Two teams coming off their first loss of the season look to turn things around Saturday when the Kansas State Wildcats host the Oklahoma State Cowboys.
These are two of this season’s Big 12 favorites, and one of them will fall to 0-2 in conference play. My Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State prediction is eyeing a tough defensive affair.
Read on for why my September 28 college football picks see less scoring than expected for these two ranked conference rivals.
Oklahoma State vs Kansas State prediction
My best bet
Under 55.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Both teams lost last week in their conference opener. The Cowboys lost a tight low-scoring game at home to Utah, 22-19, while the Wildcats got smoked at BYU in a 38-9 upset.
Kansas State will be glad to be back at home, where it defeated Arizona 31-7 in its last contest. Meanwhile, they barely beat Tulane and got destroyed by BYU in their two road games. This will be the first real test for the Cowboys on the road, as they were 17.5-point favorites in their lone road game at Tulsa.
Oklahoma State has one of the best running backs in the country in Ollie Gordon, but he‘s struggled this season and the Cowboys rank 115th in the country in rushing offense. That spells trouble facing Kansas State —one of the best rushing defenses in the country. The Wildcats rank 15th nationally in allowing only 83.2 rushing yards per game.
Both teams are excellent in the red zone on defense. Oklahoma State has allowed only five touchdowns in 14 red-zone attempts, and Kansas State has allowed only four touchdowns in 11 red-zone attempts. So even if these two teams can move the ball, they should find trouble converting their drives to touchdowns.
These two teams haven’t played a game that went Over this total of 55.5 since 2017, despite playing every year. Kansas State has only allowed 6.5 points per game in its two home games despite facing a very formidable Arizona offense.
I really like this game to be similar to Oklahoma State’s Utah contest — close, but also low-scoring throughout.
Oklahoma State vs Kansas State same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 55.5
DJ Giddens anytime touchdown
Oklahoma State +7.5
The good thing about throwing the Under in a same game parlay is you can couple an anytime touchdown and really bump up your odds. My favorite player to score here is Kansas State’s DJ Giddens. He already has two touchdowns this season and Oklahoma State has allowed six of its nine touchdowns to opposing running backs.
Finally, I will throw in an alternate spread here on the road team. I believe this will be a close game and could see the Cowboys possibly pulling off the upset. Either way, I can’t see them getting beat badly here and will take the 7.5 on the alt spread to add to this same game parlay.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Oklahoma State vs Kansas State odds
Oklahoma State vs Kansas State live odds
Oklahoma State vs Kansas State opening odds
- Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State spread: Kansas State -5.5
- Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State moneyline: Oklahoma State +180, Kansas State -225
- Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Over/Under: 51.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Oklahoma State vs Kansas State spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread opened at Kansas State -5.5 but has moved down to 4.5 as of Thursday morning.
- The winner of the game has also covered the spread in eight of the last 10 meetings.
- The total opened at 51.5 but has climbed all the way to 55.5 as of Thursday morning.
- Five of the last six meetings have gone Under the total.
Oklahoma State vs Kansas State betting trend to know
Kansas State has hit the Under in five of its last seven games at home. Find more college football betting trends for Oklahoma State vs Kansas State.
Oklahoma State vs Kansas State game info
| Location: | Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-28, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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