Monday Night Football begins a week early between the Louisville Cardinals and the Ole Miss Rebels. With this game being the lone college football game on Monday, these college football betting lines could change drastically within a couple of hours to kick-off.
The casual fan has no idea that they might be tuning in to watch the next Heisman award winner in Matt Corral. However, the big question is if the Cardinals can stick around - find out with our Louisville vs Ole Miss picks for Monday, September 6.
(Editor's Note: This preview was written and published prior to Saturday afternoon's news that Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin will miss Monday's game due to health and safety protocols.)
Louisville vs Ole Miss game info
• Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Monday, September 6, 2021
• Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Louisville vs Ole Miss odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Louisville vs Ole Miss betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Louisville: No Injuries Reported
Ole Miss: Bralon Brown WR (Out), Casey Kelly TE (Out)
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Rebels are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral-site games as a favorite. Find more NCAA betting trends for Louisville vs. Ole Miss.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
It’s no secret that Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin is an offensive genius. Last season, Kiffin’s Rebels scored nearly 40 points per game, averaging 6.97 yards per play. Quarterback Matt Corral completed 70.9 percent of his passes for 3,337 yards, which was good for seventh in the nation.
Seventh isn’t first, but you have to remember that Corral and Ole Miss play in the SEC against competition like Florida, Alabama, Auburn, Texas A&M and LSU.
The Rebels scored 35 against Florida, 48 against Alabama, 28 against Auburn, and 48 against LSU, yet they still lost each and every one of those games. The offense has never been the problem at Ole Miss. It’s been the defense.
Despite scoring 39.2 points per game, the defense allowed 38.3 points per game and an average of 5.29 yards on the ground per game along with 6.67 yards per play. Whatever the offense did, the defense helped to offset it. Last year was a disaster for many defenses though. The Rebels can’t be this bad on D again.
Ole Miss is coming off a win against Indiana in the Outback Bowl and allowed just 20 points in the 26-20 win. If it’s able to hold opponents to just a touchdown less per game, Ole Miss is going to see a lot more wins.
Louisville, on the other hand, will have to replace six starters on defense. Going up against this type of offense is never ideal for your first game with a totally new group. But just like Ole Miss, Louisville’s offense can be really good.
Malik Cunningham was injured most of last year, but if he’s healthy, he’s an absolute difference-maker. The media has raved about Louisville’s offensive line and thinks that Louisville can stick around in plenty of shootouts this season.
I’m not going to buy into the Louisville hype just yet. This defense allowed 47 to Miami, 46 to Georgia Tech, 42 to Virginia Tech and 34 to Boston College last year. I could only imagine how many points Ole Miss will put up in this game.
However, Louisville did show defensive potential against Notre Dame last year, losing a close battle 12-7 against the No. 4 team in the nation. Still, with an entirely new group, it’s hard to back Louisville here.
PREDICTION: Ole Miss -9.5 (-120)
Over/Under pick
I really do believe this game could be a shootout. But it’s so hard asking for 76 points in a game. You just need everything to work out perfectly to hit a total like that. I’m just not sure Louisville can stick around with Ole Miss throughout the entire game.
We’re going to see plenty of big yardage plays from both sides, but I still can’t get over how new this Louisville defense is. They’re an entirely new group of guys out there going up against one of the most potent offenses in the nation.
I teased earlier that Matt Corral could win the Heisman award this year. If he’s able to put up the same numbers as he did last year and minimize the interceptions, that’s a real possibility. Corral had 3,337 yards, 29 touchdowns along with 14 interceptions against SEC competition, while also rushing for 506 yards.
I’ll back Ole Miss on the team total of 43.5. I want nothing to do with Louisville when it comes to the total. The Cardinals could be a huge let down or the Ole Miss defense might actually just be better than last year.
PREDICTION: Ole Miss Over 43.5 Team Total (-120)
Louisville vs Ole Miss betting card
- Ole Miss -9.5 (-110)
- Ole Miss Over 43.5 Team Total (-120)
Picks made on 9/4/2021 at 8:15 a.m. ET
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