It’s already the college football Game of the Year and we are only in Week 5!
The Georgia Bulldogs head to Tuscaloosa to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide this Saturday, September 28, in what should be an epic SEC clash.
Bettors seem more interested in which of these SEC heavyweights should be favored, but my Georgia vs. Alabama predictions are focused squarely on the total — the first half-total to be precise.
My college football picks break down why scoring will be tight early on between the Dawgs and the Tide.
Georgia vs Alabama prediction
My best bet
Under 24 1H (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide will face off for the first time since the Crimson Tide upset the Bulldogs 27-25 as 5.5-point underdogs in last year’s SEC Championship game in what turned out to be the Dawgs' only loss of the season. It still kept them out of the College Football Playoff.
Things will be a little different in the latest chapter of this epic college football rivalry. Most notably, Nick Saban rode off into the sunset for Alabama, and in comes former Washington head coach Kalen DeBoer.
The DeBoer era in Tuscaloosa has gotten off to an impressive start. The Tide enter this huge matchup with a 3-0 record, outscoring opponents 147-26.
But while the Alabama offense has put up some big numbers, there’s no doubt they are looking for a little more consistency and a little less reliance on big plays, particularly when you consider that Bama hasn’t exactly played the toughest schedule. The Tide enter this game 34th in the country in offensive success rate.
Meanwhile, the Alabama defense may be lacking some of the star power from the last couple of seasons, but it is arguably the most rock-solid unit this team has had in years. Bama ranks second in defensive success rate and third in opponent yards per play.
That’s not a good thing for Georgia. The Bulldogs also enter this game with a 3-0 record. That includes a 34-3 beatdown of Clemson, a win which is looking better every week, but they also had to sweat out a 13-12 victory against Kentucky last time out, and it’s the offense that’s looked like the problem.
In its simplest form, it looks like Carson Beck is missing Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey, his security blankets and first-read darlings from last season. It hasn’t helped that the run game has looked stuck in the mud as well. Overall, Georgia ranks 71st in the country in offensive success rate.
Georgia has looked deliberate when it comes to its first-half play-calling in its two games vs. FBS opponents this season. That has meant more running early and has resulted in a 6-0 lead over Clemson at halftime in the Bulldogs opener while trailing Kentucky 6-3 at halftime in their latest game.
The Dawgs will want to establish the run early in this one with Trevor Etienne and try to make things a little bit easier on Beck as the game wears on.
There’s a chance DeBoer just lets the reigns drop and tells Jalen Milroe to let it fly early, but I’m expecting these SEC heavyweights to throw jabs and feel each other out early before things potentially open up more in the second half.
Georgia vs Alabama same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 49.5
Ryan Williams anytime TD
Trevor Etienne 50+ Rush Yards
BetMGM doesn’t give the option to add the first-half total to a same game-parlay, so in this instance, I’ll substitute it with the full-game total of Under 49.5.
The same principles apply here. Plus, Georgia’s defense should do a better job than most when it comes to limiting Alabama’s explosive plays. But if Alabama does hit a big play, it’s probably going to Ryan Williams.
What the freshman wide receiver is doing despite being 17 years old is incredible. Williams has caught six balls for 207 yards with three of those going for scores. Let’s add Williams as an anytime touchdown scorer.
Meanwhile, the most effective way to attack this Alabama defense seems to be on the ground. The Tide rank 46th in defensive success rate vs. the rush and as noted, I’m expecting Georgia to try and get the running game going.
Trevor Etienne came to life late in the game against Kentucky and ended up with 19 carries for 79 yards. I’m betting they keep feeding him the rock in this one too. Add him to hit the 50+ yard mark on Saturday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Georgia vs Alabama odds
Georgia vs Alabama live odds
Georgia vs Alabama opening odds
- Georgia vs. Alabama spread: Alabama +2
- Georgia vs. Alabama moneyline: Georgia -130, Alabama +110
- Georgia vs. Alabama Over/Under: 49.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Georgia vs Alabama spread and Over/Under analysis
- The line movement for this SEC battle has been wild. Bettors just can't seem to agree on who should be favored. Georgia opened as a 2-point road chalk and slowly moved to Georgia -1. Since then the line has jumped back and forth between Georgia -1, Alabama -1 and a pick'em.
- It's Georgia -1 as of late Friday afternoon, but it just tells you how little we know and how close this matchup is. Don't be surprised if the game closes as a pick'em.
- The total hit the board at 49.5 and has bounced around a bit between that and 48.5. It's back at the opening number as of late Friday afternoon.
- These SEC rivals are 3-3-1 O/U in the last seven meetings. I lean toward the full-game Under but I prefer the first-half Under because I expect the early gameplans to be fairly scripted and involve plenty of running.
Georgia vs Alabama betting trend to know
Alabama has covered the Spread in nine of their last 13 games for +4.60 Units and a 32% ROI. Georgia has only covered the spread in 6 of their last 14 games for -2.85 Units and a -18% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Georgia vs Alabama.
Georgia vs Alabama game info
| Location: | Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-28-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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