Two of the Big 12’s hottest teams square off in Week 13 as the Colorado Buffaloes face the Kansas Jayhawks at Arrowhead Stadium.
See where my Colorado vs. Kansas predictions are leaning in my early college football picks for Saturday, November 23 below.
Colorado vs Kansas predictions
Early spread lean
Kansas +3 (-110at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Kansas Jayhawks limped out of the gates to a 1-6 start with the lone win against Lindwood. They failed to cover a single spread in that period.
Fast forward to mid-November, and the Jayhawks have won three of their last four games while covering the spread each time out. Quarterback Jalon Daniels looks superb and seems fully recovered from a back injury that kept him out all of last season, and the offense is moving and grooving.
Lance Leipold’s squad ranks 19th in both EPA per play and success rate offensively. It generates a ton of push up front (fourth in line yards and stuff rate), has a star running back in Devin Neal, a very experienced receiving room, and an impact quarterback in Daniels.
The new-look Jayhawks will be tested in Week 13 against an 8-2 Colorado Buffaloes squad that's lost one game since September 14. Coach Prime has a star-studded squad led by quarterback Shedeur Sanders and wide receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter. The two-way star is sitting atop the Heisman odds at -400.
The Buffaloes have improved drastically this season by showing improvement outside of their two stars. The defense is mainly to thank, undergoing a complete revival and currently ranking 25th in EPA per play and 28th in success rate — unthinkable numbers a year ago.
Both teams have been red-hot against the spread, so something will have to give on Saturday. The Buffs are 8-0 ATS in its last eight games and the Jayhawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four.
I’m going to side with the home teams and back Kansas. I liked the value that books were offering in the Jayhawks’ last handful of games when they were treated as one of the worst teams in the conference when, in reality, they’re playing like one of the best.
Colorado is going to peak in the market eventually and I don’t believe this line would be -6 on a neutral field. Give me the home team catching points.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 59.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
So, about that Colorado defensive revival. The Buffs were a mess on that side of the ball a year ago, allowing 34.8 ppg.
Coach Prime hit the transfer portal hard and seems to have made a terrific hire in defensive coordinator Robert Livingston, and the change has been drastic. The Buffs are allowing 12 fewer ppg this year (22.7), and the strong underlying numbers back up the legitimacy of their growth.
Kansas is a wagon offensively, but it also operates at a slow tempo (107th in plays per minute). Jeff Grimes operates a methodical offensive approach that keeps the ball on the ground and the clock moving.
The Jayhawks will face a tough test against a Buffs defense that ranks 15th in rushing success rate, making this a strength-on-strength matchup. Colorado’s main deficiency on defense is a propensity for allowing big plays (94th in explosiveness), but that’s not exactly Kansas’ strength (55th in explosiveness).
On the flip side, everyone knows Sanders and Hunter are an elite combo. The Buffs’ offensive metrics are surprisingly closer to average than they are elite, checking in at 42nd in EPA per play, 44th in success rate, and 50th in explosiveness.
Colorado has notched more than 400 total yards just twice in its last five games. Kansas doesn’t have a fearsome defense, but it could match up well, given it has two impact corners (Cobee Bryant, Mello Dotson) to counteract Colorado’s passing attack.
In summary, Kansas probably finds success offensively but plays at a slow tempo. Colorado’s defense has been underrated all season and is allowing just 314 yards per game in its last four outings. Sanders and the Buffs probably find success offensively, but the underlying metrics don’t support the expectation for this unit.
Colorado vs Kansas live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
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