LSU vs Alabama Odds, Picks, and Predictions: High Tide Lifts All Boats

Despite this not being anywhere near one of Nick Saban’s more talented teams at Alabama, here we are, in November, and the Crimson Tide are winners of six straight and undefeated in SEC play. One of the few hurdles remaining in their path to yet another division title is Brian Kelly's LSU Tigers.

Kelly and the Tigers upset the Tide as 13.5-point home underdogs in last year’s meeting, a thrilling 32-31 overtime melee. And even with this season’s clash in Tuscaloosa, oddsmakers are betting on another close matchup between these SEC rivals with Bama sitting favored by a field goal.

Can the Crimson Tide exact some revenge and move closer to the SEC West crown? Or will the Bayou Bengals pull off another upset?

I break down the college football odds and bring you the best bet in my college football picks and predictions for LSU vs. Alabama on Saturday, November 4.

LSU vs Alabama best odds

LSU vs Alabama picks and predictions

While it hasn’t always been pretty, Alabama has responded in the best way possible to that early-season loss to Texas. 

The Crimson Tide have won six games in a row which includes them going 4-1 against the spread in SEC play. And even though this Bama offense doesn’t resemble some of the juggernauts that Nick Saban has had in the past, quarterback Jalen Milore and the Tide have made great strides.

Milroe and the Bama ground game is the motor that makes this offense run, but it’s Milroe’s explosive arm that makes the offense dangerous. He is second in the nation in yards per attempt (more on who is first in a moment), and in five conference games is completing nearly 70 percent of his passes for 1,168 yards with eight touchdowns compared to three interceptions.

And that explosive arm will have a great chance to shine vs. a vulnerable LSU defense. The Tigers rank 105th in opponent yards per play and 93rd in scrimmage plays allowed of 20+ yards. On top of that, the LSU an already struggling unit is now missing cornerbacks Zy Alexander, Denver Harris, and Duce Chestnut and star defensive lineman Mekhi Wingo. 

So, I’m betting Milroe and the Tide will be able to move the ball in this one. But they won’t be the only ones.

LSU QB Jayden Daniels is balling out right now and should not be overlooked in the Heisman conversation (his current Heisman odds are +400). Daniels leads the nation’s top-rated offense and the Tigers to a 6-2 record with the losses coming against No. 4 ranked Florida State and Mississippi. LSU ranks first in the nation in yards per game and yards per play.

Daniels himself leads the country in yards per attempt while completing 73.1% of his passes for 2,574 yards with 25 touchdowns compared to just three picks. He's also rushed for 521 yards and another five scores on the ground. He’s also got plenty of weapons at his disposal. 

Now, this Alabama defense is the best he has faced all season, but he performed well in last year's meeting with Bama throwing for 182 yards and rushing for another 95 with three total touchdowns in the win. And the Tide can be vulnerable to the deep ball ranking 85th in passing plays allowed of 30+ yards.

Thanks to Daniels and a suspect defense the Tigers have been an Over machine this season, going above the total in all eight games this season. Going against an Alabama team that should have success moving the football, I think the total is a few points too low in this epic SEC showdown.

My best bet: Over 60.5 (-106 at FanDuel) 50% boost available

Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

LSU vs Alabama same-game parlay

Over 60.5

Daniels anytime TD

Burton anytime TD

50% boost available

+400 +600 at FanDuel

As always, our same-game parlay begins with my best bet which for this SEC showdown is the Over 60.5. So, I guess that begs the question, who will do the scoring in this one? Well, we may as well start with Daniels. He has scored five times on the ground this season and did so against Alabama last year as well. So, take Daniels to score an anytime touchdown. 

And on the other side, let’s take a look at Crimson Tide wide receiver Jermaine Burton to find the end zone. Burton is Alabama’s best deep threat and Milroe’s favorite target. He averages just over 22 yards per reception and has hauled in five passes for touchdowns. With LSU vulnerable to the deep ball, I like Burton to score. Take his anytime touchdown as well. And if all three of these legs hit we cash a +400 ticket.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

LSU vs Alabama spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread for this epic SEC throwdown opened with Alabama as 3.5-point home favorites. But it is LSU that has seen the early action moving the line down to Alabama -3. 

I would have a slight lean toward Bama in this matchup because its defense which ranks 10th in opponent yards per play when facing FBS opponents should at least be able to contain Daniels and the LSU offense just a little bit. While that Tigers defense isn’t stopping any competent offense. That defense will make a play or two in a key spot

When it comes to the total it opened at an even 60 and has been bumped up slightly to 60.5. As I broke down above, I think this total is still a few points too low. I would take the Over up to 63.5.

LSU vs Alabama betting trend to know

LSU and Alabama have played to a combined 64 points per game over the last four meetings. The Over is 3-1 in those games. Find more college football betting trends for LSU vs Alabama.

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