How many times can the same game “escalate quickly”? Whatever the maximum is, Georgia and Alabama exceeded it on Saturday night. That first-half blowout, dramatic comeback, and exhilarating final minutes provided more entertainment than some months of the season may.
Going into halftime, the instinct was to worry the world might overreact to the Bulldogs’ massive loss. Sometimes a rout should be only credited to one team, not also seen as a knock on the defeated. Similarly, the Tide allowing that comeback can be chalked up more to human nature than any worrying football flaw.
I'll start my Week 5 recap with that headliner as I begin Week 6 preparations to help prepare you to make your college football picks, and I'll also touch on why you should pay attention to UNLV.
College football Week 5 things you should not overreact to
Do not overreact to how bad Georgia looked early against Alabama.
Kalen DeBoer had hidden this version of quarterback Jalen Milroe thus far this season, not needing to show him off yet.
Alabama’s complete and total reliance on the veteran QB likely surprised Georgia. Coming into this game, Milroe had accounted for just 26.3% of Bama's rushing attempts and 26.4% of its rushing yards (sacks adjusted). Including passing attempts, the ball was put in his hands on 49.4% of the Tide's offensive snaps.
In Saturday night’s first half, DeBoer called seemingly every play for Milroe. Half of Alabama’s rush attempts went to the him, accounting for 67.9% of the rushing yardage. Including his 21 pass attempts (completing 18 of them), the ball was put in Milroe’s hands on 75% of the Tide’s first-half snaps.
This is remarkable.
— Ross Dellenger (@RossDellenger) September 29, 2024
Jalen Milroe was responsible for 19 of Bama's first 27 plays, completed his first 11 passes & ran it 9 times for an all-in total of 255 yards.
The Milroe PlayBy Play:
8 yards
0*
2
-
34
-
16*
7*
-
7*
-
21
19
-
3*
16
5
8
15
-
-
-
36*
21
26*
16
2*
*rushes
Kirby Smart and Georgia didn't expect that, rather understandably so. And then they did not have time to adjust. That was where the first half got out of hand.
The Bulldogs’ first three possessions accounted for a total of 10 plays and 12 yards. Because Alabama was getting the ball back so quickly, Smart couldn't scheme up adjustments for Milroe in those momentary huddles with his defense.
DeBoer should be credited for putting the Bulldogs so thoroughly on their heels. The offensive wrinkle of overemphasizing Milroe snowballed because Georgia’s season-long offensive struggles continued early on.
Auburn has no such stockpile of talent to concern the Bulldogs’ defense, certainly not at QB. Given it seemed Georgia’s offense found another gear in the second half, perhaps desperation was the mother of needed innovation to lend the betting public some confidence the Bulldogs can now cover a hefty spread next week.
Douglas' advice: Georgia will be just fine. Alabama simply got out fast. The idea of Carson Beck figuring out his 2024 offense should inspire some faith in the Bulldogs covering a sizable spread next week against Auburn. If the world overreacts to this game enough to knock that spread below -24, enjoy the world’s mistake.
Do not overreact to Alabama’s near collapse in the second half, giving up the lead after taking a 30-7 edge into halftime.
It’s human nature to ease up. Kalen DeBoer has done it for years. He got away with it against inferior competition in the Pac-12 and the Mountain West, and frankly, this was an ideal way to learn the lesson he cannot do that anymore.
By no means did DeBoer fail to tell the halftime locker room it should act like the score was 0-0. He assuredly hit the usual tropes. But those words likely rung a little hollow after the Tide burned their last halftime possession with a reverse flea flicker screen.
ALABAMA RESPONDS IMMEDIATELY!!
— Covers (@Covers) September 29, 2024
GAME OF THE YEAR!!
Live odds:
🔴 Alabama -500
⚪ Georgia +300@BetMGM pic.twitter.com/PxAffD77TD https://t.co/jaxvnws3pZ
Alabama’s first half was more aggressive than will be the norm. Milroe cannot be expected to handle 75% of the offensive load, but the Tide will also return to a competency not seen for much of that second half.
Douglas' advice: Maybe a trip to Vanderbilt is too predictably a letdown moment to side with a massive Alabama spread, but don't hesitate to back the Tide against South Carolina the week after and against Tennessee on Oct. 19. Alabama’s aggressive defense on Saturday night, in particular, should concern the Volunteers.
Do not overreact to Utah losing against Arizona in the nightcap.
The Utah Utes remain without veteran QB Cam Rising, a frustration for every earnest handicapper in the country if for no other reason than it must be constantly mentioned.
If Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham would simply rule out Rising rather than insist he's a game-time decision, articles could be so much quicker: “Rising will return after Utah’s idle week, likely playing against Arizona State on Oct. 12.”
Instead, it's been varied versions outlining the vague details of Rising’s injury, Whittingham’s history of treating the injury report as wildly fungible, and so on.
Anyway, the Utes were without Rising on Saturday night, led by true freshman Isaac Wilson. Utah’s first three possessions all had first downs inside the red zone... and they tallied three points.
Whittingham said Cam Rising was "really close" to playing. Has a week off to help with that, and they feel good about that, but he was "really close."
— Josh Furlong (@JFurKSL) September 29, 2024
That kind of failure where it matters most won't be a regular occurrence with Rising back at the controls.
The loss hurt the Utes, of course. They're no longer in pole position to reach the Big 12 title game and thus in pole position to enjoy a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff. However, they're still the best team in the conference, and their schedule looks rather favorable moving forward.
Douglas' advice: Anyone trying to convince you to consider other Big 12 futures is trying to get you to lessen your bankroll. Utah remains the only justifiable bet.
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College football Week 5 things you definitely should react to
Do overreact to UNLV’s dominant showing. The Rebels are better without quarterback Matthew Sluka.
The UNLV football program must have faced a decision tree when stonewalling former field general Matthew Sluka’s insistence he had been wronged in a NIL deal. The more time spent during the week thinking about that, the more it seemed clear the Rebels knew what they were doing.
Logic said UNLV knew it had a strong backup behind Sluka, a backup who had been QB1 in the spring and start of summer before Sluka arrived on campus.
Hajj-Malik Williams led the way Saturday in a 59-14 win against Fresno State, finishing with 182 passing yards and three touchdowns while completing 13 of his 16 passes (81.3%) and 119 rushing yards on 12 carries, another score coming on the ground. The Rebels were mere 2.5-point favorites with Williams in the lineup, but every stale number obviously won.
In three games this season, Sluka had completed 44% of his passes for 318 yards and three touchdowns.
Consider the vibes and offensive understanding needed for second-team All-American receiver Ricky White III to take the mic after a postgame press conference and suggest $100,000 not go to his former quarterback Sluka, as had been belatedly offered last week but instead to the Rebels’ offensive line.
PLEASE https://t.co/aYsftz96T4
— Ricky White lll (@Only1RW) September 28, 2024
Don't expect that to become reality. The Circa Sports offer of $100,000 to keep Sluka around was not only the incorrect number but was also made when it was quite clear Sluka and UNLV wouldn't reconcile under any circumstances. It was a marketing moment more than a genuine offer.
There may also be some issues with taking a NIL deal from a casino, even if it is the casino where the Mountain West held its media days. Ideally, the offer becomes a reality. Regardless, White’s attitude about his offense suggests the Rebels will be just fine with Williams.
Douglas' advice: Before this week, power ratings would have considered UNLV about even with its Friday opponent, Syracuse. Homefield advantage would have pushed the line to -3 or so, probably -4. Take the Rebels at anything under a touchdown. The Orange defense is going to get torched on Friday night. These vibes are too strong.
Do overreact to the problems at North Carolina.
What's more deflating: Getting blown out by an inferior opponent on your home field.... or blowing a three-possession lead against one of your biggest rivals?
North Carolina doesn't need to choose, cramming those two moments of lament into the last two weeks.
The Tar Heels held a 20-0 lead halfway through the third quarter. To that point, Duke had gained 102 yards on 38 plays — 2.68 yards per play.
The Blue Devils had gone three-and-out five times, their most successful drive gaining 47 yards before missing a field goal. Not to be too generous, but Tar Heels defensive coordinator Geoff Collins was having a great day.
But then, Duke’s next four drives gained 242 yards on 31 plays — 7.81 yards per play. The Blue Devils scored 21 points, all the points they needed to win 21-20. Not to be too harsh, but Collins looked a lot like Gene Chizik.
A week ago, UNC's failure against James Madison led head coach Mack Brown to leave plenty of doubt about his future. This collapse will only further that doubt, even if Brown didn't fan the flames on Saturday.
cause if Manny Diaz put Mack Brown out to pasture that's a boomerang that took eleven years to come all the way back around
— ¡BUM CHILLUPS AKA SPENCER HALL! (@edsbs) September 28, 2024
Douglas' advice: Pittsburgh had the week off. North Carolina effectively played to bookmakers’ expectations. The spread next week shouldn't tilt toward the Tar Heels by more than the field goal of homefield advantage. These off-field intangibles may skew it tighter, as they should at this point. Brown is clearly distracted, and Collins is failing at his job like Chizik did before him. If the Panthers are available as anything lower than field-goal favorites themselves, make that one of your first bets of the week.
Do act quickly to start your week.
By the end of Sunday, a few Week 6 picks will already populate our free picks page. The bosses insist on it to keep the page looking busy. The truth is, most college football betting should be done Sunday or Monday before lines find their form.
So Douglas’ advice is to act quickly to start your week.
Our FREE college football picks page is continuously updated with picks and predictions.
— Covers (@Covers) September 28, 2024
Over 30 picks for today's loaded CFB slate!
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