full NCAAF odds for all of today’s matchups.
Not intended for use in MA.
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