College football betting returns with another beautiful full slate for Week 5.
We’re turning our attention away from game lines and isolating three college football player prop picks that stand out as great bets this weekend — targeting Indiana’s Elijah Sarratt, Louisville’s Ja’Corey Brooks, and TCU’s Jack Bech.
Read on to see which props I’m backing with my college football picks for Saturday, September 28.
College football props for Week 5
- Elijah Sarratt Over 52.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
- Ja’Corey Brooks Over 71.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
- Jack Bech 76+ receiving yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made on 9-27. Read full analysis of each pick.
College football player props this week
Prop bet #1: Elijah Sarratt Over 52.5 receiving yards
Best odds: (-114 at FanDuel)
The Indiana Hoosiers have been a machine under first-year coach Curt Cignetti, going 4-0 with an average winning margin of over 40 points per game. The offense is clicking, averaging 50.5 ppg and 513.8 total yards per game on 7.8 yards per play.
Quarterback Kurtis Rourke, an Ohio transfer, has completed 75.5% of his passes for 10.8 yards per attempt while averaging 253.3 yards per game. He hasn’t needed to lock in on a go-to target given the blowout of all four wins, but James Madison transfer Elijah Sarratt has been a name to know.
Sarratt has been the biggest constant in the receiving room, playing 31 more pass snaps than any other wideout. He leads the team in targets (22) and receiving yards (250) while averaging a healthy 2.75 yards per route run.
Week 5’s matchup is supposed to be more competitive, and I expect Sarratt to thrive in that game environment. Indiana hosts the Maryland Terrapins with the home side listed as a seven-point favorite at BetMGM.
The Terrapins suffered a lot of turnover in the secondary for a second straight season, and they haven’t faced many difficult passing offenses to make them pay yet; their time is likely coming. An otherwise struggling Michigan State offense threw for 363 yards against them while their true freshman wide receiver exploded for 194 yards and a score, which is hardly an encouraging sign for Maryland supporters.
The Hoosiers are second nationally in both EPA per pass and passing success rate. Maryland has struggled to rush the passer (114th in front-seven havoc) or stick to opposing receivers (97th in PFF’s coverage grade), qualifying this as a plus matchup for Sarratt and company.
Prop bet #2: Ja’Corey Brooks Over 71.5 receiving yards
Best odds: (-114 at FanDuel)
Ja’Corey Brooks easily cashed his receiving yards prop last week in this column, and we’re going right back to the well in Week 5 at a similar number.
Louisville Cardinals offensive coordinator Brian Brohm’s offense nearly always produces a mega-productive WR1. He’s had a pass catcher top 1,000 yards in five of the last six seasons, with the lone exception coming a year ago when Jamari Thrash notched 858 yards despite being injured for much of the season.
Alabama transfer Ja’Corey Brooks is the heir apparent to the WR1 throne, leading the Cards in targets (20), receptions (17), receiving yards (297), and yards per route run (4.18). His numbers aren’t the only impressive thing about his game as he certainly passes the eye test, looking like an explosive and reliable target who appears to be his team’s best offensive weapon.
There’s reason to fear this matchup as the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have a salty defense surrendering just 9.8 ppg and featuring star cornerback Benjamin Morrison. That being said, I won’t let the matchup scare me away from the fact that the books have severely mispriced the props for Brohm’s WR1, so I’m going to try to take advantage as often as possible before the lines move.
Louisville has been a wagon offensively, ranking eighth in EPA per play and fifth in success rate.
The Cards have been terrific in pass protection (11th in front-seven havoc, 17th in PFF’s pass-blocking metric) and Notre Dame recently lost its top edge rusher, Jordan Botelho, for the year. This should give veteran quarterback Tyler Shough time in the pocket to operate an aerial assault that ranks seventh in EPA per pass and sixth in passing success rate.
Prop bet #3: Jack Bech 76+ receiving yards
Best odds: (-110 at DraftKings)
Jack Bech has been a star for the TCU Horned Frogs, emerging as the top receiving option for a dangerous passing attack that likes to air it out and play with tempo. That makes him an appealing player to target in the prop market, especially while his props remain in playable territory and haven’t been inflated to high heaven.
There are a lot of names to know in the TCU receiving room, but Bech is the only one of them essentially playing a full-time role every week. He’s played 42 more pass snaps than any other wideout while leading the team in targets (33), receiving yards (513), yards per reception (20.5), touchdowns (4), yards per route run (3.29), and missed tackles forced (9).
In three games against FBS opponents, Bech is averaging 167.3 receiving yards. His dominance hasn’t been accurately priced in the props market yet, so I’m pouncing now before it’s too late.
TCU’s style of play is a dream for fans who like points. Sonny Dyke’s squad operates at a fast tempo (fifth nationally with 2.83 plays per minute) and has been efficient (28th in success rate), especially through the air (15th in EPA per pass, 14th in passing success rate).
Combine this with a leaky defense (32 ppg allowed, 111th in success rate) and you have the recipe for a shootout more often than not.
The Horned Frogs face a Kansas Jayhawks team in Week 5 that has a talented secondary. That being said, they take too many risks, hence their 118th ranking in passing explosiveness. Bech is ready to capitalize on any and all opportunities.
Not intended for use in MA.
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