If you told me back in August that the Clemson Tigers and the Iowa State Cyclones would meet in college football bowl season, I wouldn’t have been shocked if it was in the College Football Playoff. Instead, it’s the Cheez-It Bowl.
So, to say it has been a disappointing season for both Dabo Swinney and Matt Campbell would be an understatement. The question is, who will be the more motivated team heading into this matchup?
Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Clemson vs. Iowa State on Wednesday, December 29.
Clemson vs Iowa State odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Cyclones opened this bowl matchup as slight 1.5-point favorites and have been bet down slightly to 1. The total hit the board at 45 and the Under has seen the early action, moving the number down to 44.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Clemson vs Iowa State predictions
Predictions made on 12/23/2021 at 8:25 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Clemson vs Iowa State game info
• Location: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
• Date: Wednesday, December 29, 2021
• Time: 5:45 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Clemson vs Iowa State betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Clemson: Justyn Ross WR (Out).
Iowa State: Breece Hall RB (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 6-0 in Clemson's last six games versus Big 12 opponents and is 10-0-1 in Iowa State's last 11 neutral-site games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Clemson vs. Iowa State.
Clemson vs Iowa State picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Simply put, this bowl is an absolute mess to handicap.
It’s a new era at Clemson, as Dabo Swinney will have to solider on without both of his top assistants. Defensive coordinator Brent Venables took the top job at Oklahoma, while offensive coordinator Tony Elliot followed suit and is now the head coach at Virginia.
That’s not great news for a Clemson team that has struggled with consistency all season long, despite finishing the year 9-3. That counts as a disappointing season for a program that had won six straight ACC titles.
That said, Clemson did close the regular season with some momentum, winning five straight games, scoring 30 points or more in each game.
But while the Tigers have played better down the stretch, the play of quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei has been heavily scrutinized this season. Uiagalelei completed just 54.7 percent of his passes with only 6.0 yards per attempt and nine touchdowns compared to eight interceptions.
Meanwhile, a 7-5 record must have been incredibly disheartening for an Iowa State team that had its eyes on the Big 12 title prior to the start of the season. And while head coach Matt Campbell is sticking around (for now), it’s the end of an era in Ames.
Star running back and back-to-back Big 12 Player of the Year Breece Hall officially declared for the NFL Draft and won’t play in this bowl game. And that is a big loss for the Cyclones. Hall rushed for 1,472 yards and 20 touchdowns and was the team’s third-leading receiver with 302 yards and three more scores.
However, it sounds like quarterback Brock Purdy will play, but he’s battled consistency this season.
Clemson has the edge on defense, but Iowa State has more stability in its staff and the better quarterback play. While I don’t love either side in this bowl, the matchup has me leaning ever so slightly towards Iowa State.
Prediction: Iowa State -1 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
While the side in this game feels like a bit of a coin flip, the total seems more like a slam dunk. For starters, this game features two elite defenses.
Despite all of Clemson’s problems, defense wasn’t one of them. The Tigers ranked fifth in the country in opponent yards per play and second in scoring defense, allowing just 15 points per game. Now, they’ll face an Iowa State offense that is missing not only its best player, but one of the most talented backs in the whole country.
Clemson’s defense was awesome, but Iowa State’s isn’t far behind. The Cyclones rank 26th in opponent yards per play and 23rd in scoring defense. ISU goes against a Clemson offense that has stalled all season, ranking 95th in total offense. And even though the Tigers have been scoring lately, it has been thanks to the running game. The Cyclones allow just 3.7 yards per rush.
Scoring could be hard to come by in this one.
Prediction: Under 44 (-110)
Best bet
This bowl game looks like a perfect storm for the Under. Two elite defenses facing off against offenses that could really struggle to score. Iowa State has the better quarterback but is missing its best playmaker while Clemson has shaky quarterback play and will be without both coordinators. With both teams missing so many key pieces, the Under looks like a solid bet.
Pick: Under 44 (-110)
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Use our college football parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
