The Texas Longhorns have one goal in mind this season. A national championship. But a slumping offense and two losses to Georgia means some doubt is creeping in.
And you don’t want to give Dabo Swinney and the Clemson Tigers an opening. The Tigers might be the most surprising team in the College Football Playoff field, but if there’s someone who knows what it takes to win big games, it’s Dabo.
My Clemson vs. Texas predictions break it all down and bring you my college football picks for what should be an epic CFP first-round battle at Texas Memorial Stadium on Saturday, December 21.
Kickoff is set for 4:00 p.m. ET from DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, with the game airing on TNT.
Clemson vs Texas prediction and best bet
Clemson vs. Texas spread prediction: Clemson +12
Texas opened this first-round College football playoff matchup as 11-point home favorites and the Longhorns have seen the early action with the line moving as high as 12.5 at some sportsbooks.
A spread like this says Clemson wasn’t supposed to be here. And frankly, they weren’t. However, a late-season letdown for Miami gifted the Tigers a spot in the ACC title game and they came through with a victory.
But with Dabo on the sidelines and a stout defense, the Tigers will have a great chance to keep this game within the number.
Clemson vs. Texas moneyline prediction: Texas -450
Despite their struggles with Georgia and an offense that has scuffled the last few games, Texas is one of the favorites to win the national championship for a reason.
The Longhorns have arguably the deepest and most talented roster in the entire country. The defense is underrated and gave up more than 20 points just once this season to teams not named Georgia.
But this will come down to Quinn Ewers making a few more plays than Cade Klubnik. Texas gets the job done and earns a date with Arizona State.
Clemson vs. Texas total prediction: Under 51.5
The total hit the board at 53.5 and there has been a steady amount of action on the Under since then with the number sitting at 51.5 as of Friday afternoon.
Despite missing the best number here I’m still going with the Under. This game features two excellent defensive fronts, particularly when it comes to the pass rush. But you can also run on both teams a bit, so expect Clemson and Texas to try and establish the run.
My best bet
Quintrevion Wisner Over 83.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The Texas Longhorns took the SEC by storm in their first season in the conference. That was unless they were playing the Georgia Bulldogs.
Georgia handed Texas its only two losses of the season, the first was a meeting back on Oct. 19 in Austin, which the Bulldogs won 30-15. But the Longhorns had a chance for some revenge in the SEC Championship Game, however, they came up short once again, this time losing 22-19 in overtime.
So, Steve Sarkisian needs a big win in a big way, but a battle with Dabo Swinney and the Clemson Tigers won’t be easy.
The fact the Tigers are here is still a little shocking. Clemson had three losses on the season and were on the outside looking in at the ACC Championship before Miami fumbled the bag losing to Syracuse in the season finale as double-digit favorites.
That opened the door for Clemson, and they took advantage of the matchup with SMU. Quarterback Cade Klubnik continued his strong play this season, throwing another four touchdown passes and no picks in a 34-31 win.
That said, while Klubnik and the Tigers’ offense is tough to stop, it won’t have an easy time moving the football against an underrated Texas defense that ranks third in opponent EPA per play and 22nd in defensive success rate.
But if Texas wants to achieve its goal of winning a national championship, the offense is going to have to re-find its early-season form. The Longhorns have scored 20 points or fewer in four of their last seven games. That’s going to need to change.
I think when this season is all said and done, we’re going to find out that Quinn Ewers has been playing hurt much of the year. Either way, he’ll need to be better. But one way to help Ewers out is getting more out of the running game in big games.
In both losses to Georgia, Texas had trouble running the ball. In October, the Longhorns carried the ball 27 times for just 29 yards. It was almost as bad in the SEC Championship, where they went 28-for-31.
They know they need to be better. And it’s not like they don’t have a good running back or two. Heading into this matchup, Tre Wisner is the guy. He became the lead dog for Texas at the end of September and totaled 791 yards on 5.0 yards per carry over his last nine games.
That includes huge performances against Oklahoma, Kentucky, and Texas A&M.
And while Clemson’s defense is solid, the Tigers were gashed by the run in their three losses. South Carolina rumbled for 267 yards. Louisville went for 210. And Georgia went for 169.
Texas leans on Wisner and the run game in this matchup. Take the Over on his rushing yards set at a modest 83.5.
Clemson vs Texas same-game parlay (SGP)
Tre Wisner Over 79.5 Rushing Yards
Cade Klubnik 2+ TD Passes
Under 25.5 First Half Total
People will say Clemson won’t be able to pass against this Texas defense, but the Tigers will have to if they want to keep this game close. And having to rely on Cade Klubnik isn’t the worst option.
This was a make-or-break season for the Clemson signal caller, and it definitely landed on the make side. Klubnik threw for 3,303 yards with 33 touchdowns and just five interceptions. He’s thrown multiple touchdowns, including four in the ACC Championship Game against SMU.
You can run on Texas a bit, and I believe Clemson will lean on Phil Mafah early, but in an effort to set up the passing game as well. Give me Klubnik to toss two touchdowns in this big game.
So, now I’ve mentioned, I like both teams to run the ball and both have solid to great defenses. That sounds like a first-half Under to me.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Clemson vs Texas odds
Clemson vs Texas live odds
Clemson vs Texas opening odds
- Clemson vs. Texas spread: Texas -11
- Clemson vs. Texas moneyline: Clemson +325, Texas -425
- Clemson vs. Texas Over/Under: 53.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Clemson vs Texas spread and Over/Under analysis
- Cade Klubnik has recorded more than 1.5 passing tds in 8 of his last 10 appearances.
- Texas has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+5.05 Units / 0% ROI).
- Clemson has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 away games (+1.80 Units / 23% ROI).
- 62% of Covers Consensus users are backing Indiana on the spread, while 51% are taking the Over.
Clemson vs Texas betting trend to know
Texas has only hit the Game Total Over in five of its last 14 games for -3.80 Units and a -25% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Clemson vs Texas.
Clemson vs Texas game info
| Location: | DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-21-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT, MAX |
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