The Florida State Seminoles will try to get their first win of the year when they host the undefeated Memphis Tigers at Doak Campbell Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
Florida State (0-2) has nearly played itself out of playoff contention already, but it is still a favorite in the college football odds against Memphis (2-0), one of the teams pegged as a contender for the Group of 5 automatic bid in the College Football Playoff.
Tensions are high for Seminoles fans, and my Memphis vs. Florida State predictions break down why the situation won't get any better in my free college football picks for September 14.
Memphis vs Florida State prediction
My best bet
Memphis +6.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Florida State supporters were rightfully concerned after an opening 24-21 loss to Georgia Tech. However, panic didn’t really set in until the Seminoles lost 28-13 at home to Boston College, a stunning upset not just because Florida State lost, but because the game was never really close.
There are complaints about nearly every aspect of the team’s performance so far, from shaky defensive efforts — especially against the run — and an inability to run the ball. But more of the ire of Seminoles fans has been the play of senior quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, who is struggling at Florida State after never truly becoming a star in earlier stints with Clemson and Oregon State.
In 2024, Uiagalelei hasn’t done anything to prove he can keep Florida State among the college football elite. He has completed just 58% of his passes, throwing just one touchdown and one interception. The Seminoles pivot hasn’t been a factor in the running game either, picking up just two yards in his first two games.
It’s possible that Uiagalelei could have more opportunities to shine against Memphis, but one of the biggest problems for the quarterback has been missing wide-open throws. The quality of the opposing secondary won’t matter much if the senior can’t deliver the ball accurately.
Florida State will even have its hands full on defense. The Seminoles haven’t stopped the run at all and now face a capable running back in Mario Anderson, who was part of a 211-yard rushing attack for the Tigers last week against Troy.
Memphis also boasts one of the most experienced quarterbacks in college football, as four-year starter Seth Henigan has thrown for over 11,000 yards and 82 touchdowns in his storied career. He won’t be afraid of airing it out against Florida State if necessary.
This is a game where the Seminoles should be on upset alert, and I wouldn’t judge anyone for betting on Memphis to win outright. I’m making a safer play in what should be a tight game, however, and taking the Tigers with the points.
Memphis vs Florida State same-game parlay (SGP)
Memphis +6.5
Under 53.5
Mario Anderson 60+ rushing yards
Both teams have hit the Under in each of their first two outings this year. The Seminoles haven’t proven they can move the ball consistently, and Memphis is facing a step up in competition which should slow down the Tigers a bit.
One area where Florida State has struggled so far this year has been in stopping the run, allowing 453 yards on the ground over its first two games. After wreaking havoc against Troy last weekend, Anderson should be a good bet to pick up at least 60 yards against the Seminoles on Saturday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Memphis vs Florida State odds
Memphis vs Florida State live odds
Memphis vs Florida State opening odds
- Spread: Memphis +5.5 (-110) | Florida State -5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Memphis +185 | Florida State -225
- Over/Under: Over 52 (-110) | Under 52 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Memphis vs Florida State spread and Over/Under analysis
- Memphis is 2-0 against the spread this year, while Florida State has gone 0-2 ATS.
- The Seminoles have a 2-6 ATS record over their last eight games dating back to last season.
- The Under cashed in every game for both teams thus far.
- The Tigers are playing to an average total of 47.5 points this season, with the Seminoles averaging an O/U of 43.
Memphis vs Florida State betting trend to know
Memphis is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall. Find more college football betting trends for Memphis vs Florida State.
Memphis vs Florida State game info
| Location: | Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-14, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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Memphis vs Florida State weather
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